Prepared by: Ken Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Markets are clearly risk appetite giddy and looking for more upside. In an atmosphere where the S&P makes new record highs for the year, gold continues steaming to new all time highs and the DXY is heading for new lows one can imagine how nervous the market is when listening to the likes of Bernanke and his posse. This could not have been clearer than how it played out last night when Bernanke’s comments sent significant ripples through the market.
Initially misinterpreted, his remarks led to a significant bid tone hitting the greenback, but once they were chewed over and mulled considerably the old chest nut of “exceptionally low, for an extended period” kicked in and it was seemingly business as usual for USD bears.
The main movers on the back of this nonsense were the EUR and the Cable, but once the dust settled we saw the Cable catch a seriously bid tone and away we went. The cross now has 1.6900 firmly in its sights but might find it hard going ahead of the CPI data out this morning. News overnight in the Times also spoke about the fact that the UK recession is now firmly over….
(Pass the dutchy to the left hand side). I remain short of the GBPCHF and will be wrong and taken out of the trade above 1.7100, for now though I prefer that cross to the EURGBP which at t his stage despite logic is seriously eyeing the downside with talk this morning of stops sitting in under 0.8865.
The antipodeans still show promise even after the RBA minutes were released last night, indicating some level of indecision as to the next rate move. The market has all but priced in 25bps for December but after less than hawkish comments overnight the AUDUSD is looking a little more exposed and more stops are now sitting under the 0.9280 level, having cleared the first round at 0.9320 already this morning. Also hearing macro names on the offer this morning clearing out existing longs.
The USDJPY is taking a nosedive and no one is happier than I as I have been calling this thing lower for the last 2 weeks, 88.50/30 is now the next level to keep an eye on, and frankly I would expect a dead cat bounce out, translation, sell on rallies.
As for the EURUSD today, I am still a buyer on dips despite potentially ugly data out later this morning. 1.4950/30 through to 1.4870 should provide good support for the cross.
wtorek, 17 listopada 2009
poniedziałek, 16 listopada 2009
16/11 Forex Market Update
Prepared by John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank
Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."
The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.
(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."
He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.
Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."
Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?
Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.
Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.
Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."
The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.
(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."
He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.
Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."
Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?
Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.
Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.
16/11 - KOMENTARZ EKONOMICZNY
Przygotowal Pawel Kalinowski
• Japonski GDP lepszy od przewidywan - +1,2% q/q vs +0,7% przew., jednak wzrosty tokijskiego indeksu zostaly zniwelowane do minimum poprzez informacje o planowanych ogromnych emisjach dodatkowych ( min. Mitsubishi UFJ podobno planuje pozyskac z rynku 1 trylion jenow ! - to zawazylo takze na innych spolkach z tego sektora - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group minus 5.9%, Mizuho Financial Group minus 3.9% )
• Chinski minister handlu stwierdzil, ze *jest niesprawiedliwym wymaganie umocnienia tylko jednej waluty wobec dolara* w odniesieniu do informacji z zeszlego tygodnia o mozliwosci zwiekszenia wartosci chinskiej waluty wobec USD.
• FED Thomas Hoenig stwierdzil, ze nalezy wykluczyc *ZA DUZY BY UPASC* bez wzgledu na wielkosc firmy i polityczne wplywy.
• GM oswiadczyl, ze zacznie splacac rzadowa pozyczke w wysokosci 6,7 bn usd od 31.12, w wysokosci 1 bn kwartalnie.
• Zloto bije kolejne rekordy, tym razem powyzej 1130 usd.
• Czy dolar wytrzyma presje w dniu dzisiejszym ? ( dolar slabnie juz od rozpoczecia sesji azjatyckiej po oswiadczeniu na zakonczenie APEC Singapur , ze nalezy utrzymac wszystkie programy stymulujace do czasu potwierdzenia ozywienia w gospodarce , rowniez w dniu dzisiejszym USA placi kupon i wykupuje obligacje )
• Potencjalne czynniki, ktore moga miec wplyw na rynek to Sprzedaz Detaliczna w USA. Uwazamy, iz dane, ktore maja byc dzisiaj opublikowane moga pozytywnie zaskoczyc.
• 14-15 listopada odbylo sie spotkanie APEC: Prezydent Obama i inni liderzy APEC stwierdzili, ze uzaleznione od eksportu gospodarki azjatyckie nie moga polegac dluzej na amerykanskich konsumentach by podtrzymywac wzrost. Liderzy wyrazili swoje obawy dotyczace slabego dolara i renminbi, a takze globalnego poluzowania polityki pienieznej i plynnosci zasilajacej banki cenowe w Azji.
• PKB Strefy EURO wzroslo o 0.4% w III kwartale, wyciagajac region z recesji.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EU 11:00 CPI ( za pazdziernik )
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz Detaliczna / bez Sprzedazy samochodow osobowych Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 0,9% / 0.4% Wczesniej: -1.5% / 0.5%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5700, cel 5740. Stop Loss ponizej 5680.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5300, cel 5331. Stop Loss ponizej 5282.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1094, cel 1104. Stop Loss ponizej 1090.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy w piatek sprzedawali opcje ATM (at-the-money) i z barierami powyzej aktualnych poziomow cenowych spot z datami wygasniecia do 3 tygodni.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomow powyzej 1,50. Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1,4935-40, celem jest poziom 1,5015, a nawet 1,5065. Stop Loss ponizej 1,4890.
USDJPY: Oczekujemy , ze zadziala opor na poziomie 89,70-90 i kurs podazy w kierunku 89,20 , a nawet 88.70. Stop Loss powyzej 90.35
EURJPY: Wzrosty powinny zostac powstrzymane w okolicach 134.20-30, cel 133.50, a nawet 133.00. Stop Loss powyzej 134.70
GBPUSD: Neutralnie
AUDUSD: Jesli grajacym na zwyzke uda sie pokonac 0.9370 nastepnym celem bedzie 0.9425, jesli 0.9370 zadziala skutecznie jako opor, kurs moze powrocic do poziomu 0.9265
EURPLN: opor 4.11030, 4.1355, 4.1560 . Wsparcie 4.0770, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Przelamanie 2 miesiecznej lini trendu w okolicach 4,1825 doprowadzilo do spadkow ponizej 4,10. Kolejnym celem będzie wsparcie na poziomie 4.0635. Wszelkie wzrosty prawdopodobnie napotkaja silny opor na poziomie 4,1825 .
USDPLN: opor 2.7520, 2.7885 - mocny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7080, 2.6760 -silne, 2.6090 - silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie kieruje sie na 2.6760/2.6090. Krotkoterminowe wzrosty moga byc ograniczone do poziomu 2.8440.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ) Kolejne nowe szczyty w okolicach 1132
Strategia: Kupno na spadkach w kierunku 1120 z celem na poziomie 1131. Stop Loss ponizej 1115.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupno po przelamaniu poziomu 17.80 z celem na poziomie 18. Stop Loss ponizej 17.70
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po pokonaniu oporu na poziomie 77.80, cel 79.50. Stop Loss ponizej 76.80
www.saxobank.pl
• Japonski GDP lepszy od przewidywan - +1,2% q/q vs +0,7% przew., jednak wzrosty tokijskiego indeksu zostaly zniwelowane do minimum poprzez informacje o planowanych ogromnych emisjach dodatkowych ( min. Mitsubishi UFJ podobno planuje pozyskac z rynku 1 trylion jenow ! - to zawazylo takze na innych spolkach z tego sektora - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group minus 5.9%, Mizuho Financial Group minus 3.9% )
• Chinski minister handlu stwierdzil, ze *jest niesprawiedliwym wymaganie umocnienia tylko jednej waluty wobec dolara* w odniesieniu do informacji z zeszlego tygodnia o mozliwosci zwiekszenia wartosci chinskiej waluty wobec USD.
• FED Thomas Hoenig stwierdzil, ze nalezy wykluczyc *ZA DUZY BY UPASC* bez wzgledu na wielkosc firmy i polityczne wplywy.
• GM oswiadczyl, ze zacznie splacac rzadowa pozyczke w wysokosci 6,7 bn usd od 31.12, w wysokosci 1 bn kwartalnie.
• Zloto bije kolejne rekordy, tym razem powyzej 1130 usd.
• Czy dolar wytrzyma presje w dniu dzisiejszym ? ( dolar slabnie juz od rozpoczecia sesji azjatyckiej po oswiadczeniu na zakonczenie APEC Singapur , ze nalezy utrzymac wszystkie programy stymulujace do czasu potwierdzenia ozywienia w gospodarce , rowniez w dniu dzisiejszym USA placi kupon i wykupuje obligacje )
• Potencjalne czynniki, ktore moga miec wplyw na rynek to Sprzedaz Detaliczna w USA. Uwazamy, iz dane, ktore maja byc dzisiaj opublikowane moga pozytywnie zaskoczyc.
• 14-15 listopada odbylo sie spotkanie APEC: Prezydent Obama i inni liderzy APEC stwierdzili, ze uzaleznione od eksportu gospodarki azjatyckie nie moga polegac dluzej na amerykanskich konsumentach by podtrzymywac wzrost. Liderzy wyrazili swoje obawy dotyczace slabego dolara i renminbi, a takze globalnego poluzowania polityki pienieznej i plynnosci zasilajacej banki cenowe w Azji.
• PKB Strefy EURO wzroslo o 0.4% w III kwartale, wyciagajac region z recesji.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EU 11:00 CPI ( za pazdziernik )
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz Detaliczna / bez Sprzedazy samochodow osobowych Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 0,9% / 0.4% Wczesniej: -1.5% / 0.5%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5700, cel 5740. Stop Loss ponizej 5680.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5300, cel 5331. Stop Loss ponizej 5282.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1094, cel 1104. Stop Loss ponizej 1090.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy w piatek sprzedawali opcje ATM (at-the-money) i z barierami powyzej aktualnych poziomow cenowych spot z datami wygasniecia do 3 tygodni.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomow powyzej 1,50. Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1,4935-40, celem jest poziom 1,5015, a nawet 1,5065. Stop Loss ponizej 1,4890.
USDJPY: Oczekujemy , ze zadziala opor na poziomie 89,70-90 i kurs podazy w kierunku 89,20 , a nawet 88.70. Stop Loss powyzej 90.35
EURJPY: Wzrosty powinny zostac powstrzymane w okolicach 134.20-30, cel 133.50, a nawet 133.00. Stop Loss powyzej 134.70
GBPUSD: Neutralnie
AUDUSD: Jesli grajacym na zwyzke uda sie pokonac 0.9370 nastepnym celem bedzie 0.9425, jesli 0.9370 zadziala skutecznie jako opor, kurs moze powrocic do poziomu 0.9265
EURPLN: opor 4.11030, 4.1355, 4.1560 . Wsparcie 4.0770, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Przelamanie 2 miesiecznej lini trendu w okolicach 4,1825 doprowadzilo do spadkow ponizej 4,10. Kolejnym celem będzie wsparcie na poziomie 4.0635. Wszelkie wzrosty prawdopodobnie napotkaja silny opor na poziomie 4,1825 .
USDPLN: opor 2.7520, 2.7885 - mocny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7080, 2.6760 -silne, 2.6090 - silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie kieruje sie na 2.6760/2.6090. Krotkoterminowe wzrosty moga byc ograniczone do poziomu 2.8440.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ) Kolejne nowe szczyty w okolicach 1132
Strategia: Kupno na spadkach w kierunku 1120 z celem na poziomie 1131. Stop Loss ponizej 1115.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupno po przelamaniu poziomu 17.80 z celem na poziomie 18. Stop Loss ponizej 17.70
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po pokonaniu oporu na poziomie 77.80, cel 79.50. Stop Loss ponizej 76.80
www.saxobank.pl
środa, 11 listopada 2009
11/11 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Kenneth Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Quiet markets overnight with equities remaining well bid and small retracements lower used as opportunities to seemingly buy more. Interestingly although not surprisingly Asia closed pretty much flat and the day ahead looks to be a quiet one with the US out on holiday or at least resting on the back of Veterans day. So in short expect the price action and liquidity to be thin at best.
Otherwise overnight of perhaps most interest was New Zealand’s Bollard out on the wires again jawboning the fate of the Kiwi, again repeating that such strength is undeserved in the local currency and ultimately not of any benefit to a faltering economy. Net result was only a small 30 point retracement lower in the NZDUSD. The AUDUSD on the other hand has once again failed at the 0.9330 mark and while it hasn’t come back too far it still seems to me that it’s running out of steam, but once again I urge caution in selling the cross too early. Look to the AUDNZD and as per previous comment look to sell the rally into 1.2650.
Today the only real event risk lies with the UK in the form of unemployment and the quarterly inflation report. The Cable comes in bid this morning with the market stop hunting in thin liquidity for orders sitting above 1.6750/70. I firmly believe we will see a buy the rumor sell the fact scenario unfold this morning and would be a seller of the cross on squeezes to what is likely to be 1.6830 at a stretch.
The EURGBP has held the 0.8950 level well overnight and looks like its gearing up for another serious attempt at 0.9050, although this will be entirely dependent on the Cable as per above.
As far as the other major crosses, I remain in the same frame of mind as yesterday in that we see tight trading ranges, with the USDJPY being a sell into 90.30, while the EURUSD is a buy on dips into 1.4950. As I print this though Gold makes new highs and the EURUSD goes with it, looking for the 1.5060 level.
Heads up for the BoE today and otherwise, all quiet on the western front.
www.saxobank.pl
Quiet markets overnight with equities remaining well bid and small retracements lower used as opportunities to seemingly buy more. Interestingly although not surprisingly Asia closed pretty much flat and the day ahead looks to be a quiet one with the US out on holiday or at least resting on the back of Veterans day. So in short expect the price action and liquidity to be thin at best.
Otherwise overnight of perhaps most interest was New Zealand’s Bollard out on the wires again jawboning the fate of the Kiwi, again repeating that such strength is undeserved in the local currency and ultimately not of any benefit to a faltering economy. Net result was only a small 30 point retracement lower in the NZDUSD. The AUDUSD on the other hand has once again failed at the 0.9330 mark and while it hasn’t come back too far it still seems to me that it’s running out of steam, but once again I urge caution in selling the cross too early. Look to the AUDNZD and as per previous comment look to sell the rally into 1.2650.
Today the only real event risk lies with the UK in the form of unemployment and the quarterly inflation report. The Cable comes in bid this morning with the market stop hunting in thin liquidity for orders sitting above 1.6750/70. I firmly believe we will see a buy the rumor sell the fact scenario unfold this morning and would be a seller of the cross on squeezes to what is likely to be 1.6830 at a stretch.
The EURGBP has held the 0.8950 level well overnight and looks like its gearing up for another serious attempt at 0.9050, although this will be entirely dependent on the Cable as per above.
As far as the other major crosses, I remain in the same frame of mind as yesterday in that we see tight trading ranges, with the USDJPY being a sell into 90.30, while the EURUSD is a buy on dips into 1.4950. As I print this though Gold makes new highs and the EURUSD goes with it, looking for the 1.5060 level.
Heads up for the BoE today and otherwise, all quiet on the western front.
www.saxobank.pl
wtorek, 10 listopada 2009
10/11 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Fair to say I’m feeling a little more chipper this morning and it may just have something to do with taking profit on half of my EURGBP long overnight. Clearly this position and the misery of the Cable was helped by overnight news that Fitch regards the UK the most likely of all developed nations to lose its AAA sovereign rating in the near future. Cable as a result took a swan dive of around 150 points lower and tested the 1.6600/6580 support zone. This was despite the fact that the RICS data posted almost 6 year highs (best results). It tells me that this market is sensitive to the Cable downside and is more likely to move spectacularly lower on the back of a bad inflation report tomorrow. On the day I am a cautious seller of rallies looking to scale in from 1.6680 up to 1.6750.
The EURUSD has retreated a little overnight despite the best performance of the DOW for 2009, but again price action is reminiscent of the last time it got to the 1.5000 area and pullbacks seem to be shallow. I believe we will be testing the 1.5060 area sooner rather than later and moves lower into 1.4930 and 1.4885 provide opportunities to get long into this move. Of interest although likely little impact for the cross today will be the ZEW index survey which is likely to continue its recent positive tone, but if anything I think this will be supportive of the EUR rather than outright bullish.
The AUD overnight failed to really capitalize on the good business confidence data out of Australia and this price action once again suggests to me that an exhaustive rally is in the making. I look for a test of 0.9330/40 to fail and would like to sell into that resistance. Trade minister Simon Crean last night almost verbosely repeated New Zealand’s English (of a few weeks ago) in saying that the domestic economy and exporters in particular will need to get used to a stronger currency and that this is simply representative of the shape of the domestic economy. Hmmm….
Otherwise in the USDJPY my feeling remains, a sell on rallies into 90.30 looking for 89.60 and a break of which shows 88.90.
One last comment on my EURGBP long, the next test is that of the overnight high 0.9015, a persistent and clean break of which takes us into the next resistance zone of 0.9050.
Fair to say I’m feeling a little more chipper this morning and it may just have something to do with taking profit on half of my EURGBP long overnight. Clearly this position and the misery of the Cable was helped by overnight news that Fitch regards the UK the most likely of all developed nations to lose its AAA sovereign rating in the near future. Cable as a result took a swan dive of around 150 points lower and tested the 1.6600/6580 support zone. This was despite the fact that the RICS data posted almost 6 year highs (best results). It tells me that this market is sensitive to the Cable downside and is more likely to move spectacularly lower on the back of a bad inflation report tomorrow. On the day I am a cautious seller of rallies looking to scale in from 1.6680 up to 1.6750.
The EURUSD has retreated a little overnight despite the best performance of the DOW for 2009, but again price action is reminiscent of the last time it got to the 1.5000 area and pullbacks seem to be shallow. I believe we will be testing the 1.5060 area sooner rather than later and moves lower into 1.4930 and 1.4885 provide opportunities to get long into this move. Of interest although likely little impact for the cross today will be the ZEW index survey which is likely to continue its recent positive tone, but if anything I think this will be supportive of the EUR rather than outright bullish.
The AUD overnight failed to really capitalize on the good business confidence data out of Australia and this price action once again suggests to me that an exhaustive rally is in the making. I look for a test of 0.9330/40 to fail and would like to sell into that resistance. Trade minister Simon Crean last night almost verbosely repeated New Zealand’s English (of a few weeks ago) in saying that the domestic economy and exporters in particular will need to get used to a stronger currency and that this is simply representative of the shape of the domestic economy. Hmmm….
Otherwise in the USDJPY my feeling remains, a sell on rallies into 90.30 looking for 89.60 and a break of which shows 88.90.
One last comment on my EURGBP long, the next test is that of the overnight high 0.9015, a persistent and clean break of which takes us into the next resistance zone of 0.9050.
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Wszystko wskazuje na to ze ponad 500 000 bezrobotnych w USA moze byc pozytywnym czynnikiem, ktory wywolal wczoraj dzien imponujacych wzrostow. W dniu wczorajszym nie bylo istotnych danych i praktycznie dzisiaj rowniez ich nie ma (aczkolwiek sondaz ZEW jest godny uwagi). Utrzymujemy nadal nasze stanowisko kupowania ryzykownych aktywow na odbiciach.
Stany Zjednoczone maja deficyt do pokrycia i dlatego zaleja rynek w tym tygodniu 81 miliardami USD w obligacjach. Proces ten rozpoczal sie wczoraj 40 miliardami USD w 3-letnich obligacjach i okazal sie sukcesem z wysokimi wskaznikami bid-to-cover (co oznacza, ze popyt na amerykanskie obligacje jest wysoki). Dzisiaj rozpocznie sie aukcja 25 miliardow USD w 10-letnich obligacjach.
Grupa czlonkow FED bedzie miala dzisiaj przemowienia (Lockhart 14:15, Yellen 15:05, Rosengren 16:15 i Tarullo o 20:30), ktore moga wplynac na zachowanie rynkow.
Ryzyko powraca do gry. Brak sygnałów ze strony G20, które wskazywałyby na zmianę polityki pieniężnej stał się powodem wzrostu apetytu na ryzyko na szerokim rynku. Najprawdopodobniej nastroje te będą się utrzymywać.
Agencja ratingowa FITCH ostrzega UK , ze moze stracic rating AAA , imformacja powoduje znaczne oslabienie funta w godzinach porannych.
Francja – rozczarowujace dane o produkcji przemyslowej -1,5% m/m vs +0,5% przew.
Indeksy
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1088, cel 1104. Stop loss ponizej 1080.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5622, cel 5684. Stop loss ponizej 5595.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5239, cel 5287. Stop loss ponizej 5218.
Waluty
EURUSD: Jesli 1.4950 sie utrzyma oczekujemy testow ostatnich szczytow na 1.5060. Ponizej ryzyko spadku do 1.4915.
USDJPY: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach powyzej 90.00 lub przlamanie poziomu 89.65 w kierunku testu 89.26. Stop loss powyzej 90.50.
EURJPY: Opor znajduje sie na poziomie 135.00. Sprzedawaj odbicie do 134.80 z celem 134.00 a nastepnie 133.00. Stop loss powyzej 135.60.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj wzrosty w przedziale 1.6670-90 spodziewajac sie spadku ponizej 1.66 z celem na 1.6530.
AUDUSD: Wsparcie na 0,9250 musi sie utrzymac, aby wzrostu powyzej poziomu 0.93 byly mozliwe. Ponizej tego poziomu kurs spadnie do 0.92 zanim zobaczymy wzrosty.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 może siegnac 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2324 2: 4.2479 3: 4.2617. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.1927 2: 4.1874 3: 4.1750
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.7610 – silne 2: 2.7555 – silne, 3: 2.7420 - silne
ZŁOTO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku wsparcia na 1095, cel: kolejny test 1110. Stop loss ponizej 1088.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach do 17.20 w kierunku odbicia na poziom 17.45 i 17.60. Stop loss ponizej 17.08.
ROPA:
Strategia (CLZ9): Oczekujemy konsolidacji w przedziale 79.0 – 80.0.
Opracował Paweł Kalinowski
Stany Zjednoczone maja deficyt do pokrycia i dlatego zaleja rynek w tym tygodniu 81 miliardami USD w obligacjach. Proces ten rozpoczal sie wczoraj 40 miliardami USD w 3-letnich obligacjach i okazal sie sukcesem z wysokimi wskaznikami bid-to-cover (co oznacza, ze popyt na amerykanskie obligacje jest wysoki). Dzisiaj rozpocznie sie aukcja 25 miliardow USD w 10-letnich obligacjach.
Grupa czlonkow FED bedzie miala dzisiaj przemowienia (Lockhart 14:15, Yellen 15:05, Rosengren 16:15 i Tarullo o 20:30), ktore moga wplynac na zachowanie rynkow.
Ryzyko powraca do gry. Brak sygnałów ze strony G20, które wskazywałyby na zmianę polityki pieniężnej stał się powodem wzrostu apetytu na ryzyko na szerokim rynku. Najprawdopodobniej nastroje te będą się utrzymywać.
Agencja ratingowa FITCH ostrzega UK , ze moze stracic rating AAA , imformacja powoduje znaczne oslabienie funta w godzinach porannych.
Francja – rozczarowujace dane o produkcji przemyslowej -1,5% m/m vs +0,5% przew.
Indeksy
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1088, cel 1104. Stop loss ponizej 1080.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5622, cel 5684. Stop loss ponizej 5595.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5239, cel 5287. Stop loss ponizej 5218.
Waluty
EURUSD: Jesli 1.4950 sie utrzyma oczekujemy testow ostatnich szczytow na 1.5060. Ponizej ryzyko spadku do 1.4915.
USDJPY: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach powyzej 90.00 lub przlamanie poziomu 89.65 w kierunku testu 89.26. Stop loss powyzej 90.50.
EURJPY: Opor znajduje sie na poziomie 135.00. Sprzedawaj odbicie do 134.80 z celem 134.00 a nastepnie 133.00. Stop loss powyzej 135.60.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj wzrosty w przedziale 1.6670-90 spodziewajac sie spadku ponizej 1.66 z celem na 1.6530.
AUDUSD: Wsparcie na 0,9250 musi sie utrzymac, aby wzrostu powyzej poziomu 0.93 byly mozliwe. Ponizej tego poziomu kurs spadnie do 0.92 zanim zobaczymy wzrosty.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 może siegnac 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2324 2: 4.2479 3: 4.2617. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.1927 2: 4.1874 3: 4.1750
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.7610 – silne 2: 2.7555 – silne, 3: 2.7420 - silne
ZŁOTO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku wsparcia na 1095, cel: kolejny test 1110. Stop loss ponizej 1088.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach do 17.20 w kierunku odbicia na poziom 17.45 i 17.60. Stop loss ponizej 17.08.
ROPA:
Strategia (CLZ9): Oczekujemy konsolidacji w przedziale 79.0 – 80.0.
Opracował Paweł Kalinowski
poniedziałek, 9 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Fatalne piątkowe dane: Przeciętny godzinowy wymiar tygodnia pracy bez zmian na 33,0. Stopa bezrobocia – 10,2%. Zatrudnienie poza rolnictwem – 190,0 tys. – Pomimo spadku Wskaźnika aktywności zawodowej o 0,1%.
Później opublikowano dane dotyczące kredytów konsumpcyjnych -14.8 mld USD Pomimo CfC i zanim Citigroup podniosła oprocentowanie kart kredytowych do 30%.
Tak czy inaczej, optymizm na rynkach utrzymał się i kursy odbiły się po spadkach zanotowanych po publikacji danych. Kurs EURUSD wzrasta przy spadającej rentowności obligacji skarbowych.
Indeksy
Na dziś nie zaplanowano publikacji ważnych danych makro ani komunikatów spółek, więc spodziewamy się spokojnego dnia.
SP500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1068 z poziomem docelowym 1078. Stop poniżej 1065.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5513 z poziomem docelowym 5553. Stop poniżej 5495.
Waluty
EURUSD: Kurs sięgnął początkowego poziomu oporu na 1,4980. Wahania poniżej 1,50 przed ewentualnym przebiciem wyżej. Wsparcie: 1,4915.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 mozliwie odbije sie od 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2479 2: 4.2617 3: 4.2739. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.2140 - mocne, 2: 4.2073 3: 4.19
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.8088 2:87610 3: 2.7555 - mocne
Złoto
Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1100 z poziomem docelowym 1110. Stop poniżej 1095.
Ropa
Strategia (CLZ9): Kupuj po przełamaniu poziomu 78,70, poziom docelowy 80. Ustaw stop poniżej 78,25.
Opracował zespół Saxo Bank
Później opublikowano dane dotyczące kredytów konsumpcyjnych -14.8 mld USD Pomimo CfC i zanim Citigroup podniosła oprocentowanie kart kredytowych do 30%.
Tak czy inaczej, optymizm na rynkach utrzymał się i kursy odbiły się po spadkach zanotowanych po publikacji danych. Kurs EURUSD wzrasta przy spadającej rentowności obligacji skarbowych.
Indeksy
Na dziś nie zaplanowano publikacji ważnych danych makro ani komunikatów spółek, więc spodziewamy się spokojnego dnia.
SP500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1068 z poziomem docelowym 1078. Stop poniżej 1065.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5513 z poziomem docelowym 5553. Stop poniżej 5495.
Waluty
EURUSD: Kurs sięgnął początkowego poziomu oporu na 1,4980. Wahania poniżej 1,50 przed ewentualnym przebiciem wyżej. Wsparcie: 1,4915.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 mozliwie odbije sie od 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2479 2: 4.2617 3: 4.2739. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.2140 - mocne, 2: 4.2073 3: 4.19
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.8088 2:87610 3: 2.7555 - mocne
Złoto
Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1100 z poziomem docelowym 1110. Stop poniżej 1095.
Ropa
Strategia (CLZ9): Kupuj po przełamaniu poziomu 78,70, poziom docelowy 80. Ustaw stop poniżej 78,25.
Opracował zespół Saxo Bank
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