Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Wczorajszy wskaznik ISM dla sektora uslugowego (ISM Non-Manufacturing) byl wystarczajaco zly by spowodowac szeroko zakrojona redukcje ryzyka. W zwiazku ze spadkiem notowan rzadowych i korporacyjnych CDS (Credit Default Swaps) mozemy zobaczyc odbicie w apetycie na ryzyko przed danymi o rynku pracy z USA. Aczkolwiek uwazamy, iz rynek pracy zawiedzie i w zwiazku z tym nalezy realizowac zyski lub otwierac krotkie pozycje przed publikacja.
Konferencja prasowa ECB w dniu wczorajszym wskazywala, iz podejmuje on drobne kroki w kierunku normalizacji polityki pienieznej. Kurs EUR wzrosl po tej informacji, ale Trichet w ciagly podkreslal, iz zmiana w 1-rocznej, 1% linii kredytowej nie powinna byc widziana w ten sposob – kurs EUR spadl po tej informacji. Jest trudno jednak zaprzeczyc, iz FED jest przed ECB w tym cyklu i oczekujemy, ze USD bedzie znajdowal sie ponownie pod presja w nastepnym tygodniu.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym (LISTOPAD) SAXO BANK Oczekuje: -139000 Konsensus: -125000 Wczesniej: -190000
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Wskaznik bezrobocia (LISTOPAD) SAXO BANK Oczekuje: 10.3% Konsensus: 10.2% Wczesniej: 10.2%
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Zamowienia w przemysle miesiac-do-miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) SAXO BANK Oczekuje: -0.3% Konsensus: 0.0% Wczesniej: 0.9%
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5763, cel 5700, Stop loss powyzej 5786.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na wrostach w kierunku 5305, cel 5229, Stop loss powyzej 5333.
S&P500: Sprzedaj przelamanie poziomu 1097, cel 1089. Stop loss powyzej 1102.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest ponownie nizsza a ECB nie dal wielkiego impetu. Z rynkiem nastawionym na spadek Gamma w tym przedziale, jakakolwiek niespodzianka w danych o zatrudnieniu w USA moze spowodowac wzrost zmiennosci.
AUDUSD: 1-miesieczne opcje znajdywaly dzisiejszego ranka kupcow, w gore z 13.5 do 13.65. Zauwazylismy zainteresowanie kupnem AUD opcji sprzedazy z poziomami barier ponizej aktualnego kursu SPOT po decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA.
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj wzrosty do 1.5080 z celem ponizej 1.50. Stop loss powyzej 1.5150.
USDJPY: Odbicie moze rozszerzyc sie do 88.50, mozliwy poziom 88.75 przed potencjalnymi spadkami. Wsparcie na 87.90.
EURJPY: Spodziewamy sie dalszej konsolidacji w przedziale 132.00-133.00
GBPUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz opor na 1.6580, ograniczy wzrosty by zapoczatkowach ruch spadkowy do 1.6460. Stop loss powyzej 1.6620.
AUDUSD: Oczekujemy, iz wsparcie na poziomie 0.9195 utrzyma sie lecz pozniej spodziewamy sie trendu bocznego w przedziale 0.92-0.9275.
EURPLN: opor 4.1210, 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4,00/01 – psychologiczne. Przelamanie wsparcia na poziomie 4.0920 otwiera możliwość testu poziomu 4.0740/4.0635 oraz psychologicznego poziomu 4.00. Scenariusz taki może zostac zanegowany zanegowany powyżej poziomu 4.17.
USDPLN: opor 2.7390, 2.7835, 2.8350 silny. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Surowce:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu poziomu 1200, cel 1185. Stop loss powyzej 1206.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 19.10, cel 18.80. Stop loss powyzej 19.25.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 77.25, cel 74.50. Stop loss powyzej 78.50.
piątek, 4 grudnia 2009
4/12 Watch out for Non-farm payrolls this afternoon (daily comment)
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
Feeling a little more subdued this morning and quite happy that its Friday, and better still a Friday that features the NFP numbers this afternoon. All in all that simply means that a market which was deathly quiet overnight will continue in the same vein until this afternoon when the market gets all giddy with nervous anticipation waiting to find out just how deep in the proverbial toilet the US really is.
Estimates on the street are pointing to a smaller (better) number on the actual change, but also a worse number on the overall official rate rising towards 10.3/4%. I (surprisingly even for me) expect a rather flat number and somewhat of an anticlimax to the whole event.
I think the rate will stay around the same level while the number might actually print a larger positive than the market anticipates (chances are though this will be eroded with revisions).
It really is all quiet on the western front otherwise, as the market is in no rush to commit to anything really fundamental relating to FX moves and the equity markets are running out of puff but still showing a bid tone coming into year end.
With regard the majors I see the following unfold into the weekend and perhaps into the early parts of next week;
USDJPY: It seems like the jawboning continues out of the officials down there, but for a change there seems to be some (if not limited) back up to it in the form of additional liquidity being thrown into the system. They claim this isn’t the end of it but until I see anything more firm I believe that further Yen weakness is limited and what we’ve seen so far t his week is simply a small clean out. We need to see 90.30/80 cleared and closed above on a daily basis to confirm that this intermediate downtrend is in fact over. I remain skeptical and therefore bearish the cross, sell rallies is the call and don’t be shy about scaling in. Targets remain the previous lows into 85.00
GBPUSD: I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today the Cable trades a range and I am a seller of the Cable strength into 1.6750/6800 targets on the bottom end are 1.6550 and 1.6470. It worked yesterday and believe it will continue to work, a seemingly easy way to earn approximately 1.75% on the move. The only cautionary note is that while it is indeed a range, I only play the sell side, as I fundamentally believe that the risk is for a breakout from 1.6470 into at least 1.6250.
EURUSD: This puppy is running out of puff, but having said that as I have maintained all week, pullbacks may prove to be deeper than anticipated into 1.4850, but even these provide good opportunities to gear up again into fresh longs with the topside limited into 1.5160/5200.
AUDUSD: Topside is limited at 0.9330/60 and I fade the move higher looking for retracements into 0.9150 and lower. There is plenty of hype around this cross, but being Australian myself I am naturally hesitant to believe it all or get caught up in the euphoria.
USDCAD: The good thing about coming into year end is that without any real commitment from market participants crosses naturally fall into ranges, and in the case of the USDCAD there is no exception I still sell 1.0700/0800 and buy it back at 1.0430/50. Not unlike the Cable though I only play this range from the short side.
To all I say a good weekend and safe helmet wearing.
Feeling a little more subdued this morning and quite happy that its Friday, and better still a Friday that features the NFP numbers this afternoon. All in all that simply means that a market which was deathly quiet overnight will continue in the same vein until this afternoon when the market gets all giddy with nervous anticipation waiting to find out just how deep in the proverbial toilet the US really is.
Estimates on the street are pointing to a smaller (better) number on the actual change, but also a worse number on the overall official rate rising towards 10.3/4%. I (surprisingly even for me) expect a rather flat number and somewhat of an anticlimax to the whole event.
I think the rate will stay around the same level while the number might actually print a larger positive than the market anticipates (chances are though this will be eroded with revisions).
It really is all quiet on the western front otherwise, as the market is in no rush to commit to anything really fundamental relating to FX moves and the equity markets are running out of puff but still showing a bid tone coming into year end.
With regard the majors I see the following unfold into the weekend and perhaps into the early parts of next week;
USDJPY: It seems like the jawboning continues out of the officials down there, but for a change there seems to be some (if not limited) back up to it in the form of additional liquidity being thrown into the system. They claim this isn’t the end of it but until I see anything more firm I believe that further Yen weakness is limited and what we’ve seen so far t his week is simply a small clean out. We need to see 90.30/80 cleared and closed above on a daily basis to confirm that this intermediate downtrend is in fact over. I remain skeptical and therefore bearish the cross, sell rallies is the call and don’t be shy about scaling in. Targets remain the previous lows into 85.00
GBPUSD: I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today the Cable trades a range and I am a seller of the Cable strength into 1.6750/6800 targets on the bottom end are 1.6550 and 1.6470. It worked yesterday and believe it will continue to work, a seemingly easy way to earn approximately 1.75% on the move. The only cautionary note is that while it is indeed a range, I only play the sell side, as I fundamentally believe that the risk is for a breakout from 1.6470 into at least 1.6250.
EURUSD: This puppy is running out of puff, but having said that as I have maintained all week, pullbacks may prove to be deeper than anticipated into 1.4850, but even these provide good opportunities to gear up again into fresh longs with the topside limited into 1.5160/5200.
AUDUSD: Topside is limited at 0.9330/60 and I fade the move higher looking for retracements into 0.9150 and lower. There is plenty of hype around this cross, but being Australian myself I am naturally hesitant to believe it all or get caught up in the euphoria.
USDCAD: The good thing about coming into year end is that without any real commitment from market participants crosses naturally fall into ranges, and in the case of the USDCAD there is no exception I still sell 1.0700/0800 and buy it back at 1.0430/50. Not unlike the Cable though I only play this range from the short side.
To all I say a good weekend and safe helmet wearing.
czwartek, 3 grudnia 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Przygotowal Piotr Wilczynski
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Uwazamy , ze dane dotyczace nowych wnioskow o zasilek beda lepsze od oczekiwan ( ze wzgledu na krotszy zeszly tydzien ), jednak sugerujemy realizacje z dlužich pozycji tuz przed publikacja ISM w sektorze uslug ( wg. Odczyt bedzie slabszy )
Pierwszy raz od dluzszego czasu EUR bedzie w centrum uwagi, ze wzgledu na odczyt PKB za 3 kw., Sprzedaz detaliczna oraz decyzje ECB w sprawie stop procentowych ( zwlaszcza podczas konferencji Tricheta spodziewamy sie duzego zakresu zmian na EURUSD )
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EUR 13:45 czasu polskiego - PKB 3 kw
EUR 11:00 czasu polskiego – Sprzdaz detaliczna
EUR 13:45 czasu polskiego – Decyzja ECB w sprawie stop procentowych
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego - cotygodniowa liczba wnioskow o zasilek dla bezrobotnych ( dodatkowo wydajnosc pracy i jednostkowe koszty pracy )
EUR 14:30 czasu polskiego – Konferencja prasowa po decyzji ECB
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego – ISM w sektorze uslug
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego – wystapienie szefa FED Bena Bernanke
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5771, cel 5834, Stop Loss ponizej 5730.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5322, cel 5371, Stop Loss ponizej 5300.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1111, cel 1120, Stop Loss ponizej 1107.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza , nie spodziewamy sie wiekszych zmian przed decyzja ECB dzisiaj oraz jutrzejszymi NFP.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Sprzedaj teraz ( poziom 87.90 ) lub 88.20, celem jest 87.30, zlecenie stop loss powyzej 88.55.
EURJPY: Szanse na wzrosty w okolice 133, spodziewamy sie oporu na tym poziomie i ruchu w bok w przedziale 132-133.
GBPUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomu 1.6755.
AUDUSD: Pokonanie 0.9295/00, pozwoli na wzrosty w kierunku 0.9360, mozliwe 0.94.
EURPLN: opor 4.1210, 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4,00/01 – psychologiczne. Przelamanie wsparcia na poziomie 4.0920 otwiera możliwość testu poziomu 4.0740/4.0635 oraz psychologicznego poziomu 4.00. Scenariusz taki może zostac zanegowany zanegowany powyżej poziomu 4.17.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1213, cel 1223. Stop loss ponizej 1210.
SREBRO:
Strategia: sprzedaj po przelamaniu poziomu 19.09, cel 18.88. Stop loss powyzej 19.17.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup po pokonaniu 77.10, cel 79, Stop loss ponizej 76.10
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Uwazamy , ze dane dotyczace nowych wnioskow o zasilek beda lepsze od oczekiwan ( ze wzgledu na krotszy zeszly tydzien ), jednak sugerujemy realizacje z dlužich pozycji tuz przed publikacja ISM w sektorze uslug ( wg. Odczyt bedzie slabszy )
Pierwszy raz od dluzszego czasu EUR bedzie w centrum uwagi, ze wzgledu na odczyt PKB za 3 kw., Sprzedaz detaliczna oraz decyzje ECB w sprawie stop procentowych ( zwlaszcza podczas konferencji Tricheta spodziewamy sie duzego zakresu zmian na EURUSD )
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EUR 13:45 czasu polskiego - PKB 3 kw
EUR 11:00 czasu polskiego – Sprzdaz detaliczna
EUR 13:45 czasu polskiego – Decyzja ECB w sprawie stop procentowych
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego - cotygodniowa liczba wnioskow o zasilek dla bezrobotnych ( dodatkowo wydajnosc pracy i jednostkowe koszty pracy )
EUR 14:30 czasu polskiego – Konferencja prasowa po decyzji ECB
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego – ISM w sektorze uslug
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego – wystapienie szefa FED Bena Bernanke
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5771, cel 5834, Stop Loss ponizej 5730.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5322, cel 5371, Stop Loss ponizej 5300.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1111, cel 1120, Stop Loss ponizej 1107.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza , nie spodziewamy sie wiekszych zmian przed decyzja ECB dzisiaj oraz jutrzejszymi NFP.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Sprzedaj teraz ( poziom 87.90 ) lub 88.20, celem jest 87.30, zlecenie stop loss powyzej 88.55.
EURJPY: Szanse na wzrosty w okolice 133, spodziewamy sie oporu na tym poziomie i ruchu w bok w przedziale 132-133.
GBPUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomu 1.6755.
AUDUSD: Pokonanie 0.9295/00, pozwoli na wzrosty w kierunku 0.9360, mozliwe 0.94.
EURPLN: opor 4.1210, 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4,00/01 – psychologiczne. Przelamanie wsparcia na poziomie 4.0920 otwiera możliwość testu poziomu 4.0740/4.0635 oraz psychologicznego poziomu 4.00. Scenariusz taki może zostac zanegowany zanegowany powyżej poziomu 4.17.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1213, cel 1223. Stop loss ponizej 1210.
SREBRO:
Strategia: sprzedaj po przelamaniu poziomu 19.09, cel 18.88. Stop loss powyzej 19.17.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup po pokonaniu 77.10, cel 79, Stop loss ponizej 76.10
3/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.
In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.
On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.
We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.
Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.
The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.
And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.
Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.
In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.
On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.
We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.
Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.
The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.
And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.
środa, 2 grudnia 2009
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie.
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Wczorajsze publikacje ekonomiczne byly mieszane, ale restrukturyzacjacja dlugu Dubaju spowodowala spadek 200 punktowy w notowaniach CDS (Credit Default Swap) Dubaju. Innymi slowy, rynek nie widzi problemu.
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ i uwazamy, iz S&P500 moze przelamac opor na poziomie 1114 i ostatecznie przetestowac kluczowy opor na poziomie 1121 wynikajacy ze zniesien i rozszerzen Fibanacciego.
Uwaga na Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP i Bezowa Ksiege FED .
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 14:15 czasu polskiego Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP Oczekiwania: -150K Wczesniej: -203K
USA 20:00 czasu polskiego Bezowa Ksiega FED
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5752, cel 5802, Stop Loss ponizej 5727.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5283, cel 5324, Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1104, cel 1112, Stop Loss ponizej 1102.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza w opcjach o krotkim terminie wygasniecia i powinna sie wyrownac lecz jest malo prawdopodobne aby za gamme agresywnie placono w szczegolnosci w zwiazku z przygaszonymi przedzialami zmian cen na rynku fx spot.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc jest znacznie nizsza niz wczoraj, w zwiazku z kursem spot powoli pnacym sie do gory. Wiekszosc aktywnosci brokerow skupia sie na decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA 17 grudnia z kupcami zarowno poszukujacymi poziomow barier powyzej aktualnego kursu spot jak i ponizej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Tak dlugo jak kurs znajduje sie powyzej wsparcia na 86.55-60 istnieje ryzyko odbicia do 87.15 mozliwy wzrost do 87.55 zanim ruch wzrostowy zostanie zniesiony.
EURJPY: Ma potencjal wzrostowy lecz moze miec problem z pokonaniem 131.65. Sugerujemy rozgrywanie przedzialu 130.75-131.75.
GBPUSD: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1.6565 lub kup wybicie powyzej 1.6640, ktore moze spowodowac test 1.67. Stop loss ponizej 1.6515.
AUDUSD: Kupuj na spadkach lub wybicie ponad 0.9305 z celem na 0.9350.
EURPLN: opor 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0920 silne, 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne. Odbicie od piatkowego maks 4.1980 kieruje sie w rejon min pomiedzy 4.0920/4.0635. Ponizej moze owtorzyc droge w kierunku 4.000 (poziom psychologiczny). Powyzej 4.1710 moze otworzyc droge do 4.1980.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1208, cel 1220. Stop loss ponizej 1200.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kup przelamanie poziomu 19.37, cel 19.50. Stop loss ponizej 19.30.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup przelamanie poziomu 78.60, cel 80, Stop loss ponizej 78.
Wczorajsze publikacje ekonomiczne byly mieszane, ale restrukturyzacjacja dlugu Dubaju spowodowala spadek 200 punktowy w notowaniach CDS (Credit Default Swap) Dubaju. Innymi slowy, rynek nie widzi problemu.
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ i uwazamy, iz S&P500 moze przelamac opor na poziomie 1114 i ostatecznie przetestowac kluczowy opor na poziomie 1121 wynikajacy ze zniesien i rozszerzen Fibanacciego.
Uwaga na Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP i Bezowa Ksiege FED .
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 14:15 czasu polskiego Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP Oczekiwania: -150K Wczesniej: -203K
USA 20:00 czasu polskiego Bezowa Ksiega FED
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5752, cel 5802, Stop Loss ponizej 5727.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5283, cel 5324, Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1104, cel 1112, Stop Loss ponizej 1102.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza w opcjach o krotkim terminie wygasniecia i powinna sie wyrownac lecz jest malo prawdopodobne aby za gamme agresywnie placono w szczegolnosci w zwiazku z przygaszonymi przedzialami zmian cen na rynku fx spot.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc jest znacznie nizsza niz wczoraj, w zwiazku z kursem spot powoli pnacym sie do gory. Wiekszosc aktywnosci brokerow skupia sie na decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA 17 grudnia z kupcami zarowno poszukujacymi poziomow barier powyzej aktualnego kursu spot jak i ponizej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Tak dlugo jak kurs znajduje sie powyzej wsparcia na 86.55-60 istnieje ryzyko odbicia do 87.15 mozliwy wzrost do 87.55 zanim ruch wzrostowy zostanie zniesiony.
EURJPY: Ma potencjal wzrostowy lecz moze miec problem z pokonaniem 131.65. Sugerujemy rozgrywanie przedzialu 130.75-131.75.
GBPUSD: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1.6565 lub kup wybicie powyzej 1.6640, ktore moze spowodowac test 1.67. Stop loss ponizej 1.6515.
AUDUSD: Kupuj na spadkach lub wybicie ponad 0.9305 z celem na 0.9350.
EURPLN: opor 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0920 silne, 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne. Odbicie od piatkowego maks 4.1980 kieruje sie w rejon min pomiedzy 4.0920/4.0635. Ponizej moze owtorzyc droge w kierunku 4.000 (poziom psychologiczny). Powyzej 4.1710 moze otworzyc droge do 4.1980.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1208, cel 1220. Stop loss ponizej 1200.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kup przelamanie poziomu 19.37, cel 19.50. Stop loss ponizej 19.30.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup przelamanie poziomu 78.60, cel 80, Stop loss ponizej 78.
2/12 Daily Comment
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
poniedziałek, 30 listopada 2009
30/11 Weekly Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Trader, Saxo Bank
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.pl
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.pl
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