Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.
Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).
On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.
In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.
The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.
To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.
wtorek, 15 grudnia 2009
poniedziałek, 14 grudnia 2009
14/12 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…
It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….
Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;
• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC
None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:
EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.
GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.
USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.
AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!
USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.
Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.
This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.
Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…
It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….
Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;
• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC
None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:
EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.
GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.
USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.
AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!
USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.
Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.
This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.
piątek, 11 grudnia 2009
11/12 Daily market commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.
If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.
The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.
On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.
With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;
EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.
GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.
USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.
AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.
USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.
EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.
That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.
And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.
If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.
The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.
On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.
With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;
EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.
GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.
USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.
AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.
USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.
EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.
That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.
Obserwuj zachowanie dolara po danych dotyczących sprzedaży detalicznej
Co się dzieje?
Lepsze dane z Chin ( wzrost gospodarczy + produkcja ) mogą spowodować powrót apetytu na ryzyko, głównymi beneficjentami mogą być: ropa i zloto.
Korporacyjne CDS w dolarach spready obligacji korporacyjnych zawężają się coraz bardziej. Powrót apetytu na ryzyko może zostac w pełni odbudowany jesli kurs EURUSD powróci i zdoła się utrzymać powyżej 1.4856 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca ). Zapalnikiem w dniu dzisiejszym mogą być dane z USA dotyczące sprzedaży detalicznej
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.67%, SP500 +0.58%, NASD +0.33% ), japoński NIKKEI 225 +2.48%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kalendarium
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrócić uwagę na sprzedaż detaliczną z USA i reakcję dolara na te dane.
UK godz. 10:30 polskiego czasu - Inflacja PPI
ECB godz. 13:15 polskiego czasu - wystąpienie Tricheta
POLSKA godz. 14:00 polskiego czasu - Bilans handlowy
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Sprzedaż detaliczna
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - U. Michigan.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krótką stronę w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670. Oporem 55-dniowa średnia krocząca
USDJPY: Wzrosty mogą być kontynuowane. Kupno na dołkach ( okolice 88.60 ), oczekujemy pokonania 89.07 ( tygodniowy pivot ).
EURJPY: Możliwe wzrosty – korekta.
GBPUSD: Wybicie dołem ponizej 1.6250 nie bylo trwale. Konsolidacja – możliwy ruch w gorę w kierunku 1.6380 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca)
EURPLN: opór 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przełamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia się na wydłuzenie trendu niedźwiedzia. Jeśli obecne ożywienie zatrzyma się poniżej 4.1975, wówczas niedźwiedzie są nadal faworyzowane ( niższy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opór 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje się nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym może być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamknięcia )
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indeksy giełdowe
DAX: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5735, cel 5770. Stop loss poniżej 5722.
FTSE: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5257, cel 5288. Stop loss poniżej 5241.
S&P500: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1105, cel 1110. Stop loss poniżej 1101.
NADAQ 100: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1802, cel 1808. Stop loss poniżej 1798.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kontrakty Futures:
ZłOTO: Kupuj w okolicach połomu 1135, cel 1150. Stop loss poniżej 1129.
SREBRO: Kupuj na przełamaniu 17.50, cel 17.70. Stop loss poniżej 17.40.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj w okolicach 71, cel 73. Stop loss poniżej 70.10.
Lepsze dane z Chin ( wzrost gospodarczy + produkcja ) mogą spowodować powrót apetytu na ryzyko, głównymi beneficjentami mogą być: ropa i zloto.
Korporacyjne CDS w dolarach spready obligacji korporacyjnych zawężają się coraz bardziej. Powrót apetytu na ryzyko może zostac w pełni odbudowany jesli kurs EURUSD powróci i zdoła się utrzymać powyżej 1.4856 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca ). Zapalnikiem w dniu dzisiejszym mogą być dane z USA dotyczące sprzedaży detalicznej
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.67%, SP500 +0.58%, NASD +0.33% ), japoński NIKKEI 225 +2.48%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kalendarium
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrócić uwagę na sprzedaż detaliczną z USA i reakcję dolara na te dane.
UK godz. 10:30 polskiego czasu - Inflacja PPI
ECB godz. 13:15 polskiego czasu - wystąpienie Tricheta
POLSKA godz. 14:00 polskiego czasu - Bilans handlowy
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Sprzedaż detaliczna
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - U. Michigan.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krótką stronę w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670. Oporem 55-dniowa średnia krocząca
USDJPY: Wzrosty mogą być kontynuowane. Kupno na dołkach ( okolice 88.60 ), oczekujemy pokonania 89.07 ( tygodniowy pivot ).
EURJPY: Możliwe wzrosty – korekta.
GBPUSD: Wybicie dołem ponizej 1.6250 nie bylo trwale. Konsolidacja – możliwy ruch w gorę w kierunku 1.6380 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca)
EURPLN: opór 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przełamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia się na wydłuzenie trendu niedźwiedzia. Jeśli obecne ożywienie zatrzyma się poniżej 4.1975, wówczas niedźwiedzie są nadal faworyzowane ( niższy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opór 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje się nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym może być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamknięcia )
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indeksy giełdowe
DAX: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5735, cel 5770. Stop loss poniżej 5722.
FTSE: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5257, cel 5288. Stop loss poniżej 5241.
S&P500: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1105, cel 1110. Stop loss poniżej 1101.
NADAQ 100: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1802, cel 1808. Stop loss poniżej 1798.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kontrakty Futures:
ZłOTO: Kupuj w okolicach połomu 1135, cel 1150. Stop loss poniżej 1129.
SREBRO: Kupuj na przełamaniu 17.50, cel 17.70. Stop loss poniżej 17.40.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj w okolicach 71, cel 73. Stop loss poniżej 70.10.
czwartek, 10 grudnia 2009
Obserwuj wnioski o zasiłek dla bezrobotnych z USA
Przygotowal Piotr Wilczynski
Tytul: Obserwuj wnioski o zasilek dla bezrobotnych z USA
Lead: Duzo lepsze od oczekiwan dane dotyczace bezrobocia z Australii.
Jastrzebi ton ze strony RBNZ, dolar nowozelandzki zyskal prawie 2 figury w stosunku do lokalnego rywala.
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.5%, SP500 +0.37%, NASD +0.49% ), japonski NIKKEI 225 -1,42%
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrocic uwage na cotygodniowe dane z USA dotyczace wnioskow o zasilek dla bezrobotnych.
Wielka Brytania godz. 13.00 polskiego czasu – BOE decyzja w spraše
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Wnioski o zasilki dla bezrobotnych
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - Wystapienie Geithnera
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krotka strone w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670.
USDJPY: Preferujemy dlugie pozycje, ale interesuje nas dobra cena ( byc moze sa to okolice poziomu 87 ).
EURJPY: Preferujemy krotka strone rynku.
GBPUSD: Krotkie pozycje w okolicach 1.63, ewentualny cel to poziomy zblikne do 1.6000, 55-dniowa srednia kroczaca – 1.6375 ( ryzyko dla niedzwiedzi to przejecia i akwizycje )
EURPLN: opor 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przelamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia sie na wydluzenie trendu niedzwiedzia. Jesli obecne ozywienie zatrzyma sie ponizej 4.1975, wowczas niedziwiedzie sa nadal faworyzowane ( nizszy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opor 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje sie nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym moze być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamkniecia )
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5714, cel 5668. Stop loss powyzej 5736.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5246, cel 5217. Stop loss powyzej 5259.
S&P500: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1101, cel 1095. Stop loss powyzej 1105.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1135, cel 1125. Stop loss powyzej 1141.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 17.30, cel 17.12. Stop loss powyzej 17.41.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 70.13, cel 69.25. Stop loss ponizej 70.50.
Tytul: Obserwuj wnioski o zasilek dla bezrobotnych z USA
Lead: Duzo lepsze od oczekiwan dane dotyczace bezrobocia z Australii.
Jastrzebi ton ze strony RBNZ, dolar nowozelandzki zyskal prawie 2 figury w stosunku do lokalnego rywala.
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.5%, SP500 +0.37%, NASD +0.49% ), japonski NIKKEI 225 -1,42%
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrocic uwage na cotygodniowe dane z USA dotyczace wnioskow o zasilek dla bezrobotnych.
Wielka Brytania godz. 13.00 polskiego czasu – BOE decyzja w spraše
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Wnioski o zasilki dla bezrobotnych
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - Wystapienie Geithnera
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krotka strone w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670.
USDJPY: Preferujemy dlugie pozycje, ale interesuje nas dobra cena ( byc moze sa to okolice poziomu 87 ).
EURJPY: Preferujemy krotka strone rynku.
GBPUSD: Krotkie pozycje w okolicach 1.63, ewentualny cel to poziomy zblikne do 1.6000, 55-dniowa srednia kroczaca – 1.6375 ( ryzyko dla niedzwiedzi to przejecia i akwizycje )
EURPLN: opor 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przelamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia sie na wydluzenie trendu niedzwiedzia. Jesli obecne ozywienie zatrzyma sie ponizej 4.1975, wowczas niedziwiedzie sa nadal faworyzowane ( nizszy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opor 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje sie nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym moze być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamkniecia )
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5714, cel 5668. Stop loss powyzej 5736.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5246, cel 5217. Stop loss powyzej 5259.
S&P500: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1101, cel 1095. Stop loss powyzej 1105.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1135, cel 1125. Stop loss powyzej 1141.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 17.30, cel 17.12. Stop loss powyzej 17.41.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 70.13, cel 69.25. Stop loss ponizej 70.50.
10/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.
More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.
This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp). Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.
With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.
On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….
Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.
No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.
Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.
Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.
More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.
This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp). Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.
With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.
On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….
Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.
No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.
Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.
środa, 9 grudnia 2009
9/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Fairly quiet night again overnight, however worth noting is the underperformance in Asian equity markets and the slightly offered tone on US equity indices also. Not surprising in the scheme of things really as more bad news hit the wires over the last 18 hours all of which relating in most part to the down grading of sovereign credit ratings, notably Greece. Equally important in this recent bout of “risk off” were renewed fears on the health of Dubai and its mounting debt problems.
Subsequently we have seen the DXY push to fresh highs as the EUR and Cable were sold off heavily. The only real positive movers were the AUD and NZD dollars. Price action here is a little confusing given the second month in a row of worse than expected consumer sentiment in Australia, I do think though that all of this does need to be taken with a pinch of salt and as far as these currencies are concerned tonight marks crunch time for them as the RBNZ speaks and the Australians have their unemployment data out.
Elsewhere the USDJPY has given back all the gains it made post NFP last week and now continues to look heavy reaching in the interim for the 87.30 support and further out even lower into 86.50. Cable though has been the standout with the downside cleanout being helped along by renewed sovereign debt/rating fears as well as a multitude of stops from a retail market that has been stubbornly long the cross until now. I still think this thing pitches lower and while it may find some very short term support this will only serve as a small short term tech correction before we continue lower.
I target 1.5700 by the end of January. Today we have Darling speaking and giving the preliminary budget report with talk that he’ll be far more verbose today than usual and this could give more impetus for a sell on rallies in the Cable.
The EURUSD is bouncing at the time of print but similarly to the Cable I use this as an opportunity to sell the cross looking for a decisive move towards 1.4620 initial medium term support.
On the USDCAD the price action seems to be erratic at best but I hold off doing anything of real value until we exhaust this move higher into 1.0700/30 and then look to sell all the way back down to 1.0430/50.
All quiet on the western front otherwise at the moment and if nothing else liquidity issues as starting to play a role in the lead up to the year end.
Fairly quiet night again overnight, however worth noting is the underperformance in Asian equity markets and the slightly offered tone on US equity indices also. Not surprising in the scheme of things really as more bad news hit the wires over the last 18 hours all of which relating in most part to the down grading of sovereign credit ratings, notably Greece. Equally important in this recent bout of “risk off” were renewed fears on the health of Dubai and its mounting debt problems.
Subsequently we have seen the DXY push to fresh highs as the EUR and Cable were sold off heavily. The only real positive movers were the AUD and NZD dollars. Price action here is a little confusing given the second month in a row of worse than expected consumer sentiment in Australia, I do think though that all of this does need to be taken with a pinch of salt and as far as these currencies are concerned tonight marks crunch time for them as the RBNZ speaks and the Australians have their unemployment data out.
Elsewhere the USDJPY has given back all the gains it made post NFP last week and now continues to look heavy reaching in the interim for the 87.30 support and further out even lower into 86.50. Cable though has been the standout with the downside cleanout being helped along by renewed sovereign debt/rating fears as well as a multitude of stops from a retail market that has been stubbornly long the cross until now. I still think this thing pitches lower and while it may find some very short term support this will only serve as a small short term tech correction before we continue lower.
I target 1.5700 by the end of January. Today we have Darling speaking and giving the preliminary budget report with talk that he’ll be far more verbose today than usual and this could give more impetus for a sell on rallies in the Cable.
The EURUSD is bouncing at the time of print but similarly to the Cable I use this as an opportunity to sell the cross looking for a decisive move towards 1.4620 initial medium term support.
On the USDCAD the price action seems to be erratic at best but I hold off doing anything of real value until we exhaust this move higher into 1.0700/30 and then look to sell all the way back down to 1.0430/50.
All quiet on the western front otherwise at the moment and if nothing else liquidity issues as starting to play a role in the lead up to the year end.
Subskrybuj:
Posty (Atom)
Posty
