Dzień dobry,
Nawet nie wiem jak opisać wczorajszą noc i to jak najprawdopodobniej dzisiejszy dzień będzie wyglądał.. hmm.. BRZYDKO!
Dla tych spośród Was którzy wszelkie wczorajsze ruchy przypisują FOMC – żarty z siebie robicie i powinniście odłożyć prochy. Gorzka rzeczywistość jest taka, że nasz gość Ben nie ogłosił zupełnie nic nowego i z całą pewnością potwierdził retorykę „wydłużonego okresu”. W związku z tym USD nie odnotował żadnych pokaźnych ruchów. Było kilka (pseudo) nowych komentarzy dotyczących odporności rynków finansowych, a wśród nich ten diament: ‘Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth’ co w wolnym tłumaczeniu znaczy, że warunki na rynkach finansowych stały się bardziej sprzyjające dla rozwoju ekonomicznego. Ten komentarz niektórzy odebrali jako zapowiedź, że Fed w najbliższym czasie będzie przygotowywał rynki do rozpoczęcia dyskusji na temat strategii wyjścia, ale tylko do dyskusji i tylko o strategiach…
Dobrze, Ben już się nasłuchał (moje nowe ulubione hobby); skupmy się na tym co się dzieje. Interesującym w później sesji europejskiej był nieznaczny spadek USD związanym z próbą dosięgnięcia krótkoterminowych pozycji krótkich. Funt brytyjski i Euro osiągnęły najwyższe poziomy sesji, ale bardzo szybko powróciły w dół przed ogłoszeniem FOMC. Niecałe 4 godziny później rozpoczął się istny chaos, spowodowany głównie dalszą degradacją ratingu Grecji. Komentarze greckiego ministra finansów który stwierdził, że degradacja jest uzasadniona, gdyż jego kraj nie jest wiarygodny, dolały oliwy do ognia. Interesujące. To zwróciło naszą uwagę na bardzo cienki rynek świąteczny pozbawiony praktycznie jakichkolwiek konkretnych ruchów. To spowodowało otwarcie EUR i GBP z dużą przerwą do dołu i dzisiejszy poranek nie wykazuje żadnych oznak odwrócenia tej sytuacji.
Do tych, którzy się nie zgadzają – zdecydowanie zalecam przeanalizowanie DXY w celu lepszego zrozumienia jak to wszystko wygląda w stosunku do dolara.
W ciągu dnia, sprzedawaj wzrosty i kupuj dolara, albo jeszcze lepiej, w ogóle pozostań poza tym bardzo brzydkim rynkiem. Funt brytyjski będzie miał trudności powyżej 1,6270/80 a EURUSD dotrze do 1,4450/70 ale zostanie z powrotem brutalnie sprowadzone na dół. Na dzień dzisiejszy, to jednokierunkowa autostrada i jak mawiają w klasykach, „if you’re not with us, you’re against us”.
Z pozdrowieniami,
Ken Veksler.
czwartek, 17 grudnia 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Opracowal Pawel Kalinowski
FED ponownie obiecuje utrzymywac „wyjatkowo niskie“ stopy procentowe przez „dlugi okres czasu“. 10-letnia prognoza inflacji wzrosla o 20 punktow bazowych w ciagu 5 dni a USD ponownie umacnia sie po publikacji stanowiska FED. Korporacyjne CDS (Credit Default Swaps) znizkuja i wiekszosc spreadow kredytowych takze zachowuje sie przyzwoicie.
DAX zamkna sie na nowym rekordowym poziomie, S&P500 prawie bez zmian. W zwiazku z tym, iz miary ryzyka nadal sa korzystne, nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ jesli chodzi o rynki akcji.
Uwaga na poziom 0.8834 EURGBP, gdyz dane o sprzedazy detalicznej w Wielkiej Brytanii i impet GBP moze spowodowac wybicie do dolu.
Publikacje Makroekonomiczne
Wielka Brytania 10:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz detaliczna w Wielkiej Brytanii Miesiac-do-Miesiaca (LIST) Konsensus: 0.5% Wczesniej: 0.4%
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Liczba wnioskow o zasilki dla bezrobotnych / Liczba zarejestrowanych bezrobotnych Konsensus: 465 000 / 5170 000 Wczesniej: 474 000 / 5 157 000
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Wskazniki wyprzedzajace Miesiac-do-Miesiaca (LIST) Konsensus: 0.7% Wczesniej: 0.3%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5860 z celem 5920. Stop/loss ponizej 6835.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5280 z celem na 5330. Stop/loss ponizej 5260.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1104 z celem na 1115. Stop/loss ponizej 1099.
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach do 1.4430-50, potencjalne spadki mozliwe do poziomu 1.43. Jedynie powyzej 1.4520 mozliwe beda mocniejsze wzrosty.
USDJPY: Prawdopodobnie znajdzie wsparcie na poziomie 89.85-00, mozliwe wzrosty do 90.75.
EURJPY: Sprzedaj wybicie ponizej 129.50, lub wzrost do 130.25, z celem 129.0. Stop/loss powyzej 130.70.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach do 1.6275-85 z mozliwymi spadkami przez 1.62 w kierunku 1.6170. Stop/loss powyzej 1.6340.
AUDUSD: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 0.8920, w kierunku nastepnego wsparcia w postaci sredniej kroczacej na poziomie 0.8845. Mocny opor na 0.8960.
EURPLN: opor 4.2430 silny, 4.2615, 4.2740 silny. Wsparcie 4.1548, 4.1478, 4.1270 silne. Przelom przez 4.1975/2125 stworzylo mozliwosc testu 9m linii trendu na 4.2430, przelom otworzy droge do 4.3280. Ponizej 4.1140 moze odwrocic w/w scenariusz.
USDPLN: opor 2.9465 silny, 2.9565 silny, 2.9775 silny. Wsparcie 2.8505, 2.7850, 2.7365. Przedluzone wzmocnienie przez 2.8720 do celu 2.9465. Jesli przelamie 2.7885 wowczas moze nastapic opoznienie i moze pojawic sie ryzyko powrotu do 2.7175/2.6960.
Kontrakty Futures
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1135 i celem na 1115. Stop/loss powyzej 1143.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 17.65 i celem 17.35. Stop/loss powyzej 17.80.
ROPA (CLZ0): Sprzedawaj w okolicach 72.50 z celem na 71.00. Stop/loss powyzej 73.25.
FED ponownie obiecuje utrzymywac „wyjatkowo niskie“ stopy procentowe przez „dlugi okres czasu“. 10-letnia prognoza inflacji wzrosla o 20 punktow bazowych w ciagu 5 dni a USD ponownie umacnia sie po publikacji stanowiska FED. Korporacyjne CDS (Credit Default Swaps) znizkuja i wiekszosc spreadow kredytowych takze zachowuje sie przyzwoicie.
DAX zamkna sie na nowym rekordowym poziomie, S&P500 prawie bez zmian. W zwiazku z tym, iz miary ryzyka nadal sa korzystne, nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ jesli chodzi o rynki akcji.
Uwaga na poziom 0.8834 EURGBP, gdyz dane o sprzedazy detalicznej w Wielkiej Brytanii i impet GBP moze spowodowac wybicie do dolu.
Publikacje Makroekonomiczne
Wielka Brytania 10:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz detaliczna w Wielkiej Brytanii Miesiac-do-Miesiaca (LIST) Konsensus: 0.5% Wczesniej: 0.4%
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Liczba wnioskow o zasilki dla bezrobotnych / Liczba zarejestrowanych bezrobotnych Konsensus: 465 000 / 5170 000 Wczesniej: 474 000 / 5 157 000
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Wskazniki wyprzedzajace Miesiac-do-Miesiaca (LIST) Konsensus: 0.7% Wczesniej: 0.3%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5860 z celem 5920. Stop/loss ponizej 6835.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5280 z celem na 5330. Stop/loss ponizej 5260.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1104 z celem na 1115. Stop/loss ponizej 1099.
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach do 1.4430-50, potencjalne spadki mozliwe do poziomu 1.43. Jedynie powyzej 1.4520 mozliwe beda mocniejsze wzrosty.
USDJPY: Prawdopodobnie znajdzie wsparcie na poziomie 89.85-00, mozliwe wzrosty do 90.75.
EURJPY: Sprzedaj wybicie ponizej 129.50, lub wzrost do 130.25, z celem 129.0. Stop/loss powyzej 130.70.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach do 1.6275-85 z mozliwymi spadkami przez 1.62 w kierunku 1.6170. Stop/loss powyzej 1.6340.
AUDUSD: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 0.8920, w kierunku nastepnego wsparcia w postaci sredniej kroczacej na poziomie 0.8845. Mocny opor na 0.8960.
EURPLN: opor 4.2430 silny, 4.2615, 4.2740 silny. Wsparcie 4.1548, 4.1478, 4.1270 silne. Przelom przez 4.1975/2125 stworzylo mozliwosc testu 9m linii trendu na 4.2430, przelom otworzy droge do 4.3280. Ponizej 4.1140 moze odwrocic w/w scenariusz.
USDPLN: opor 2.9465 silny, 2.9565 silny, 2.9775 silny. Wsparcie 2.8505, 2.7850, 2.7365. Przedluzone wzmocnienie przez 2.8720 do celu 2.9465. Jesli przelamie 2.7885 wowczas moze nastapic opoznienie i moze pojawic sie ryzyko powrotu do 2.7175/2.6960.
Kontrakty Futures
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 1135 i celem na 1115. Stop/loss powyzej 1143.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 17.65 i celem 17.35. Stop/loss powyzej 17.80.
ROPA (CLZ0): Sprzedawaj w okolicach 72.50 z celem na 71.00. Stop/loss powyzej 73.25.
środa, 16 grudnia 2009
16/12 Trader's Diary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
A great night to be an Australian mortgage holder as deputy RBA Governor Battelino commented in no uncertain terms that thanks to the greed of local Australian banks the job of the RBA in raising rates has effectively been done….
Well sort of. What he did really say was that due to the local institutions hiking rates over and above recent official rises the OCR has now moved into “fair value” or a normal range and that there should now be a leveling out of further moves by the RBA.
This was enough to send the AUD into a tail spin and the cross that I have been bearish for some time on tripped stop orders sitting below the 0.9000 handle and was further helped on its way with disappointing GDP data. Needless to say “Merry Christmas” for me. Looking ahead for this pair I see small squeezes higher that are on a corrective path but I remain bearish and target 0.8780 before the end of this week.
Right enough of my unadulterated happiness, let’s look at the central bank mania that is today. We’ve started off with the Swedish Riks bank which has left rates unchanged and release a more dovish comment this morning than expected but to little avail to the EURSEK cross which at the time of print remains relatively unmoved. Next on the agenda is the Norges bank which promises to hold a surprise 25bps hike, and if failing to deliver on that will undoubtedly provide hawkish commentary that will serve the purpose.
Otherwise we have the FOMC tonight which should leave us breathless… Well not really, our man Ben most likely will not deviate from recent language and continue on the low rates for an extended period rhetoric…. Either way I remain a dollar bull and look for further upside out of the greenback. We also have EZ CPI and UK Unemployment, both of which should ensure that the respective crosses remain capped on small corrective moves higher.
With regard the majors I see the following today;
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4570/80, and I’m a cautious seller into those levels, but warn punters out there to be wary of ugly stops sitting just above.
GBPUSD: Sell, sell, sell…. 1.6350 is the level today if you even see it there and I continue to target 1.6150/00
USDCAD: Play the range, if aint broke don’t fix it. Sell into 1.0650/80 and take them back around 1.0580
USDJPY: Look for a nasty squeeze into 90.30 and from there sell your grandmother, this thing is going lower and I look for 89.30 as the first target followed by clean outs of weak stops into 88.80
AUDUSD: Refer above but the short message is SELL!
AUDNZD: I remain short 25% of my original position and now firmly target 1.2470/50 for limit orders.
A great night to be an Australian mortgage holder as deputy RBA Governor Battelino commented in no uncertain terms that thanks to the greed of local Australian banks the job of the RBA in raising rates has effectively been done….
Well sort of. What he did really say was that due to the local institutions hiking rates over and above recent official rises the OCR has now moved into “fair value” or a normal range and that there should now be a leveling out of further moves by the RBA.
This was enough to send the AUD into a tail spin and the cross that I have been bearish for some time on tripped stop orders sitting below the 0.9000 handle and was further helped on its way with disappointing GDP data. Needless to say “Merry Christmas” for me. Looking ahead for this pair I see small squeezes higher that are on a corrective path but I remain bearish and target 0.8780 before the end of this week.
Right enough of my unadulterated happiness, let’s look at the central bank mania that is today. We’ve started off with the Swedish Riks bank which has left rates unchanged and release a more dovish comment this morning than expected but to little avail to the EURSEK cross which at the time of print remains relatively unmoved. Next on the agenda is the Norges bank which promises to hold a surprise 25bps hike, and if failing to deliver on that will undoubtedly provide hawkish commentary that will serve the purpose.
Otherwise we have the FOMC tonight which should leave us breathless… Well not really, our man Ben most likely will not deviate from recent language and continue on the low rates for an extended period rhetoric…. Either way I remain a dollar bull and look for further upside out of the greenback. We also have EZ CPI and UK Unemployment, both of which should ensure that the respective crosses remain capped on small corrective moves higher.
With regard the majors I see the following today;
EURUSD: Capped at 1.4570/80, and I’m a cautious seller into those levels, but warn punters out there to be wary of ugly stops sitting just above.
GBPUSD: Sell, sell, sell…. 1.6350 is the level today if you even see it there and I continue to target 1.6150/00
USDCAD: Play the range, if aint broke don’t fix it. Sell into 1.0650/80 and take them back around 1.0580
USDJPY: Look for a nasty squeeze into 90.30 and from there sell your grandmother, this thing is going lower and I look for 89.30 as the first target followed by clean outs of weak stops into 88.80
AUDUSD: Refer above but the short message is SELL!
AUDNZD: I remain short 25% of my original position and now firmly target 1.2470/50 for limit orders.
wtorek, 15 grudnia 2009
15/12 Trader's Diary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.
Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).
On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.
In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.
The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.
To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.
Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.
Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).
On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.
In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.
The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.
To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.
poniedziałek, 14 grudnia 2009
14/12 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…
It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….
Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;
• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC
None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:
EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.
GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.
USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.
AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!
USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.
Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.
This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.
Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…
It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….
Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;
• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC
None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.
So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:
EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.
GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.
USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.
AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!
USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.
Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.
This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.
piątek, 11 grudnia 2009
11/12 Daily market commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank
And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.
If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.
The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.
On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.
With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;
EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.
GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.
USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.
AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.
USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.
EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.
That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.
And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.
If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.
The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.
On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.
With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;
EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.
GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.
USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.
AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.
USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.
EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.
That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.
Obserwuj zachowanie dolara po danych dotyczących sprzedaży detalicznej
Co się dzieje?
Lepsze dane z Chin ( wzrost gospodarczy + produkcja ) mogą spowodować powrót apetytu na ryzyko, głównymi beneficjentami mogą być: ropa i zloto.
Korporacyjne CDS w dolarach spready obligacji korporacyjnych zawężają się coraz bardziej. Powrót apetytu na ryzyko może zostac w pełni odbudowany jesli kurs EURUSD powróci i zdoła się utrzymać powyżej 1.4856 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca ). Zapalnikiem w dniu dzisiejszym mogą być dane z USA dotyczące sprzedaży detalicznej
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.67%, SP500 +0.58%, NASD +0.33% ), japoński NIKKEI 225 +2.48%
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Kalendarium
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrócić uwagę na sprzedaż detaliczną z USA i reakcję dolara na te dane.
UK godz. 10:30 polskiego czasu - Inflacja PPI
ECB godz. 13:15 polskiego czasu - wystąpienie Tricheta
POLSKA godz. 14:00 polskiego czasu - Bilans handlowy
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Sprzedaż detaliczna
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - U. Michigan.
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Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krótką stronę w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670. Oporem 55-dniowa średnia krocząca
USDJPY: Wzrosty mogą być kontynuowane. Kupno na dołkach ( okolice 88.60 ), oczekujemy pokonania 89.07 ( tygodniowy pivot ).
EURJPY: Możliwe wzrosty – korekta.
GBPUSD: Wybicie dołem ponizej 1.6250 nie bylo trwale. Konsolidacja – możliwy ruch w gorę w kierunku 1.6380 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca)
EURPLN: opór 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przełamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia się na wydłuzenie trendu niedźwiedzia. Jeśli obecne ożywienie zatrzyma się poniżej 4.1975, wówczas niedźwiedzie są nadal faworyzowane ( niższy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opór 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje się nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym może być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamknięcia )
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Indeksy giełdowe
DAX: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5735, cel 5770. Stop loss poniżej 5722.
FTSE: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5257, cel 5288. Stop loss poniżej 5241.
S&P500: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1105, cel 1110. Stop loss poniżej 1101.
NADAQ 100: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1802, cel 1808. Stop loss poniżej 1798.
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Kontrakty Futures:
ZłOTO: Kupuj w okolicach połomu 1135, cel 1150. Stop loss poniżej 1129.
SREBRO: Kupuj na przełamaniu 17.50, cel 17.70. Stop loss poniżej 17.40.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj w okolicach 71, cel 73. Stop loss poniżej 70.10.
Lepsze dane z Chin ( wzrost gospodarczy + produkcja ) mogą spowodować powrót apetytu na ryzyko, głównymi beneficjentami mogą być: ropa i zloto.
Korporacyjne CDS w dolarach spready obligacji korporacyjnych zawężają się coraz bardziej. Powrót apetytu na ryzyko może zostac w pełni odbudowany jesli kurs EURUSD powróci i zdoła się utrzymać powyżej 1.4856 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca ). Zapalnikiem w dniu dzisiejszym mogą być dane z USA dotyczące sprzedaży detalicznej
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.67%, SP500 +0.58%, NASD +0.33% ), japoński NIKKEI 225 +2.48%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kalendarium
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrócić uwagę na sprzedaż detaliczną z USA i reakcję dolara na te dane.
UK godz. 10:30 polskiego czasu - Inflacja PPI
ECB godz. 13:15 polskiego czasu - wystąpienie Tricheta
POLSKA godz. 14:00 polskiego czasu - Bilans handlowy
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Sprzedaż detaliczna
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - U. Michigan.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy krótką stronę w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670. Oporem 55-dniowa średnia krocząca
USDJPY: Wzrosty mogą być kontynuowane. Kupno na dołkach ( okolice 88.60 ), oczekujemy pokonania 89.07 ( tygodniowy pivot ).
EURJPY: Możliwe wzrosty – korekta.
GBPUSD: Wybicie dołem ponizej 1.6250 nie bylo trwale. Konsolidacja – możliwy ruch w gorę w kierunku 1.6380 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca)
EURPLN: opór 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przełamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia się na wydłuzenie trendu niedźwiedzia. Jeśli obecne ożywienie zatrzyma się poniżej 4.1975, wówczas niedźwiedzie są nadal faworyzowane ( niższy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opór 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje się nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym może być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamknięcia )
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indeksy giełdowe
DAX: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5735, cel 5770. Stop loss poniżej 5722.
FTSE: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5257, cel 5288. Stop loss poniżej 5241.
S&P500: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1105, cel 1110. Stop loss poniżej 1101.
NADAQ 100: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1802, cel 1808. Stop loss poniżej 1798.
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Kontrakty Futures:
ZłOTO: Kupuj w okolicach połomu 1135, cel 1150. Stop loss poniżej 1129.
SREBRO: Kupuj na przełamaniu 17.50, cel 17.70. Stop loss poniżej 17.40.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj w okolicach 71, cel 73. Stop loss poniżej 70.10.
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