Przygotowal Piotr Wilczynski
Tytul: Obserwuj wnioski o zasilek dla bezrobotnych z USA
Lead: Duzo lepsze od oczekiwan dane dotyczace bezrobocia z Australii.
Jastrzebi ton ze strony RBNZ, dolar nowozelandzki zyskal prawie 2 figury w stosunku do lokalnego rywala.
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.5%, SP500 +0.37%, NASD +0.49% ), japonski NIKKEI 225 -1,42%
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrocic uwage na cotygodniowe dane z USA dotyczace wnioskow o zasilek dla bezrobotnych.
Wielka Brytania godz. 13.00 polskiego czasu – BOE decyzja w spraše
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Wnioski o zasilki dla bezrobotnych
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - Wystapienie Geithnera
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krotka strone w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670.
USDJPY: Preferujemy dlugie pozycje, ale interesuje nas dobra cena ( byc moze sa to okolice poziomu 87 ).
EURJPY: Preferujemy krotka strone rynku.
GBPUSD: Krotkie pozycje w okolicach 1.63, ewentualny cel to poziomy zblikne do 1.6000, 55-dniowa srednia kroczaca – 1.6375 ( ryzyko dla niedzwiedzi to przejecia i akwizycje )
EURPLN: opor 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przelamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia sie na wydluzenie trendu niedzwiedzia. Jesli obecne ozywienie zatrzyma sie ponizej 4.1975, wowczas niedziwiedzie sa nadal faworyzowane ( nizszy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opor 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje sie nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym moze być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamkniecia )
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5714, cel 5668. Stop loss powyzej 5736.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5246, cel 5217. Stop loss powyzej 5259.
S&P500: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1101, cel 1095. Stop loss powyzej 1105.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1135, cel 1125. Stop loss powyzej 1141.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 17.30, cel 17.12. Stop loss powyzej 17.41.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 70.13, cel 69.25. Stop loss ponizej 70.50.
czwartek, 10 grudnia 2009
10/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.
More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.
This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp). Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.
With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.
On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….
Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.
No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.
Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.
Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.
More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.
This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp). Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.
With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.
On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….
Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.
No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.
Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.
środa, 9 grudnia 2009
9/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Fairly quiet night again overnight, however worth noting is the underperformance in Asian equity markets and the slightly offered tone on US equity indices also. Not surprising in the scheme of things really as more bad news hit the wires over the last 18 hours all of which relating in most part to the down grading of sovereign credit ratings, notably Greece. Equally important in this recent bout of “risk off” were renewed fears on the health of Dubai and its mounting debt problems.
Subsequently we have seen the DXY push to fresh highs as the EUR and Cable were sold off heavily. The only real positive movers were the AUD and NZD dollars. Price action here is a little confusing given the second month in a row of worse than expected consumer sentiment in Australia, I do think though that all of this does need to be taken with a pinch of salt and as far as these currencies are concerned tonight marks crunch time for them as the RBNZ speaks and the Australians have their unemployment data out.
Elsewhere the USDJPY has given back all the gains it made post NFP last week and now continues to look heavy reaching in the interim for the 87.30 support and further out even lower into 86.50. Cable though has been the standout with the downside cleanout being helped along by renewed sovereign debt/rating fears as well as a multitude of stops from a retail market that has been stubbornly long the cross until now. I still think this thing pitches lower and while it may find some very short term support this will only serve as a small short term tech correction before we continue lower.
I target 1.5700 by the end of January. Today we have Darling speaking and giving the preliminary budget report with talk that he’ll be far more verbose today than usual and this could give more impetus for a sell on rallies in the Cable.
The EURUSD is bouncing at the time of print but similarly to the Cable I use this as an opportunity to sell the cross looking for a decisive move towards 1.4620 initial medium term support.
On the USDCAD the price action seems to be erratic at best but I hold off doing anything of real value until we exhaust this move higher into 1.0700/30 and then look to sell all the way back down to 1.0430/50.
All quiet on the western front otherwise at the moment and if nothing else liquidity issues as starting to play a role in the lead up to the year end.
Fairly quiet night again overnight, however worth noting is the underperformance in Asian equity markets and the slightly offered tone on US equity indices also. Not surprising in the scheme of things really as more bad news hit the wires over the last 18 hours all of which relating in most part to the down grading of sovereign credit ratings, notably Greece. Equally important in this recent bout of “risk off” were renewed fears on the health of Dubai and its mounting debt problems.
Subsequently we have seen the DXY push to fresh highs as the EUR and Cable were sold off heavily. The only real positive movers were the AUD and NZD dollars. Price action here is a little confusing given the second month in a row of worse than expected consumer sentiment in Australia, I do think though that all of this does need to be taken with a pinch of salt and as far as these currencies are concerned tonight marks crunch time for them as the RBNZ speaks and the Australians have their unemployment data out.
Elsewhere the USDJPY has given back all the gains it made post NFP last week and now continues to look heavy reaching in the interim for the 87.30 support and further out even lower into 86.50. Cable though has been the standout with the downside cleanout being helped along by renewed sovereign debt/rating fears as well as a multitude of stops from a retail market that has been stubbornly long the cross until now. I still think this thing pitches lower and while it may find some very short term support this will only serve as a small short term tech correction before we continue lower.
I target 1.5700 by the end of January. Today we have Darling speaking and giving the preliminary budget report with talk that he’ll be far more verbose today than usual and this could give more impetus for a sell on rallies in the Cable.
The EURUSD is bouncing at the time of print but similarly to the Cable I use this as an opportunity to sell the cross looking for a decisive move towards 1.4620 initial medium term support.
On the USDCAD the price action seems to be erratic at best but I hold off doing anything of real value until we exhaust this move higher into 1.0700/30 and then look to sell all the way back down to 1.0430/50.
All quiet on the western front otherwise at the moment and if nothing else liquidity issues as starting to play a role in the lead up to the year end.
wtorek, 8 grudnia 2009
Komentarze Bernanke na temat amerykanskiej gospodarki sprawily, ze USD sie oslabil.
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Wysokosc kredytow konsumpcyjnych w USA nadal spada, lecz mniej niz oczekiwano, co powinno byc pozytywne dla USD, lecz wczorajsze komentarze Bernanke byly zdecydowanie negatywne („ekonomia stawia czola przeciwnym wiatrom“, „inflacja pozostaje przygaszona“), wiec USD sie oslabil. Ponownie flirtuje z 55-dzienna srednia EURUSD. Nadal jest nadzieja dla inwestorow nastawionych na wzrost USD, lecz tylko ponizej poziomu 1.4970 EURUSD.
Rynek akcji zostal dotkniety przez komentarze Bernanke i „stara korelacja“ (ujemna pomiedzy USD i rynkiem akcji) zostala przywrocona.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Wielka Brytania 10:30 Produkcja Przemyslowa Miesiac-do-Miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) Konsensus: 0,5% Wczesniej: 1,6%.
Strefa EURO 12:00 Produkcja Przemyslowa Miesiac-do-miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) Konsensus: 1% Wczesniej: 2,7%
Kanada 15:00 czasu polskiego Stopy procentowe w Kanadzie PRZEWIDYWANIA SAXO BANK: 0,25% Konsensus: 0,25% Wczesniej 0,25%
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 1,4820, cel 1,4760. Stop loss powyzej 1,4850.
USDJPY: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 88.51 z celem na 89.60. Stop loss ponizej 87.80.
EURJPY: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 131.60 z celem na 130.75. Stop loss powyzej 132.00.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 1.64 z celem na 1.6270. Stop loss powyzej 1.6450.
USDCAD: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1.05 z celem na 1.06. Stop loss ponizej 1.0450.
EURPLN: opor 4.1020, 4.1075, 4.1210. Wsparcie 4.0630, 4.0410, 4.0330. Zdecydowane przelamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia sie na wydluzenie trendu niedzwiedzia. Jakiekolwiek ozywienia korekcyjne moga byc ograniczone do 4.1710.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Nadal utrzymuje sie nad 2.6960. Ponizej sygnalizuje wydluzenie do 2.6090 przez 2.6760. Powyzej 2.8300 trend niedzwiedzia zostanie zaniechany.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc opcji o krotkim czasie wygasniecia spada, gdyz kurs fx spot kontynuuje utrzymywanie sie w przedzialach. Dlugoterminowe strategie Risk Reversals uzyskuja lepsze ceny gdyz rynek spotowy nie zniwelowal poziomow widzianych w poprzednim tygodniu.
USDJPY: Opcje w calym zakresie okresow wygasniecia sa kupowane, w zwiazku z rynkiem spotowym znajdujacym sie ponizej 8900. Wsrod 2-3 miesiecznych opcji z wyzszymi poziomami barier obserwuje sie polowanie na okazje cenowe. Jesli spot przebije sie przez poziom 8800, zmiennosc bedzie miala wiecej przestrzeni do wzrostow.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc ogolnie spadla w trakcie sesji azjatyckiej tego ranka. Odnotowujemy zainteresowanie kupnem opcji z niskimi deltami i wysokimi poziomami barier w obszarze Styczen-Luty i takze obejmujacych decyzje o stopach procentowych w USA w nastepnym tygodniu.
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 5780, cel 5730. Stop loss powyzej 5800.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 5310, cel 5260. Stop loss powyzej 5333.
S&P500: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 1098, cel 1089. Stop loss powyzej 1104.
NASDAQ100: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 1778, cel 1765. Stop loss powyzej 1785.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO: Kupuj na przelamaniu 1171, cel 1191. Stop loss ponizej 1165.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 17.85, cel 17.50. Stop Loss powyzej 18.00.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj po przelamaniu 74.50, cel 76. Stop loss ponizej 73.80.
Wysokosc kredytow konsumpcyjnych w USA nadal spada, lecz mniej niz oczekiwano, co powinno byc pozytywne dla USD, lecz wczorajsze komentarze Bernanke byly zdecydowanie negatywne („ekonomia stawia czola przeciwnym wiatrom“, „inflacja pozostaje przygaszona“), wiec USD sie oslabil. Ponownie flirtuje z 55-dzienna srednia EURUSD. Nadal jest nadzieja dla inwestorow nastawionych na wzrost USD, lecz tylko ponizej poziomu 1.4970 EURUSD.
Rynek akcji zostal dotkniety przez komentarze Bernanke i „stara korelacja“ (ujemna pomiedzy USD i rynkiem akcji) zostala przywrocona.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Wielka Brytania 10:30 Produkcja Przemyslowa Miesiac-do-Miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) Konsensus: 0,5% Wczesniej: 1,6%.
Strefa EURO 12:00 Produkcja Przemyslowa Miesiac-do-miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) Konsensus: 1% Wczesniej: 2,7%
Kanada 15:00 czasu polskiego Stopy procentowe w Kanadzie PRZEWIDYWANIA SAXO BANK: 0,25% Konsensus: 0,25% Wczesniej 0,25%
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 1,4820, cel 1,4760. Stop loss powyzej 1,4850.
USDJPY: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 88.51 z celem na 89.60. Stop loss ponizej 87.80.
EURJPY: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 131.60 z celem na 130.75. Stop loss powyzej 132.00.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 1.64 z celem na 1.6270. Stop loss powyzej 1.6450.
USDCAD: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1.05 z celem na 1.06. Stop loss ponizej 1.0450.
EURPLN: opor 4.1020, 4.1075, 4.1210. Wsparcie 4.0630, 4.0410, 4.0330. Zdecydowane przelamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia sie na wydluzenie trendu niedzwiedzia. Jakiekolwiek ozywienia korekcyjne moga byc ograniczone do 4.1710.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Nadal utrzymuje sie nad 2.6960. Ponizej sygnalizuje wydluzenie do 2.6090 przez 2.6760. Powyzej 2.8300 trend niedzwiedzia zostanie zaniechany.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc opcji o krotkim czasie wygasniecia spada, gdyz kurs fx spot kontynuuje utrzymywanie sie w przedzialach. Dlugoterminowe strategie Risk Reversals uzyskuja lepsze ceny gdyz rynek spotowy nie zniwelowal poziomow widzianych w poprzednim tygodniu.
USDJPY: Opcje w calym zakresie okresow wygasniecia sa kupowane, w zwiazku z rynkiem spotowym znajdujacym sie ponizej 8900. Wsrod 2-3 miesiecznych opcji z wyzszymi poziomami barier obserwuje sie polowanie na okazje cenowe. Jesli spot przebije sie przez poziom 8800, zmiennosc bedzie miala wiecej przestrzeni do wzrostow.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc ogolnie spadla w trakcie sesji azjatyckiej tego ranka. Odnotowujemy zainteresowanie kupnem opcji z niskimi deltami i wysokimi poziomami barier w obszarze Styczen-Luty i takze obejmujacych decyzje o stopach procentowych w USA w nastepnym tygodniu.
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 5780, cel 5730. Stop loss powyzej 5800.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 5310, cel 5260. Stop loss powyzej 5333.
S&P500: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 1098, cel 1089. Stop loss powyzej 1104.
NASDAQ100: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 1778, cel 1765. Stop loss powyzej 1785.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO: Kupuj na przelamaniu 1171, cel 1191. Stop loss ponizej 1165.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 17.85, cel 17.50. Stop Loss powyzej 18.00.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj po przelamaniu 74.50, cel 76. Stop loss ponizej 73.80.
Daily comment
Slightly whippy night last night in large part thanks to comments from Bernanke. Although of interest is the fact that he didn’t actually say anything new, instead simply reiterating his low rates for an extended period comments that he’s been singing for the last 6 months or so. However in a market that is still doing its best to recover from the events on Friday it was enough to give the greenback an offered tone and squeeze out a market which is at best undecided on further direction. We saw the USD sold off across the board for about 20 minutes and the EURUSD squeezed about 80pips as a result. All in all the price action was short-lived and quickly settled back into the rhythm that we saw all day yesterday.
We had data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight that beat street expectations, but only by a small margin, which means that my short AUDNZD remains in no man’s land, but fingers crossed is on the verge of breaking lower.
On the day the only real data of note is the UK Industrial production data and the BOC decision. Neither of which is likely to prove to be market moving or earth shattering. Worth looking at though is the 1.6325 level in Cable which is broken opens the door to 1.6270/80 and lower, however this level has been well protected already this morning so…..
Kenneth Veksler
We had data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight that beat street expectations, but only by a small margin, which means that my short AUDNZD remains in no man’s land, but fingers crossed is on the verge of breaking lower.
On the day the only real data of note is the UK Industrial production data and the BOC decision. Neither of which is likely to prove to be market moving or earth shattering. Worth looking at though is the 1.6325 level in Cable which is broken opens the door to 1.6270/80 and lower, however this level has been well protected already this morning so…..
Kenneth Veksler
poniedziałek, 7 grudnia 2009
Weekly Outlook
The world looks like a decisively different place this morning and I can assure you none of it has to do with the monster hangover I dealt with all day yesterday after the bank’s Christmas party on Saturday night. What I am referring to is the market’s reaction to the NFP data out of the US on Friday afternoon. Now I have never been one for conspiracy theories but something in my view is certainly rotten in the state of Denmark. I refer specifically to 3 independent factors that together make me think that there is more to this number than at first meets the eye, in chronological order they are:
1. A White House comment/statement made on the eve of the report purporting that the data will be staggeringly better than previous releases (bare in mind that no such statement had ever been made)
2. The data is released 30 seconds too early, taking the market a little by surprise.
3. And finally of course the number itself! How does that happen? How does such a major reversal of fortune occur, seemingly overnight?
Anyway you paint this thing there is clearly something wrong and of course the ensuing price action confirmed just this. Now I know I’ve spoken about the correlation matrix previously and the fact that risk and USD have been inversely correlated for nearly 18 months now, but we saw a massive decoupling of this relationship on Friday and to a smaller degree a continuation this morning. While I welcome this movement I am not entirely ready to ring in the changes as being permanent. If you look at the IMM positioning as of the close of last week you may just get a feel for why the market has moved the way it has, in fact simply cleaning out record short USD positions.
So the obvious question is where to from here, honestly I don’t really know. Year end is fast approaching and moves are going to become even more erratic as the obvious liquidity and holiday issues begin to play a bigger part. My conservative advice is to start saving your pennies for next year and limit yourself to fundamental moves should you be able to find them. For the record I favor the following for the week ahead:
AUDNZD: Still short, still waiting.
GBPUSD: Still short, counting my profit.
USDCAD: Waiting to sell on rallies into 1.07/0800
USDJPY: Seller into 90.30/80 with stops above 91.30.
On the data front it is central bank focus all the way with the likes of Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland and England all announcing official cash rates this week. Of these most interest and potential market movement will come on the back of the SNB and quite possibly Canada so as per the above comments look to sell the rally in the USDCAD.
1. A White House comment/statement made on the eve of the report purporting that the data will be staggeringly better than previous releases (bare in mind that no such statement had ever been made)
2. The data is released 30 seconds too early, taking the market a little by surprise.
3. And finally of course the number itself! How does that happen? How does such a major reversal of fortune occur, seemingly overnight?
Anyway you paint this thing there is clearly something wrong and of course the ensuing price action confirmed just this. Now I know I’ve spoken about the correlation matrix previously and the fact that risk and USD have been inversely correlated for nearly 18 months now, but we saw a massive decoupling of this relationship on Friday and to a smaller degree a continuation this morning. While I welcome this movement I am not entirely ready to ring in the changes as being permanent. If you look at the IMM positioning as of the close of last week you may just get a feel for why the market has moved the way it has, in fact simply cleaning out record short USD positions.
So the obvious question is where to from here, honestly I don’t really know. Year end is fast approaching and moves are going to become even more erratic as the obvious liquidity and holiday issues begin to play a bigger part. My conservative advice is to start saving your pennies for next year and limit yourself to fundamental moves should you be able to find them. For the record I favor the following for the week ahead:
AUDNZD: Still short, still waiting.
GBPUSD: Still short, counting my profit.
USDCAD: Waiting to sell on rallies into 1.07/0800
USDJPY: Seller into 90.30/80 with stops above 91.30.
On the data front it is central bank focus all the way with the likes of Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland and England all announcing official cash rates this week. Of these most interest and potential market movement will come on the back of the SNB and quite possibly Canada so as per the above comments look to sell the rally in the USDCAD.
Apetyt na ryzyko powraca po lepszych niz oczekiwano danych z amerykanskiego rynku pracy
Przygotowal Pawel Kalinowski
Piatkowe dane z amerykanskiego rynku pracy byly znacznie lepsze niz oczekiwano. Dane byly tak mocne, iz ujemna korelacja miedzy USD a akcjami zalamala sie (przeksztalcila sie w dodatnia). Zauwazylismy wydluzenie sie sredniego tygodnia pracy: 33.2 godziny wobec 33 godzin, ktorych oczekiwano. Wydluzanie sie tygodnia pracy jest tym co zazwyczaj sie widzi w trakcie ozywienia gospodarczego, gdyz pracodawcy prosza swoich pracownikow o prace w nadgodzinach zanim podejma decyzje o zatrudnieniu.
To moze byc bardzo istotne. Z indeksem JPY (TWI JPY) pod silna presja i zarowno rzadowymi jak i korporacyjnymi kursami CDS (Credit Default Swaps) znizkujacymi, wyglada na to ze bedziemy miec do czynienia ze srodowiskiem, ktore jest w stanie ogarnac ryzyko i w ktorym USD sie umacnia.
Trend spadkowy USDJPY moze miec sie ku koncowi, lecz potrzebujemy kilku dni by wyciagnac ostateczne wnioski. EURUSD oraz w szczegolnosci zloto sa pod presja.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Strefa EURO 10:30 Index Zaudania Inwestora Sentix (GRUDZIEN) Wczesniej: -7,0.
Strefa EURO 12:00 Zamowienia w przemysle Miesiac-do-miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) Konsensus: 0,8% Wczesniej: 0,9%
Kanada 14:30 czasu polskiego Pozwolenia na budowe Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Konsensus: 1,0% Wczesniej: 1,6%
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 1.4950 z celem ponizej 1.4825. Stop loss powyzej 1.50.
USDJPY: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 89.25 z celem na 90.25. Stop loss ponizej 88.60.
EURJPY: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 132 z celem na 134. Stop loss ponizej 131.00.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 1.6423 z celem na 1.63. Stop loss powyzej 1.6470
USDCAD: Kupuj po przelamaniu 1.06 z celem na 1.0750. Stop loss ponizej 1.0520.
EURPLN: opor 4.0742 silny, 4.1020, 4.1075. Wsparcie 4.0330, 4.0000, 3.9715. Kluczowy poziom wsparcia 4.0740/4.0635 zostal przelamany otwierajac droge do psychologicznego wsparcia na 4.0000 przed 3.8835. Powyzej 4.1710 ten scenariusz zostanie znegowany.
USDPLN: opor 2.7390, 2.7835, 2.8350 silny. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Nadal widoczny jest nacisk na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnalizowane moze byc wydluzenie do 2.6090 przez 2.6760. Powyzej 2.7390 moze nastapic ruch w kierunku 2.7835/2.8300.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc powinna znalezc wsparcie w opcjach o krotkim terminie zapadalnosci w szczegolnosci z rynkiem nastawionym wzrostowo po piatkowych danych lecz raczej nie potrwa to zbyt dlugo po decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA w nastepnym tygodniu.
EURJPY: Gamma ma dobre wsparcie przed decyzja w sprawie stop procentowych w USA w nastepnym tygodniu a na opcje o srednim terminie zapadalnosci nadal widzimy spory popyt tego ranka wiec nie spodziewamy sie, iz zmiennosc znaczaco spadnie.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc spadla z poziomow notowanych po piatkowych publikacjach. Odnotowalismy zainteresowanie kupnem opcji z poziomem barier w przedziale 93-9400 i 1-2 miesiecznymi okresami wygasniecia w czasie dzisiejszej sesji azjatyckiej.
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na osabieniach w kierunku 5767, cel 5815. Stop loss ponizej 5745.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5263, cel 5310. Stop loss ponizej 5240.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1100, cel 1114. Stop loss ponizej 1094.
Surowce:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 1175, cel 1150. Stop loss powyzej 1186.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 18.10, cel 17.75. Stop loss powyzej 18.25.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 76.30, cel 74.90. Stop powyzej 77.50.
Piatkowe dane z amerykanskiego rynku pracy byly znacznie lepsze niz oczekiwano. Dane byly tak mocne, iz ujemna korelacja miedzy USD a akcjami zalamala sie (przeksztalcila sie w dodatnia). Zauwazylismy wydluzenie sie sredniego tygodnia pracy: 33.2 godziny wobec 33 godzin, ktorych oczekiwano. Wydluzanie sie tygodnia pracy jest tym co zazwyczaj sie widzi w trakcie ozywienia gospodarczego, gdyz pracodawcy prosza swoich pracownikow o prace w nadgodzinach zanim podejma decyzje o zatrudnieniu.
To moze byc bardzo istotne. Z indeksem JPY (TWI JPY) pod silna presja i zarowno rzadowymi jak i korporacyjnymi kursami CDS (Credit Default Swaps) znizkujacymi, wyglada na to ze bedziemy miec do czynienia ze srodowiskiem, ktore jest w stanie ogarnac ryzyko i w ktorym USD sie umacnia.
Trend spadkowy USDJPY moze miec sie ku koncowi, lecz potrzebujemy kilku dni by wyciagnac ostateczne wnioski. EURUSD oraz w szczegolnosci zloto sa pod presja.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Strefa EURO 10:30 Index Zaudania Inwestora Sentix (GRUDZIEN) Wczesniej: -7,0.
Strefa EURO 12:00 Zamowienia w przemysle Miesiac-do-miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) Konsensus: 0,8% Wczesniej: 0,9%
Kanada 14:30 czasu polskiego Pozwolenia na budowe Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Konsensus: 1,0% Wczesniej: 1,6%
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 1.4950 z celem ponizej 1.4825. Stop loss powyzej 1.50.
USDJPY: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 89.25 z celem na 90.25. Stop loss ponizej 88.60.
EURJPY: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 132 z celem na 134. Stop loss ponizej 131.00.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 1.6423 z celem na 1.63. Stop loss powyzej 1.6470
USDCAD: Kupuj po przelamaniu 1.06 z celem na 1.0750. Stop loss ponizej 1.0520.
EURPLN: opor 4.0742 silny, 4.1020, 4.1075. Wsparcie 4.0330, 4.0000, 3.9715. Kluczowy poziom wsparcia 4.0740/4.0635 zostal przelamany otwierajac droge do psychologicznego wsparcia na 4.0000 przed 3.8835. Powyzej 4.1710 ten scenariusz zostanie znegowany.
USDPLN: opor 2.7390, 2.7835, 2.8350 silny. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Nadal widoczny jest nacisk na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnalizowane moze byc wydluzenie do 2.6090 przez 2.6760. Powyzej 2.7390 moze nastapic ruch w kierunku 2.7835/2.8300.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc powinna znalezc wsparcie w opcjach o krotkim terminie zapadalnosci w szczegolnosci z rynkiem nastawionym wzrostowo po piatkowych danych lecz raczej nie potrwa to zbyt dlugo po decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA w nastepnym tygodniu.
EURJPY: Gamma ma dobre wsparcie przed decyzja w sprawie stop procentowych w USA w nastepnym tygodniu a na opcje o srednim terminie zapadalnosci nadal widzimy spory popyt tego ranka wiec nie spodziewamy sie, iz zmiennosc znaczaco spadnie.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc spadla z poziomow notowanych po piatkowych publikacjach. Odnotowalismy zainteresowanie kupnem opcji z poziomem barier w przedziale 93-9400 i 1-2 miesiecznymi okresami wygasniecia w czasie dzisiejszej sesji azjatyckiej.
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na osabieniach w kierunku 5767, cel 5815. Stop loss ponizej 5745.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5263, cel 5310. Stop loss ponizej 5240.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1100, cel 1114. Stop loss ponizej 1094.
Surowce:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 1175, cel 1150. Stop loss powyzej 1186.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj po przelamaniu 18.10, cel 17.75. Stop loss powyzej 18.25.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedawaj na ozywieniach w kierunku 76.30, cel 74.90. Stop powyzej 77.50.
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