Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Wczorajsze publikacje ekonomiczne byly mieszane, ale restrukturyzacjacja dlugu Dubaju spowodowala spadek 200 punktowy w notowaniach CDS (Credit Default Swap) Dubaju. Innymi slowy, rynek nie widzi problemu.
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ i uwazamy, iz S&P500 moze przelamac opor na poziomie 1114 i ostatecznie przetestowac kluczowy opor na poziomie 1121 wynikajacy ze zniesien i rozszerzen Fibanacciego.
Uwaga na Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP i Bezowa Ksiege FED .
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 14:15 czasu polskiego Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP Oczekiwania: -150K Wczesniej: -203K
USA 20:00 czasu polskiego Bezowa Ksiega FED
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5752, cel 5802, Stop Loss ponizej 5727.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5283, cel 5324, Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1104, cel 1112, Stop Loss ponizej 1102.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza w opcjach o krotkim terminie wygasniecia i powinna sie wyrownac lecz jest malo prawdopodobne aby za gamme agresywnie placono w szczegolnosci w zwiazku z przygaszonymi przedzialami zmian cen na rynku fx spot.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc jest znacznie nizsza niz wczoraj, w zwiazku z kursem spot powoli pnacym sie do gory. Wiekszosc aktywnosci brokerow skupia sie na decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA 17 grudnia z kupcami zarowno poszukujacymi poziomow barier powyzej aktualnego kursu spot jak i ponizej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Tak dlugo jak kurs znajduje sie powyzej wsparcia na 86.55-60 istnieje ryzyko odbicia do 87.15 mozliwy wzrost do 87.55 zanim ruch wzrostowy zostanie zniesiony.
EURJPY: Ma potencjal wzrostowy lecz moze miec problem z pokonaniem 131.65. Sugerujemy rozgrywanie przedzialu 130.75-131.75.
GBPUSD: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1.6565 lub kup wybicie powyzej 1.6640, ktore moze spowodowac test 1.67. Stop loss ponizej 1.6515.
AUDUSD: Kupuj na spadkach lub wybicie ponad 0.9305 z celem na 0.9350.
EURPLN: opor 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0920 silne, 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne. Odbicie od piatkowego maks 4.1980 kieruje sie w rejon min pomiedzy 4.0920/4.0635. Ponizej moze owtorzyc droge w kierunku 4.000 (poziom psychologiczny). Powyzej 4.1710 moze otworzyc droge do 4.1980.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1208, cel 1220. Stop loss ponizej 1200.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kup przelamanie poziomu 19.37, cel 19.50. Stop loss ponizej 19.30.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup przelamanie poziomu 78.60, cel 80, Stop loss ponizej 78.
środa, 2 grudnia 2009
2/12 Daily Comment
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
poniedziałek, 30 listopada 2009
30/11 Weekly Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Trader, Saxo Bank
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.pl
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.pl
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Bank Centralny Zjednoczonych Emiratow Arabskich zapewnil dodatkowa plynnosc dla instytucji finansowych w regionie podczas weekendu.
Cadbury – JPM and BofA sa gotowe pozyczyc grupie Hershey wiecej niz 7bn USD, celem ma byc przebicie oferty Krafta wartej 16.2 bn usd – Hershey chce zaoferowac 17 bn usd.
Japonski MF zaprzeczyl, ze kiedykolwiek stwierdzil , iz interwencja na rynku Forex jest niemozliwa.
Przedstawiciel Banku Japonii Shirakawa – bacznie obserwujemy jaki wplyw na korporacyjny sentyment ma wzrost wartosci JPY, gdy bedzie taka potrzeba bedziemy reagowac zdecydowanie.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
CAD 14:30 ( polskiego czasu ) PKB ( kw/kw - za 3 kw ) przew. 1.0%
USD 15:45 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik Chicago PMI ( za listopad ) przew. 53.5
USD 16:30 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik aktywnosci w rejonie Dallas prze. 0%
Indeksy
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj: Kupuj na dolech.
DAX: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5710, cel 5755. Stop Loss ponizej 5686.
FTSE: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5287, cel 5327. Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj po pokonaniu 1096, cel 1103, Stop Loss ponizej 1093.
Waluty
EURUSD: Potrzeba przelamania wsparcia w okolicach 1.5000 aby dalsze spadki byly mozliwe, przewidujemy 1.50-1.51
EURPLN: opor 4.1975, 4.2127 mocny, 4.2365. Wsparcie 4.0920 mocne, 4.0742 mocne, 4.0635 mocne.
Zeszlotygodniowe wzrosty w okolice 4.1633 potwierdzily wyższy dolek na poziomie 4.0920 z możliwością wzrostow w kierunku 4.2740. Spadki poznizej 4.0920 zaneguja ten byczy scenariusz.
USDPLN: opor 2.8296, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7515 , 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne.
Wzrosty powyżej 2.81 umozliwia wzrosty w kierunku 2.8720, a nawet 2.9498, zamkniecie ponad tym poziomem spowoduje zmiane trendu średnioterminowego.
USDJPY: W krotkim terminie szczyt na 87.40. Preferujemy sprzedaz na zrostach kierunku 87.15, cel 85.70, Stop Loss powyżej 87.55.
EURJPY: Odbicie prawdopodobnie napotka opor w okolicach 130.80. Preferujemy krotkie pozycje z celem na poziomie 129.35, Stop Loss powyżej 131.10
GBPUSD: Sprzedaj na wzrostach w kierunku1.6585, cel 1.6470, Stop Loss powyżej 1.6640
AUDUSD: Kupuj na dolkach w kierunku 0.9100, cel 0.9190, Stop Loss poniżej 0.9075
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na dolech w kierunku 1165, cel 1180, Stop Loss ponizej 1158.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 18.00, cel 17.75, Stop Loss powyzej 18.10
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po przelamaniu 76.70, cel 78.50, Stop Loss ponizej 75.75.
Przygotował Zespół Saxo Bank
Cadbury – JPM and BofA sa gotowe pozyczyc grupie Hershey wiecej niz 7bn USD, celem ma byc przebicie oferty Krafta wartej 16.2 bn usd – Hershey chce zaoferowac 17 bn usd.
Japonski MF zaprzeczyl, ze kiedykolwiek stwierdzil , iz interwencja na rynku Forex jest niemozliwa.
Przedstawiciel Banku Japonii Shirakawa – bacznie obserwujemy jaki wplyw na korporacyjny sentyment ma wzrost wartosci JPY, gdy bedzie taka potrzeba bedziemy reagowac zdecydowanie.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
CAD 14:30 ( polskiego czasu ) PKB ( kw/kw - za 3 kw ) przew. 1.0%
USD 15:45 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik Chicago PMI ( za listopad ) przew. 53.5
USD 16:30 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik aktywnosci w rejonie Dallas prze. 0%
Indeksy
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj: Kupuj na dolech.
DAX: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5710, cel 5755. Stop Loss ponizej 5686.
FTSE: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5287, cel 5327. Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj po pokonaniu 1096, cel 1103, Stop Loss ponizej 1093.
Waluty
EURUSD: Potrzeba przelamania wsparcia w okolicach 1.5000 aby dalsze spadki byly mozliwe, przewidujemy 1.50-1.51
EURPLN: opor 4.1975, 4.2127 mocny, 4.2365. Wsparcie 4.0920 mocne, 4.0742 mocne, 4.0635 mocne.
Zeszlotygodniowe wzrosty w okolice 4.1633 potwierdzily wyższy dolek na poziomie 4.0920 z możliwością wzrostow w kierunku 4.2740. Spadki poznizej 4.0920 zaneguja ten byczy scenariusz.
USDPLN: opor 2.8296, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7515 , 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne.
Wzrosty powyżej 2.81 umozliwia wzrosty w kierunku 2.8720, a nawet 2.9498, zamkniecie ponad tym poziomem spowoduje zmiane trendu średnioterminowego.
USDJPY: W krotkim terminie szczyt na 87.40. Preferujemy sprzedaz na zrostach kierunku 87.15, cel 85.70, Stop Loss powyżej 87.55.
EURJPY: Odbicie prawdopodobnie napotka opor w okolicach 130.80. Preferujemy krotkie pozycje z celem na poziomie 129.35, Stop Loss powyżej 131.10
GBPUSD: Sprzedaj na wzrostach w kierunku1.6585, cel 1.6470, Stop Loss powyżej 1.6640
AUDUSD: Kupuj na dolkach w kierunku 0.9100, cel 0.9190, Stop Loss poniżej 0.9075
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na dolech w kierunku 1165, cel 1180, Stop Loss ponizej 1158.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 18.00, cel 17.75, Stop Loss powyzej 18.10
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po przelamaniu 76.70, cel 78.50, Stop Loss ponizej 75.75.
Przygotował Zespół Saxo Bank
piątek, 27 listopada 2009
27/11 Daily Comment
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.
All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.
Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.
A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:
USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.
USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.
EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.
AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.
GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.
Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.
Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.
The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.
European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3
UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6
The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.
All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.
Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.
A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:
USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.
USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.
EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.
AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.
GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.
Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.
Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.
The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.
European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3
UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6
czwartek, 26 listopada 2009
26/11 Daily commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving ventral banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
www.saxobank.pl
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving ventral banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
www.saxobank.pl
poniedziałek, 23 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Cena zlota ustanawia nowe rekordy a rynki azjatyckie wzrosly. AUD i NZD wyzej przez weekend. S&P 500 takze wzrasta. 10-letnia prognozowana stopa inflacji znajduje sie w okolicach 2.2% (pozytywny sygnal dla wzrostow na gieldach).
Rynki nadal sa otwarte na ryzyko i nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ w kierunku wsparcia na S&P500 na poziomie 1084.
Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtornym moze spowodowac wzrosty na rynkach akcji. Oczekujemy pozytywnej niespodzianki.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtórnym Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 2,3% Wczesniej: 9.4% SAXO BANK OCZEKUJE: 3.6%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5599, cel 5657. Stop Loss ponizej 5566.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku poziomu 5214, cel 5256. Stop Loss ponizej 5194.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1086, cel 1096, Stop Loss ponizej 1083.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosci wzrosly w piatek wskutek poglosek o duzej opcji typu DOUBLE NO TOUCH z bariera na poziomie 1.48
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz aktualne wzrosty wyhamuja w okolicach poziomu 1.4960 by przetestowac 1.4840. Stop ponownie powyzej 1,5015.
EURPLN: opor 4.1633 silny, 4.1850, 4.2127 silny. Wsparcie 4.0990, 4.0800, 4.0742 silne. Korekta w zeszlym tygodniu zaczela sie wypalac. Opor ok 4.1825 moze byc gornym limitem przed spadkiem przez 4.0635.
USDPLN: opor 2.7978, 2.8100 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7285, 2.7110, 2.7080 silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Potencjalny poziom maks na 2.8100 przed możliwym spadkiem w kierunku 2.6090.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1150 (luka), cel 1161, Stop ponizej 1147.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 18.50, cel: 18.,7 Stop Loss ponizej 18.40.
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupuj po przelamaniu 78.65, cel 80. Stop Loss ponizej 78.10.
Cena zlota ustanawia nowe rekordy a rynki azjatyckie wzrosly. AUD i NZD wyzej przez weekend. S&P 500 takze wzrasta. 10-letnia prognozowana stopa inflacji znajduje sie w okolicach 2.2% (pozytywny sygnal dla wzrostow na gieldach).
Rynki nadal sa otwarte na ryzyko i nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ w kierunku wsparcia na S&P500 na poziomie 1084.
Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtornym moze spowodowac wzrosty na rynkach akcji. Oczekujemy pozytywnej niespodzianki.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtórnym Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 2,3% Wczesniej: 9.4% SAXO BANK OCZEKUJE: 3.6%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5599, cel 5657. Stop Loss ponizej 5566.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku poziomu 5214, cel 5256. Stop Loss ponizej 5194.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1086, cel 1096, Stop Loss ponizej 1083.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosci wzrosly w piatek wskutek poglosek o duzej opcji typu DOUBLE NO TOUCH z bariera na poziomie 1.48
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz aktualne wzrosty wyhamuja w okolicach poziomu 1.4960 by przetestowac 1.4840. Stop ponownie powyzej 1,5015.
EURPLN: opor 4.1633 silny, 4.1850, 4.2127 silny. Wsparcie 4.0990, 4.0800, 4.0742 silne. Korekta w zeszlym tygodniu zaczela sie wypalac. Opor ok 4.1825 moze byc gornym limitem przed spadkiem przez 4.0635.
USDPLN: opor 2.7978, 2.8100 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7285, 2.7110, 2.7080 silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Potencjalny poziom maks na 2.8100 przed możliwym spadkiem w kierunku 2.6090.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1150 (luka), cel 1161, Stop ponizej 1147.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 18.50, cel: 18.,7 Stop Loss ponizej 18.40.
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupuj po przelamaniu 78.65, cel 80. Stop Loss ponizej 78.10.
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