Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.
All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.
Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.
A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:
USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.
USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.
EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.
AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.
GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.
Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.
Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.
The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.
European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3
UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6
piątek, 27 listopada 2009
czwartek, 26 listopada 2009
26/11 Daily commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving ventral banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
www.saxobank.pl
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving ventral banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
www.saxobank.pl
poniedziałek, 23 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Cena zlota ustanawia nowe rekordy a rynki azjatyckie wzrosly. AUD i NZD wyzej przez weekend. S&P 500 takze wzrasta. 10-letnia prognozowana stopa inflacji znajduje sie w okolicach 2.2% (pozytywny sygnal dla wzrostow na gieldach).
Rynki nadal sa otwarte na ryzyko i nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ w kierunku wsparcia na S&P500 na poziomie 1084.
Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtornym moze spowodowac wzrosty na rynkach akcji. Oczekujemy pozytywnej niespodzianki.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtórnym Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 2,3% Wczesniej: 9.4% SAXO BANK OCZEKUJE: 3.6%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5599, cel 5657. Stop Loss ponizej 5566.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku poziomu 5214, cel 5256. Stop Loss ponizej 5194.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1086, cel 1096, Stop Loss ponizej 1083.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosci wzrosly w piatek wskutek poglosek o duzej opcji typu DOUBLE NO TOUCH z bariera na poziomie 1.48
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz aktualne wzrosty wyhamuja w okolicach poziomu 1.4960 by przetestowac 1.4840. Stop ponownie powyzej 1,5015.
EURPLN: opor 4.1633 silny, 4.1850, 4.2127 silny. Wsparcie 4.0990, 4.0800, 4.0742 silne. Korekta w zeszlym tygodniu zaczela sie wypalac. Opor ok 4.1825 moze byc gornym limitem przed spadkiem przez 4.0635.
USDPLN: opor 2.7978, 2.8100 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7285, 2.7110, 2.7080 silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Potencjalny poziom maks na 2.8100 przed możliwym spadkiem w kierunku 2.6090.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1150 (luka), cel 1161, Stop ponizej 1147.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 18.50, cel: 18.,7 Stop Loss ponizej 18.40.
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupuj po przelamaniu 78.65, cel 80. Stop Loss ponizej 78.10.
Cena zlota ustanawia nowe rekordy a rynki azjatyckie wzrosly. AUD i NZD wyzej przez weekend. S&P 500 takze wzrasta. 10-letnia prognozowana stopa inflacji znajduje sie w okolicach 2.2% (pozytywny sygnal dla wzrostow na gieldach).
Rynki nadal sa otwarte na ryzyko i nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ w kierunku wsparcia na S&P500 na poziomie 1084.
Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtornym moze spowodowac wzrosty na rynkach akcji. Oczekujemy pozytywnej niespodzianki.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtórnym Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 2,3% Wczesniej: 9.4% SAXO BANK OCZEKUJE: 3.6%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5599, cel 5657. Stop Loss ponizej 5566.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku poziomu 5214, cel 5256. Stop Loss ponizej 5194.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1086, cel 1096, Stop Loss ponizej 1083.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosci wzrosly w piatek wskutek poglosek o duzej opcji typu DOUBLE NO TOUCH z bariera na poziomie 1.48
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz aktualne wzrosty wyhamuja w okolicach poziomu 1.4960 by przetestowac 1.4840. Stop ponownie powyzej 1,5015.
EURPLN: opor 4.1633 silny, 4.1850, 4.2127 silny. Wsparcie 4.0990, 4.0800, 4.0742 silne. Korekta w zeszlym tygodniu zaczela sie wypalac. Opor ok 4.1825 moze byc gornym limitem przed spadkiem przez 4.0635.
USDPLN: opor 2.7978, 2.8100 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7285, 2.7110, 2.7080 silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Potencjalny poziom maks na 2.8100 przed możliwym spadkiem w kierunku 2.6090.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1150 (luka), cel 1161, Stop ponizej 1147.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 18.50, cel: 18.,7 Stop Loss ponizej 18.40.
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupuj po przelamaniu 78.65, cel 80. Stop Loss ponizej 78.10.
środa, 18 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii powinno byc interesujace. Bank Anglii zaskoczyl rynek pare tygodoni temu podnoszac cel poluzowania ilosciowego o 25 miliardow funtow a nie 50 miliardow jak oczekiwano. W dniu dzisiejszym ma byc opublikowany amerykanski Wskaznik Cen i Produktow (CPI) i publikacja ta moze rozczarowac rynek. Oczekujemy, iz zarowno CPI jak i wskaznik inflacji bazowej (Core CPI) pozostana bez zmian, minimalnie ponizej consensusu i oczekiwan rynku. Produkcja Przemyslowa i Wykorzystanie Mocy Produkcyjnych wczoraj delikatnie rozczarowaly. Czy wrzesniowy raport to tylko pozostalosci po programie dofinansowanych przez rzad amerykanski wymiany starych samochodow ? Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych jest dzisiaj bardzo istotna publikacja. Dotyczas wskaznik ten ustabilizowal sie na poziomie ponizej 600 tys., lecz potrzebna jest ciagla poprawa, aby poprawa gospodarcza mogla sie utrzymac.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Wielka Brytania 10:30 czasu polskiego Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego CPI (Rok-do-Roku) Oczekiwania: -0.3% Wczesniej: -1.3%
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych Oczekiwania: 600 tys. Wczesniej: 590 tys.
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5791, cel 5812, Stop Loss ponizej 5780.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5354, cel 5375. Stop Loss ponizej 5345.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1111, cel 1117. Stop Loss ponizej 1109.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy kupowali krotkoterminowe opcje kupna EUR lecz ogolnie rzecz biorac bylo dosc spokojnie. Kurs SPOT nie mogl przelamac uksztaltowanych ostatnio przedzialow zmiennosci, oczekujemy, iz Gamma bedzie operowala na niskich poziomach.
USDJPY: Opcje o krotkim terminie wygasniecia beda sie sprzedawac przy kursie SPOT, ktory zmienil sie o ledwie 20 punktow w czasie sesji azjatyckiej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie oporu na 1.4900-10, oczekujac ponownego testu poziomu 1.4825, stop loss powyzej 1.4950
EURPLN: opor 4.1111, 4.1355, 4.1562. Wsparcie 4.0742 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Ograniczony spadek niewiele powyzej kluczowego poziomu 4.0635. Możliwa korekta w kierunku 4.1825 przed odbiciem w kierunku 4.0635, na przedluzenie trednu niedzwiedzia do 4.0000.
USDPLN: opor 2.7721, 2.7885 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7110, 2.7080 silne, 2.6760 silne. Przelamanie 3m bazy konsolidacji na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Oczekiwane spadek w kierunku 2.6090, mozliwie nizej, podczas gdy 2.8440 jest limitem gornym.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ): Moze miec problem z przelamaniem poziomu 1145. Ryzyko glebszej korekty w najblizszym czasie do 1132, mozliwy takze spadek do 1127.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9): Preferujemy sprzedaz na wzrostach do 18.40 lub przelamanie ponizej 18.30 z celem na 18.20
ROPA :
(CLZ9) : Moze osiagnac szczyt w najblizszym czasie na poziomie 80 USD. Mozliwe spadki do 78.50.
Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii powinno byc interesujace. Bank Anglii zaskoczyl rynek pare tygodoni temu podnoszac cel poluzowania ilosciowego o 25 miliardow funtow a nie 50 miliardow jak oczekiwano. W dniu dzisiejszym ma byc opublikowany amerykanski Wskaznik Cen i Produktow (CPI) i publikacja ta moze rozczarowac rynek. Oczekujemy, iz zarowno CPI jak i wskaznik inflacji bazowej (Core CPI) pozostana bez zmian, minimalnie ponizej consensusu i oczekiwan rynku. Produkcja Przemyslowa i Wykorzystanie Mocy Produkcyjnych wczoraj delikatnie rozczarowaly. Czy wrzesniowy raport to tylko pozostalosci po programie dofinansowanych przez rzad amerykanski wymiany starych samochodow ? Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych jest dzisiaj bardzo istotna publikacja. Dotyczas wskaznik ten ustabilizowal sie na poziomie ponizej 600 tys., lecz potrzebna jest ciagla poprawa, aby poprawa gospodarcza mogla sie utrzymac.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Wielka Brytania 10:30 czasu polskiego Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego CPI (Rok-do-Roku) Oczekiwania: -0.3% Wczesniej: -1.3%
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych Oczekiwania: 600 tys. Wczesniej: 590 tys.
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5791, cel 5812, Stop Loss ponizej 5780.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5354, cel 5375. Stop Loss ponizej 5345.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1111, cel 1117. Stop Loss ponizej 1109.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy kupowali krotkoterminowe opcje kupna EUR lecz ogolnie rzecz biorac bylo dosc spokojnie. Kurs SPOT nie mogl przelamac uksztaltowanych ostatnio przedzialow zmiennosci, oczekujemy, iz Gamma bedzie operowala na niskich poziomach.
USDJPY: Opcje o krotkim terminie wygasniecia beda sie sprzedawac przy kursie SPOT, ktory zmienil sie o ledwie 20 punktow w czasie sesji azjatyckiej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie oporu na 1.4900-10, oczekujac ponownego testu poziomu 1.4825, stop loss powyzej 1.4950
EURPLN: opor 4.1111, 4.1355, 4.1562. Wsparcie 4.0742 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Ograniczony spadek niewiele powyzej kluczowego poziomu 4.0635. Możliwa korekta w kierunku 4.1825 przed odbiciem w kierunku 4.0635, na przedluzenie trednu niedzwiedzia do 4.0000.
USDPLN: opor 2.7721, 2.7885 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7110, 2.7080 silne, 2.6760 silne. Przelamanie 3m bazy konsolidacji na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Oczekiwane spadek w kierunku 2.6090, mozliwie nizej, podczas gdy 2.8440 jest limitem gornym.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ): Moze miec problem z przelamaniem poziomu 1145. Ryzyko glebszej korekty w najblizszym czasie do 1132, mozliwy takze spadek do 1127.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9): Preferujemy sprzedaz na wzrostach do 18.40 lub przelamanie ponizej 18.30 z celem na 18.20
ROPA :
(CLZ9) : Moze osiagnac szczyt w najblizszym czasie na poziomie 80 USD. Mozliwe spadki do 78.50.
wtorek, 17 listopada 2009
17/11 Daily Market Commentary
Prepared by: Ken Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Markets are clearly risk appetite giddy and looking for more upside. In an atmosphere where the S&P makes new record highs for the year, gold continues steaming to new all time highs and the DXY is heading for new lows one can imagine how nervous the market is when listening to the likes of Bernanke and his posse. This could not have been clearer than how it played out last night when Bernanke’s comments sent significant ripples through the market.
Initially misinterpreted, his remarks led to a significant bid tone hitting the greenback, but once they were chewed over and mulled considerably the old chest nut of “exceptionally low, for an extended period” kicked in and it was seemingly business as usual for USD bears.
The main movers on the back of this nonsense were the EUR and the Cable, but once the dust settled we saw the Cable catch a seriously bid tone and away we went. The cross now has 1.6900 firmly in its sights but might find it hard going ahead of the CPI data out this morning. News overnight in the Times also spoke about the fact that the UK recession is now firmly over….
(Pass the dutchy to the left hand side). I remain short of the GBPCHF and will be wrong and taken out of the trade above 1.7100, for now though I prefer that cross to the EURGBP which at t his stage despite logic is seriously eyeing the downside with talk this morning of stops sitting in under 0.8865.
The antipodeans still show promise even after the RBA minutes were released last night, indicating some level of indecision as to the next rate move. The market has all but priced in 25bps for December but after less than hawkish comments overnight the AUDUSD is looking a little more exposed and more stops are now sitting under the 0.9280 level, having cleared the first round at 0.9320 already this morning. Also hearing macro names on the offer this morning clearing out existing longs.
The USDJPY is taking a nosedive and no one is happier than I as I have been calling this thing lower for the last 2 weeks, 88.50/30 is now the next level to keep an eye on, and frankly I would expect a dead cat bounce out, translation, sell on rallies.
As for the EURUSD today, I am still a buyer on dips despite potentially ugly data out later this morning. 1.4950/30 through to 1.4870 should provide good support for the cross.
Markets are clearly risk appetite giddy and looking for more upside. In an atmosphere where the S&P makes new record highs for the year, gold continues steaming to new all time highs and the DXY is heading for new lows one can imagine how nervous the market is when listening to the likes of Bernanke and his posse. This could not have been clearer than how it played out last night when Bernanke’s comments sent significant ripples through the market.
Initially misinterpreted, his remarks led to a significant bid tone hitting the greenback, but once they were chewed over and mulled considerably the old chest nut of “exceptionally low, for an extended period” kicked in and it was seemingly business as usual for USD bears.
The main movers on the back of this nonsense were the EUR and the Cable, but once the dust settled we saw the Cable catch a seriously bid tone and away we went. The cross now has 1.6900 firmly in its sights but might find it hard going ahead of the CPI data out this morning. News overnight in the Times also spoke about the fact that the UK recession is now firmly over….
(Pass the dutchy to the left hand side). I remain short of the GBPCHF and will be wrong and taken out of the trade above 1.7100, for now though I prefer that cross to the EURGBP which at t his stage despite logic is seriously eyeing the downside with talk this morning of stops sitting in under 0.8865.
The antipodeans still show promise even after the RBA minutes were released last night, indicating some level of indecision as to the next rate move. The market has all but priced in 25bps for December but after less than hawkish comments overnight the AUDUSD is looking a little more exposed and more stops are now sitting under the 0.9280 level, having cleared the first round at 0.9320 already this morning. Also hearing macro names on the offer this morning clearing out existing longs.
The USDJPY is taking a nosedive and no one is happier than I as I have been calling this thing lower for the last 2 weeks, 88.50/30 is now the next level to keep an eye on, and frankly I would expect a dead cat bounce out, translation, sell on rallies.
As for the EURUSD today, I am still a buyer on dips despite potentially ugly data out later this morning. 1.4950/30 through to 1.4870 should provide good support for the cross.
poniedziałek, 16 listopada 2009
16/11 Forex Market Update
Prepared by John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank
Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."
The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.
(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."
He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.
Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."
Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?
Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.
Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.
Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."
The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.
(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."
He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.
Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."
Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?
Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.
Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.
16/11 - KOMENTARZ EKONOMICZNY
Przygotowal Pawel Kalinowski
• Japonski GDP lepszy od przewidywan - +1,2% q/q vs +0,7% przew., jednak wzrosty tokijskiego indeksu zostaly zniwelowane do minimum poprzez informacje o planowanych ogromnych emisjach dodatkowych ( min. Mitsubishi UFJ podobno planuje pozyskac z rynku 1 trylion jenow ! - to zawazylo takze na innych spolkach z tego sektora - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group minus 5.9%, Mizuho Financial Group minus 3.9% )
• Chinski minister handlu stwierdzil, ze *jest niesprawiedliwym wymaganie umocnienia tylko jednej waluty wobec dolara* w odniesieniu do informacji z zeszlego tygodnia o mozliwosci zwiekszenia wartosci chinskiej waluty wobec USD.
• FED Thomas Hoenig stwierdzil, ze nalezy wykluczyc *ZA DUZY BY UPASC* bez wzgledu na wielkosc firmy i polityczne wplywy.
• GM oswiadczyl, ze zacznie splacac rzadowa pozyczke w wysokosci 6,7 bn usd od 31.12, w wysokosci 1 bn kwartalnie.
• Zloto bije kolejne rekordy, tym razem powyzej 1130 usd.
• Czy dolar wytrzyma presje w dniu dzisiejszym ? ( dolar slabnie juz od rozpoczecia sesji azjatyckiej po oswiadczeniu na zakonczenie APEC Singapur , ze nalezy utrzymac wszystkie programy stymulujace do czasu potwierdzenia ozywienia w gospodarce , rowniez w dniu dzisiejszym USA placi kupon i wykupuje obligacje )
• Potencjalne czynniki, ktore moga miec wplyw na rynek to Sprzedaz Detaliczna w USA. Uwazamy, iz dane, ktore maja byc dzisiaj opublikowane moga pozytywnie zaskoczyc.
• 14-15 listopada odbylo sie spotkanie APEC: Prezydent Obama i inni liderzy APEC stwierdzili, ze uzaleznione od eksportu gospodarki azjatyckie nie moga polegac dluzej na amerykanskich konsumentach by podtrzymywac wzrost. Liderzy wyrazili swoje obawy dotyczace slabego dolara i renminbi, a takze globalnego poluzowania polityki pienieznej i plynnosci zasilajacej banki cenowe w Azji.
• PKB Strefy EURO wzroslo o 0.4% w III kwartale, wyciagajac region z recesji.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EU 11:00 CPI ( za pazdziernik )
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz Detaliczna / bez Sprzedazy samochodow osobowych Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 0,9% / 0.4% Wczesniej: -1.5% / 0.5%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5700, cel 5740. Stop Loss ponizej 5680.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5300, cel 5331. Stop Loss ponizej 5282.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1094, cel 1104. Stop Loss ponizej 1090.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy w piatek sprzedawali opcje ATM (at-the-money) i z barierami powyzej aktualnych poziomow cenowych spot z datami wygasniecia do 3 tygodni.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomow powyzej 1,50. Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1,4935-40, celem jest poziom 1,5015, a nawet 1,5065. Stop Loss ponizej 1,4890.
USDJPY: Oczekujemy , ze zadziala opor na poziomie 89,70-90 i kurs podazy w kierunku 89,20 , a nawet 88.70. Stop Loss powyzej 90.35
EURJPY: Wzrosty powinny zostac powstrzymane w okolicach 134.20-30, cel 133.50, a nawet 133.00. Stop Loss powyzej 134.70
GBPUSD: Neutralnie
AUDUSD: Jesli grajacym na zwyzke uda sie pokonac 0.9370 nastepnym celem bedzie 0.9425, jesli 0.9370 zadziala skutecznie jako opor, kurs moze powrocic do poziomu 0.9265
EURPLN: opor 4.11030, 4.1355, 4.1560 . Wsparcie 4.0770, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Przelamanie 2 miesiecznej lini trendu w okolicach 4,1825 doprowadzilo do spadkow ponizej 4,10. Kolejnym celem będzie wsparcie na poziomie 4.0635. Wszelkie wzrosty prawdopodobnie napotkaja silny opor na poziomie 4,1825 .
USDPLN: opor 2.7520, 2.7885 - mocny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7080, 2.6760 -silne, 2.6090 - silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie kieruje sie na 2.6760/2.6090. Krotkoterminowe wzrosty moga byc ograniczone do poziomu 2.8440.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ) Kolejne nowe szczyty w okolicach 1132
Strategia: Kupno na spadkach w kierunku 1120 z celem na poziomie 1131. Stop Loss ponizej 1115.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupno po przelamaniu poziomu 17.80 z celem na poziomie 18. Stop Loss ponizej 17.70
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po pokonaniu oporu na poziomie 77.80, cel 79.50. Stop Loss ponizej 76.80
www.saxobank.pl
• Japonski GDP lepszy od przewidywan - +1,2% q/q vs +0,7% przew., jednak wzrosty tokijskiego indeksu zostaly zniwelowane do minimum poprzez informacje o planowanych ogromnych emisjach dodatkowych ( min. Mitsubishi UFJ podobno planuje pozyskac z rynku 1 trylion jenow ! - to zawazylo takze na innych spolkach z tego sektora - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group minus 5.9%, Mizuho Financial Group minus 3.9% )
• Chinski minister handlu stwierdzil, ze *jest niesprawiedliwym wymaganie umocnienia tylko jednej waluty wobec dolara* w odniesieniu do informacji z zeszlego tygodnia o mozliwosci zwiekszenia wartosci chinskiej waluty wobec USD.
• FED Thomas Hoenig stwierdzil, ze nalezy wykluczyc *ZA DUZY BY UPASC* bez wzgledu na wielkosc firmy i polityczne wplywy.
• GM oswiadczyl, ze zacznie splacac rzadowa pozyczke w wysokosci 6,7 bn usd od 31.12, w wysokosci 1 bn kwartalnie.
• Zloto bije kolejne rekordy, tym razem powyzej 1130 usd.
• Czy dolar wytrzyma presje w dniu dzisiejszym ? ( dolar slabnie juz od rozpoczecia sesji azjatyckiej po oswiadczeniu na zakonczenie APEC Singapur , ze nalezy utrzymac wszystkie programy stymulujace do czasu potwierdzenia ozywienia w gospodarce , rowniez w dniu dzisiejszym USA placi kupon i wykupuje obligacje )
• Potencjalne czynniki, ktore moga miec wplyw na rynek to Sprzedaz Detaliczna w USA. Uwazamy, iz dane, ktore maja byc dzisiaj opublikowane moga pozytywnie zaskoczyc.
• 14-15 listopada odbylo sie spotkanie APEC: Prezydent Obama i inni liderzy APEC stwierdzili, ze uzaleznione od eksportu gospodarki azjatyckie nie moga polegac dluzej na amerykanskich konsumentach by podtrzymywac wzrost. Liderzy wyrazili swoje obawy dotyczace slabego dolara i renminbi, a takze globalnego poluzowania polityki pienieznej i plynnosci zasilajacej banki cenowe w Azji.
• PKB Strefy EURO wzroslo o 0.4% w III kwartale, wyciagajac region z recesji.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EU 11:00 CPI ( za pazdziernik )
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz Detaliczna / bez Sprzedazy samochodow osobowych Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 0,9% / 0.4% Wczesniej: -1.5% / 0.5%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5700, cel 5740. Stop Loss ponizej 5680.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5300, cel 5331. Stop Loss ponizej 5282.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1094, cel 1104. Stop Loss ponizej 1090.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy w piatek sprzedawali opcje ATM (at-the-money) i z barierami powyzej aktualnych poziomow cenowych spot z datami wygasniecia do 3 tygodni.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomow powyzej 1,50. Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1,4935-40, celem jest poziom 1,5015, a nawet 1,5065. Stop Loss ponizej 1,4890.
USDJPY: Oczekujemy , ze zadziala opor na poziomie 89,70-90 i kurs podazy w kierunku 89,20 , a nawet 88.70. Stop Loss powyzej 90.35
EURJPY: Wzrosty powinny zostac powstrzymane w okolicach 134.20-30, cel 133.50, a nawet 133.00. Stop Loss powyzej 134.70
GBPUSD: Neutralnie
AUDUSD: Jesli grajacym na zwyzke uda sie pokonac 0.9370 nastepnym celem bedzie 0.9425, jesli 0.9370 zadziala skutecznie jako opor, kurs moze powrocic do poziomu 0.9265
EURPLN: opor 4.11030, 4.1355, 4.1560 . Wsparcie 4.0770, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Przelamanie 2 miesiecznej lini trendu w okolicach 4,1825 doprowadzilo do spadkow ponizej 4,10. Kolejnym celem będzie wsparcie na poziomie 4.0635. Wszelkie wzrosty prawdopodobnie napotkaja silny opor na poziomie 4,1825 .
USDPLN: opor 2.7520, 2.7885 - mocny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7080, 2.6760 -silne, 2.6090 - silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie kieruje sie na 2.6760/2.6090. Krotkoterminowe wzrosty moga byc ograniczone do poziomu 2.8440.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ) Kolejne nowe szczyty w okolicach 1132
Strategia: Kupno na spadkach w kierunku 1120 z celem na poziomie 1131. Stop Loss ponizej 1115.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupno po przelamaniu poziomu 17.80 z celem na poziomie 18. Stop Loss ponizej 17.70
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po pokonaniu oporu na poziomie 77.80, cel 79.50. Stop Loss ponizej 76.80
www.saxobank.pl
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