Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Trader, Saxo Bank
Last week came to an interesting end and this week promises to offer similar if not slightly more subdued price action. The excitement all stemmed from thin liquidity while the American’s were stuffing themselves full of turkey and Dubai was slowly sinking under the weight of the Palm’s development and mounting unserviceable debt. Neither event should come as a shock to anyone (definitely not the former), at least not to anyone that has a concept of global macroeconomic developments.
Most people should have at least been aware if not entirely wary of the fact that the cranes in Dubai have stood still and silent for almost 9 months now with life practically coming to a standstill in what was going to be the fastest developing economic zone/region of the world.
The lonely emirate was caught up in all the excitement of an overheating economy and decided that now was the time to capitalize and begin massive capital works projects including building the world’s biggest airport to service the hordes of people they were expecting to come through the nation in the coming years.
But as we all know things took a definitive nosedive and understandably this demand that they had counted on had waned significantly, so it should come as no surprise (although clearly on Thurs/Fri it did) that things we going to fall down sooner or later. Things were further complicated not only by thin liquidity and nervous markets not wanting to give away gains made over the last 9 months but also a religious holiday in the region that left no one minding the shop front and able to offer any comment on the issue. Understandably risk firmly fell off the menu and the greenback made a stellar recovery…..
We walk in this morning to the tune of overnight news from the UAE that they will not let the tiny sovereign nation fail and in fact have heard pledges from the UAE central bank regarding helping with liquidity and evaluating on an ad hoc basis the need to cover the odd monthly payment in order to help Dubai out. Shock me! And of course everything has come back in on the news meaning that the greenback is sold off once more (hello risk, my old friend), Dubai CDS have tightened by a factor of about 10% and the markets now look for the ominous month end fixing due later this afternoon.
The week ahead….
Well in a nut shell I expect more volatility, this time however it will focus on data/event risk rather than American’s on holiday or nations’ reneging on debt payments. Otherwise for the most part it should be business as usual, the S&P will slowly grind its way towards 1121, the EURUSD will move accordingly but will be rejected on first attempt at 1.5150/60 and the DXY will very likely look for the lows it found recently.
Data wise as noted above we’re going to be fairly busy this week and the highlights include;
Monday: CAD GDP
Euro Zone CPI
Tuesday: RBA Rate decision (market is 60% pricing in another 25bps)
US ISM Manufacturing
Thursday: ECB Rate decision
UK PMI
Euro zone GDP
Friday: US NFP
CAD Unemployment
So I hear you all ask, what’s my view on the majors? Well I’m glad you asked because here it is;
EURUSD: As noted above this thing is still a buy on dips but I warn of deeper corrections, happy to start averaging in longs from 1.4950 down to 1.4830, looking for 1.5164
GBPUSD: Still a sell on rallies and even these rallies are beginning to finally look tired. 1.6700/50 presents great selling and I look for a return to 1.6250.
USDJPY: Still looks ugly and anything into 87.00/50 is just begging to get hit. No matter the amount of verbal intervention the JPY government is still not prepared to do anything and while this is the case the cross is going looking for 85 and perhaps even lower.
AUDUSD: Strange to keep repeating myself but I sell the cross on rallies into the safety of the previously rejected zone around 0.9300/50 and recommend trading the range looking to pick it back up into 0.9000.
EURGBP: Despite what I wrote above and intuitively you would expect this cross higher, but I suggest keeping an eye on it this week as I think 0.9190/00 marks solid enough resistance to see this thing correct short term into 0.9050.
USDCAD: Looks healthy if you enjoy playing a range based on good macro rationale. 1.0700/50 is great selling territory as I noted late last week and traders should look for the bottom of the range 1.0450/80 to fix profits.
GBPCHF: I remain short half of original position and look to fade the move lower probably closing out the rest of the position gradually looking for 1.6420/50 as the average for profit taking.
AUDNZD: Those following my commentaries will be aware that I am now short this cross at an average of 1.2755 and look for the move below 1.2670 to confirm my suspicions.
www.saxobank.pl
poniedziałek, 30 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Bank Centralny Zjednoczonych Emiratow Arabskich zapewnil dodatkowa plynnosc dla instytucji finansowych w regionie podczas weekendu.
Cadbury – JPM and BofA sa gotowe pozyczyc grupie Hershey wiecej niz 7bn USD, celem ma byc przebicie oferty Krafta wartej 16.2 bn usd – Hershey chce zaoferowac 17 bn usd.
Japonski MF zaprzeczyl, ze kiedykolwiek stwierdzil , iz interwencja na rynku Forex jest niemozliwa.
Przedstawiciel Banku Japonii Shirakawa – bacznie obserwujemy jaki wplyw na korporacyjny sentyment ma wzrost wartosci JPY, gdy bedzie taka potrzeba bedziemy reagowac zdecydowanie.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
CAD 14:30 ( polskiego czasu ) PKB ( kw/kw - za 3 kw ) przew. 1.0%
USD 15:45 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik Chicago PMI ( za listopad ) przew. 53.5
USD 16:30 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik aktywnosci w rejonie Dallas prze. 0%
Indeksy
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj: Kupuj na dolech.
DAX: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5710, cel 5755. Stop Loss ponizej 5686.
FTSE: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5287, cel 5327. Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj po pokonaniu 1096, cel 1103, Stop Loss ponizej 1093.
Waluty
EURUSD: Potrzeba przelamania wsparcia w okolicach 1.5000 aby dalsze spadki byly mozliwe, przewidujemy 1.50-1.51
EURPLN: opor 4.1975, 4.2127 mocny, 4.2365. Wsparcie 4.0920 mocne, 4.0742 mocne, 4.0635 mocne.
Zeszlotygodniowe wzrosty w okolice 4.1633 potwierdzily wyższy dolek na poziomie 4.0920 z możliwością wzrostow w kierunku 4.2740. Spadki poznizej 4.0920 zaneguja ten byczy scenariusz.
USDPLN: opor 2.8296, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7515 , 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne.
Wzrosty powyżej 2.81 umozliwia wzrosty w kierunku 2.8720, a nawet 2.9498, zamkniecie ponad tym poziomem spowoduje zmiane trendu średnioterminowego.
USDJPY: W krotkim terminie szczyt na 87.40. Preferujemy sprzedaz na zrostach kierunku 87.15, cel 85.70, Stop Loss powyżej 87.55.
EURJPY: Odbicie prawdopodobnie napotka opor w okolicach 130.80. Preferujemy krotkie pozycje z celem na poziomie 129.35, Stop Loss powyżej 131.10
GBPUSD: Sprzedaj na wzrostach w kierunku1.6585, cel 1.6470, Stop Loss powyżej 1.6640
AUDUSD: Kupuj na dolkach w kierunku 0.9100, cel 0.9190, Stop Loss poniżej 0.9075
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na dolech w kierunku 1165, cel 1180, Stop Loss ponizej 1158.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 18.00, cel 17.75, Stop Loss powyzej 18.10
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po przelamaniu 76.70, cel 78.50, Stop Loss ponizej 75.75.
Przygotował Zespół Saxo Bank
Cadbury – JPM and BofA sa gotowe pozyczyc grupie Hershey wiecej niz 7bn USD, celem ma byc przebicie oferty Krafta wartej 16.2 bn usd – Hershey chce zaoferowac 17 bn usd.
Japonski MF zaprzeczyl, ze kiedykolwiek stwierdzil , iz interwencja na rynku Forex jest niemozliwa.
Przedstawiciel Banku Japonii Shirakawa – bacznie obserwujemy jaki wplyw na korporacyjny sentyment ma wzrost wartosci JPY, gdy bedzie taka potrzeba bedziemy reagowac zdecydowanie.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
CAD 14:30 ( polskiego czasu ) PKB ( kw/kw - za 3 kw ) przew. 1.0%
USD 15:45 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik Chicago PMI ( za listopad ) przew. 53.5
USD 16:30 ( polskiego czasu ) Wskaznik aktywnosci w rejonie Dallas prze. 0%
Indeksy
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj: Kupuj na dolech.
DAX: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5710, cel 5755. Stop Loss ponizej 5686.
FTSE: Kupuj po pokonaniu 5287, cel 5327. Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj po pokonaniu 1096, cel 1103, Stop Loss ponizej 1093.
Waluty
EURUSD: Potrzeba przelamania wsparcia w okolicach 1.5000 aby dalsze spadki byly mozliwe, przewidujemy 1.50-1.51
EURPLN: opor 4.1975, 4.2127 mocny, 4.2365. Wsparcie 4.0920 mocne, 4.0742 mocne, 4.0635 mocne.
Zeszlotygodniowe wzrosty w okolice 4.1633 potwierdzily wyższy dolek na poziomie 4.0920 z możliwością wzrostow w kierunku 4.2740. Spadki poznizej 4.0920 zaneguja ten byczy scenariusz.
USDPLN: opor 2.8296, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7515 , 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne.
Wzrosty powyżej 2.81 umozliwia wzrosty w kierunku 2.8720, a nawet 2.9498, zamkniecie ponad tym poziomem spowoduje zmiane trendu średnioterminowego.
USDJPY: W krotkim terminie szczyt na 87.40. Preferujemy sprzedaz na zrostach kierunku 87.15, cel 85.70, Stop Loss powyżej 87.55.
EURJPY: Odbicie prawdopodobnie napotka opor w okolicach 130.80. Preferujemy krotkie pozycje z celem na poziomie 129.35, Stop Loss powyżej 131.10
GBPUSD: Sprzedaj na wzrostach w kierunku1.6585, cel 1.6470, Stop Loss powyżej 1.6640
AUDUSD: Kupuj na dolkach w kierunku 0.9100, cel 0.9190, Stop Loss poniżej 0.9075
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na dolech w kierunku 1165, cel 1180, Stop Loss ponizej 1158.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Sprzedaj po przelamaniu 18.00, cel 17.75, Stop Loss powyzej 18.10
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po przelamaniu 76.70, cel 78.50, Stop Loss ponizej 75.75.
Przygotował Zespół Saxo Bank
piątek, 27 listopada 2009
27/11 Daily Comment
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.
All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.
Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.
A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:
USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.
USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.
EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.
AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.
GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.
Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.
Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.
The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.
European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3
UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6
The world has turned on its ear overnight and its all down to one very important story that has by my estimations been blown a little out of proportion. Clearly everyone has heard and read about the Dubai debt fears and this sentiment has completely taken out any enthusiasm in the risk markets for now. This story couple with thin liquidity on the back of an absent US market and yearend profit fixing after tremendous equity market growth is leading to massive sell off’s across the board.
All the usual suspects in terms of risk currencies are suffering and without going into extended detail now is definitely not the time to panic. Only one thing can in some part allay current fears and that is an official comment of some sort out of Dubai.
Problem here though is the fact that that part of the world is in the middle of their most religious holiday period and no such statement is going to be forthcoming any time too soon. In equity terms we need 1062/65 to hold on the S&P for any semblance of risk appetite returning in the coming days otherwise we’ll quickly be down at 1042/30 and looking a whole lot worse.
A quick rundown of overnight action in the majors looks a little like this:
USDJPY: HORRIBLE! This pair continues lower and is now looking for 84.70 having traded as low as 84.90 overnight. Natural supply comes in at 86.50. No amount of jawboning is helping this cross and despite best efforts to scare the market into thinking of mass global intervention the Japanese government is powerless to do anything.
USDCAD: Trades to the upper end of the recent downward corridor helped in large part to gold gapping and oil following suit. I am still a seller (cautiously albeit) into 1.0800 with stops about 1% above looking for an orderly if not boring return into 1.0550/0480.
EURUSD: This thing is looking for and will soon find 1.4750 at which point I would think long and hard about initiating any new longs.
AUDNZD: Despite last night’s mess, this cross and my short are looking ok for now and continue to consolidate (run out of steam) on the top end.
GBPUSD: Refer below, but in short this thing is still a massive sell on rallies.
Of all those exposed most heavily to Dubai, the UK is worst off (refer below) and that in a major way explains the Cable decline overnight not least of which coupled with the broad based gains in the greenback overnight. Looking at the Dollar index we have recovered major losses and are now looking to press the top end of the recent downward channel in this index.
Gold also took a hit this morning gapping the better part of $20 with major stops being taken out of an overextended long market. Next target to the downside here 1125/30 and I must admit I have it firmly in my sights in the next 48 hours.
The view for the day is to stay the hell out of trouble and avoid the carnage that is presently the market. This thing is not over yet and the dust will only potentially begin to settle early next week.
European banks exposure to United Arab Emirates Billion of USD as of June 2009
Total 87.3
UK
49.5
France
11.3
Germany
10.2
Netherlands
4.7
Switzerland
4.3
Italy
1.9
Belgium
1.3
US
9.9
Japan
8.6
czwartek, 26 listopada 2009
26/11 Daily commentary
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving ventral banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
www.saxobank.pl
Interesting moves overnight not least of which involving ventral banks and delinquent governments. I of course refer to the CHF and JPY crosses which were the biggest movers overnight and their respective crosses saw some serious price action.
Starting with the JPY and more precisely the USDJPY, a cross that has been heavy for the better part of the last 2 weeks saw a serious strengthening of the JPY yesterday taking out not only major support levels and associated stops sitting precariously below, but also long standing and previously well protected option barriers around the 87.50 and 87.00 levels.
It all started in the European session as one particular French name was involved in the first round of selling breaking the 87.50 support level and forcing the cross to multi year lows into 87.15. After a slight recovery the push lower resumed once again and overnight we saw more levels taken out in what was very one way price action. Clearly the crosses also took a battering and with the AUD looking rather sheepish the next biggest move was that in the AUDJPY which gave up around 2 big figures on the move although it has recovered a little this morning.
Jawboning by the Japanese Finance Minister did nothing but confuse the market and perhaps set traders sights on testing the government’s resolve. End result, the verbal intervention amounted to only mentioning that they would monitor price action closely and not allow for too greater volatility. They’re kidding right? Have they been looking at the screen at all?
Otherwise the other big mover was the CHF, which sought, found and broke through parity against the greenback overnight and only for some direct intervention in the USDCHF initially this morning, followed then by EURCHF saw the thing move the better part of 80 pips, hah ha ha…. Clever as they might be the SNB seems poorly positioned to currently take on a market which is hell bent on forcing their hand. The line in the sand for intervention has now been moved and the dynamic turned in that EURCHF is now practically a sell on rallies rather than previously being a good buy into artificial central bank support around the 1.5080 level. Keep an eye on this one folks, I’m pretty certain we haven’t yet seen the end of this move.
America, land of the free and brave and overweight is on holiday today and price action promises to be thin and whippy at best as a result. We saw the EURUSD climb to 1.5140 overnight and has only had a slight retreat since. I think pullbacks might be a little deeper than most expect and this, once cleaning out weak stops and positions, present good buying opportunities. I still see the 1.5164 as the intermediate target on the upside.
I remain short the GBPCHF and in large part thanks to the CHF, and somewhat less the Cable we see this cross hit my first target overnight of 1.6560 where I take half my position back. I look for 1.6400/30 to take the rest back but will see how the market runs. While we’re on the Cable, this thing refuses to make a move of any real substance and I remain a seller of rallies into 1.6700/50 looking for 1.6550 as first take profit levels.
Otherwise as a side note I am short the AUDNZD cross at 1.2731 and have another order to sell some at 1.2777, with a stop for the whole position at 1.2843, looking to target (modestly) 1.2627 and further out 1.2530. This trade is not for the faint hearted and will take time, so if you lack the patience to watch paint dry or grass grow I suggest you best not get involved.
www.saxobank.pl
poniedziałek, 23 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Cena zlota ustanawia nowe rekordy a rynki azjatyckie wzrosly. AUD i NZD wyzej przez weekend. S&P 500 takze wzrasta. 10-letnia prognozowana stopa inflacji znajduje sie w okolicach 2.2% (pozytywny sygnal dla wzrostow na gieldach).
Rynki nadal sa otwarte na ryzyko i nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ w kierunku wsparcia na S&P500 na poziomie 1084.
Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtornym moze spowodowac wzrosty na rynkach akcji. Oczekujemy pozytywnej niespodzianki.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtórnym Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 2,3% Wczesniej: 9.4% SAXO BANK OCZEKUJE: 3.6%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5599, cel 5657. Stop Loss ponizej 5566.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku poziomu 5214, cel 5256. Stop Loss ponizej 5194.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1086, cel 1096, Stop Loss ponizej 1083.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosci wzrosly w piatek wskutek poglosek o duzej opcji typu DOUBLE NO TOUCH z bariera na poziomie 1.48
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz aktualne wzrosty wyhamuja w okolicach poziomu 1.4960 by przetestowac 1.4840. Stop ponownie powyzej 1,5015.
EURPLN: opor 4.1633 silny, 4.1850, 4.2127 silny. Wsparcie 4.0990, 4.0800, 4.0742 silne. Korekta w zeszlym tygodniu zaczela sie wypalac. Opor ok 4.1825 moze byc gornym limitem przed spadkiem przez 4.0635.
USDPLN: opor 2.7978, 2.8100 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7285, 2.7110, 2.7080 silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Potencjalny poziom maks na 2.8100 przed możliwym spadkiem w kierunku 2.6090.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1150 (luka), cel 1161, Stop ponizej 1147.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 18.50, cel: 18.,7 Stop Loss ponizej 18.40.
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupuj po przelamaniu 78.65, cel 80. Stop Loss ponizej 78.10.
Cena zlota ustanawia nowe rekordy a rynki azjatyckie wzrosly. AUD i NZD wyzej przez weekend. S&P 500 takze wzrasta. 10-letnia prognozowana stopa inflacji znajduje sie w okolicach 2.2% (pozytywny sygnal dla wzrostow na gieldach).
Rynki nadal sa otwarte na ryzyko i nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ w kierunku wsparcia na S&P500 na poziomie 1084.
Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtornym moze spowodowac wzrosty na rynkach akcji. Oczekujemy pozytywnej niespodzianki.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz domow na rynku wtórnym Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 2,3% Wczesniej: 9.4% SAXO BANK OCZEKUJE: 3.6%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 5599, cel 5657. Stop Loss ponizej 5566.
FTSE: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku poziomu 5214, cel 5256. Stop Loss ponizej 5194.
S&P500: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1086, cel 1096, Stop Loss ponizej 1083.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosci wzrosly w piatek wskutek poglosek o duzej opcji typu DOUBLE NO TOUCH z bariera na poziomie 1.48
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz aktualne wzrosty wyhamuja w okolicach poziomu 1.4960 by przetestowac 1.4840. Stop ponownie powyzej 1,5015.
EURPLN: opor 4.1633 silny, 4.1850, 4.2127 silny. Wsparcie 4.0990, 4.0800, 4.0742 silne. Korekta w zeszlym tygodniu zaczela sie wypalac. Opor ok 4.1825 moze byc gornym limitem przed spadkiem przez 4.0635.
USDPLN: opor 2.7978, 2.8100 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7285, 2.7110, 2.7080 silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Potencjalny poziom maks na 2.8100 przed możliwym spadkiem w kierunku 2.6090.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 )
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 1150 (luka), cel 1161, Stop ponizej 1147.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupuj na oslabieniach w kierunku 18.50, cel: 18.,7 Stop Loss ponizej 18.40.
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupuj po przelamaniu 78.65, cel 80. Stop Loss ponizej 78.10.
środa, 18 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii powinno byc interesujace. Bank Anglii zaskoczyl rynek pare tygodoni temu podnoszac cel poluzowania ilosciowego o 25 miliardow funtow a nie 50 miliardow jak oczekiwano. W dniu dzisiejszym ma byc opublikowany amerykanski Wskaznik Cen i Produktow (CPI) i publikacja ta moze rozczarowac rynek. Oczekujemy, iz zarowno CPI jak i wskaznik inflacji bazowej (Core CPI) pozostana bez zmian, minimalnie ponizej consensusu i oczekiwan rynku. Produkcja Przemyslowa i Wykorzystanie Mocy Produkcyjnych wczoraj delikatnie rozczarowaly. Czy wrzesniowy raport to tylko pozostalosci po programie dofinansowanych przez rzad amerykanski wymiany starych samochodow ? Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych jest dzisiaj bardzo istotna publikacja. Dotyczas wskaznik ten ustabilizowal sie na poziomie ponizej 600 tys., lecz potrzebna jest ciagla poprawa, aby poprawa gospodarcza mogla sie utrzymac.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Wielka Brytania 10:30 czasu polskiego Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego CPI (Rok-do-Roku) Oczekiwania: -0.3% Wczesniej: -1.3%
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych Oczekiwania: 600 tys. Wczesniej: 590 tys.
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5791, cel 5812, Stop Loss ponizej 5780.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5354, cel 5375. Stop Loss ponizej 5345.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1111, cel 1117. Stop Loss ponizej 1109.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy kupowali krotkoterminowe opcje kupna EUR lecz ogolnie rzecz biorac bylo dosc spokojnie. Kurs SPOT nie mogl przelamac uksztaltowanych ostatnio przedzialow zmiennosci, oczekujemy, iz Gamma bedzie operowala na niskich poziomach.
USDJPY: Opcje o krotkim terminie wygasniecia beda sie sprzedawac przy kursie SPOT, ktory zmienil sie o ledwie 20 punktow w czasie sesji azjatyckiej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie oporu na 1.4900-10, oczekujac ponownego testu poziomu 1.4825, stop loss powyzej 1.4950
EURPLN: opor 4.1111, 4.1355, 4.1562. Wsparcie 4.0742 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Ograniczony spadek niewiele powyzej kluczowego poziomu 4.0635. Możliwa korekta w kierunku 4.1825 przed odbiciem w kierunku 4.0635, na przedluzenie trednu niedzwiedzia do 4.0000.
USDPLN: opor 2.7721, 2.7885 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7110, 2.7080 silne, 2.6760 silne. Przelamanie 3m bazy konsolidacji na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Oczekiwane spadek w kierunku 2.6090, mozliwie nizej, podczas gdy 2.8440 jest limitem gornym.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ): Moze miec problem z przelamaniem poziomu 1145. Ryzyko glebszej korekty w najblizszym czasie do 1132, mozliwy takze spadek do 1127.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9): Preferujemy sprzedaz na wzrostach do 18.40 lub przelamanie ponizej 18.30 z celem na 18.20
ROPA :
(CLZ9) : Moze osiagnac szczyt w najblizszym czasie na poziomie 80 USD. Mozliwe spadki do 78.50.
Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii powinno byc interesujace. Bank Anglii zaskoczyl rynek pare tygodoni temu podnoszac cel poluzowania ilosciowego o 25 miliardow funtow a nie 50 miliardow jak oczekiwano. W dniu dzisiejszym ma byc opublikowany amerykanski Wskaznik Cen i Produktow (CPI) i publikacja ta moze rozczarowac rynek. Oczekujemy, iz zarowno CPI jak i wskaznik inflacji bazowej (Core CPI) pozostana bez zmian, minimalnie ponizej consensusu i oczekiwan rynku. Produkcja Przemyslowa i Wykorzystanie Mocy Produkcyjnych wczoraj delikatnie rozczarowaly. Czy wrzesniowy raport to tylko pozostalosci po programie dofinansowanych przez rzad amerykanski wymiany starych samochodow ? Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych jest dzisiaj bardzo istotna publikacja. Dotyczas wskaznik ten ustabilizowal sie na poziomie ponizej 600 tys., lecz potrzebna jest ciagla poprawa, aby poprawa gospodarcza mogla sie utrzymac.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
Wielka Brytania 10:30 czasu polskiego Sprawozdanie z ostatniego spotkania dotyczacego decyzji o stopach procentowych Banku Anglii
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego CPI (Rok-do-Roku) Oczekiwania: -0.3% Wczesniej: -1.3%
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Dynamika rozpoczetych inwestycji budowlanych Oczekiwania: 600 tys. Wczesniej: 590 tys.
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5791, cel 5812, Stop Loss ponizej 5780.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5354, cel 5375. Stop Loss ponizej 5345.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1111, cel 1117. Stop Loss ponizej 1109.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy kupowali krotkoterminowe opcje kupna EUR lecz ogolnie rzecz biorac bylo dosc spokojnie. Kurs SPOT nie mogl przelamac uksztaltowanych ostatnio przedzialow zmiennosci, oczekujemy, iz Gamma bedzie operowala na niskich poziomach.
USDJPY: Opcje o krotkim terminie wygasniecia beda sie sprzedawac przy kursie SPOT, ktory zmienil sie o ledwie 20 punktow w czasie sesji azjatyckiej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie oporu na 1.4900-10, oczekujac ponownego testu poziomu 1.4825, stop loss powyzej 1.4950
EURPLN: opor 4.1111, 4.1355, 4.1562. Wsparcie 4.0742 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Ograniczony spadek niewiele powyzej kluczowego poziomu 4.0635. Możliwa korekta w kierunku 4.1825 przed odbiciem w kierunku 4.0635, na przedluzenie trednu niedzwiedzia do 4.0000.
USDPLN: opor 2.7721, 2.7885 silny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7110, 2.7080 silne, 2.6760 silne. Przelamanie 3m bazy konsolidacji na 2.7555 ponownie uruchomilo trend niedzwiedzia. Oczekiwane spadek w kierunku 2.6090, mozliwie nizej, podczas gdy 2.8440 jest limitem gornym.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ): Moze miec problem z przelamaniem poziomu 1145. Ryzyko glebszej korekty w najblizszym czasie do 1132, mozliwy takze spadek do 1127.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9): Preferujemy sprzedaz na wzrostach do 18.40 lub przelamanie ponizej 18.30 z celem na 18.20
ROPA :
(CLZ9) : Moze osiagnac szczyt w najblizszym czasie na poziomie 80 USD. Mozliwe spadki do 78.50.
wtorek, 17 listopada 2009
17/11 Daily Market Commentary
Prepared by: Ken Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Markets are clearly risk appetite giddy and looking for more upside. In an atmosphere where the S&P makes new record highs for the year, gold continues steaming to new all time highs and the DXY is heading for new lows one can imagine how nervous the market is when listening to the likes of Bernanke and his posse. This could not have been clearer than how it played out last night when Bernanke’s comments sent significant ripples through the market.
Initially misinterpreted, his remarks led to a significant bid tone hitting the greenback, but once they were chewed over and mulled considerably the old chest nut of “exceptionally low, for an extended period” kicked in and it was seemingly business as usual for USD bears.
The main movers on the back of this nonsense were the EUR and the Cable, but once the dust settled we saw the Cable catch a seriously bid tone and away we went. The cross now has 1.6900 firmly in its sights but might find it hard going ahead of the CPI data out this morning. News overnight in the Times also spoke about the fact that the UK recession is now firmly over….
(Pass the dutchy to the left hand side). I remain short of the GBPCHF and will be wrong and taken out of the trade above 1.7100, for now though I prefer that cross to the EURGBP which at t his stage despite logic is seriously eyeing the downside with talk this morning of stops sitting in under 0.8865.
The antipodeans still show promise even after the RBA minutes were released last night, indicating some level of indecision as to the next rate move. The market has all but priced in 25bps for December but after less than hawkish comments overnight the AUDUSD is looking a little more exposed and more stops are now sitting under the 0.9280 level, having cleared the first round at 0.9320 already this morning. Also hearing macro names on the offer this morning clearing out existing longs.
The USDJPY is taking a nosedive and no one is happier than I as I have been calling this thing lower for the last 2 weeks, 88.50/30 is now the next level to keep an eye on, and frankly I would expect a dead cat bounce out, translation, sell on rallies.
As for the EURUSD today, I am still a buyer on dips despite potentially ugly data out later this morning. 1.4950/30 through to 1.4870 should provide good support for the cross.
Markets are clearly risk appetite giddy and looking for more upside. In an atmosphere where the S&P makes new record highs for the year, gold continues steaming to new all time highs and the DXY is heading for new lows one can imagine how nervous the market is when listening to the likes of Bernanke and his posse. This could not have been clearer than how it played out last night when Bernanke’s comments sent significant ripples through the market.
Initially misinterpreted, his remarks led to a significant bid tone hitting the greenback, but once they were chewed over and mulled considerably the old chest nut of “exceptionally low, for an extended period” kicked in and it was seemingly business as usual for USD bears.
The main movers on the back of this nonsense were the EUR and the Cable, but once the dust settled we saw the Cable catch a seriously bid tone and away we went. The cross now has 1.6900 firmly in its sights but might find it hard going ahead of the CPI data out this morning. News overnight in the Times also spoke about the fact that the UK recession is now firmly over….
(Pass the dutchy to the left hand side). I remain short of the GBPCHF and will be wrong and taken out of the trade above 1.7100, for now though I prefer that cross to the EURGBP which at t his stage despite logic is seriously eyeing the downside with talk this morning of stops sitting in under 0.8865.
The antipodeans still show promise even after the RBA minutes were released last night, indicating some level of indecision as to the next rate move. The market has all but priced in 25bps for December but after less than hawkish comments overnight the AUDUSD is looking a little more exposed and more stops are now sitting under the 0.9280 level, having cleared the first round at 0.9320 already this morning. Also hearing macro names on the offer this morning clearing out existing longs.
The USDJPY is taking a nosedive and no one is happier than I as I have been calling this thing lower for the last 2 weeks, 88.50/30 is now the next level to keep an eye on, and frankly I would expect a dead cat bounce out, translation, sell on rallies.
As for the EURUSD today, I am still a buyer on dips despite potentially ugly data out later this morning. 1.4950/30 through to 1.4870 should provide good support for the cross.
poniedziałek, 16 listopada 2009
16/11 Forex Market Update
Prepared by John Hardy, Consulting FX Specialist, Saxo Bank
Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."
The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.
(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."
He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.
Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."
Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?
Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.
Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.
Asian officials talk up the USD carry trade bubble Officials from China and Japan were out overnight complaining about US monetary policy and the risks it poses for the creation of asset bubbles - largely a fait accompli in our view, though the bubble can certainly worsen from here. Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission said that low rates in the US and a falling dollar could mean "new, real and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy."
The Bank of Japan's Shirakawa said the emerging economies "might overheat and experience financial turmoil". These are the kinds of signals broadcast by officialdom as Obama continues his Asian tour. He is China through midweek, and will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao on Tuesday.
One might think that the situation would lead to the Chinese considering an appreciation of their currency vs. the greenback, but the imbalanced recovery in China is likely the reason for its maintenance of a virtual peg. Recent signals emerged suggesting that China is looking to move again on the yuan after freezing its level vs. the dollar since the beginning of the crisis.
(The cynic might chime in that the "signals" for yuan appreciation were merely an olive branch extended ahead of Obama's visit.) In any case, China's stance on its intention for the yuan were muddled by the Chinese Commerce Ministry's Yao overnight, who stated that a stronger yuan "is not conducive to a global economic recovery is not fair."
He also stated that "It's necessary for us to provide a stable and predictable environment in terms of macro-economic and exchange rate policies." He did NOT say 'we're petrified that the recovery will not materialize as hoped and that we risk a massive asset crash in China', though that might be closer to the truth...
Yao's very clear statement suggests that yuan policy is unlikely to change in the immediate future. This is actually EURUSD bullish as it presents the risk of additional reserve diversification pressures on the greenback. The situation in EURCNY, meanwhile, is becoming untenable, and it will be interesting to see how the Europeans treat the issue in coming months.
Whenever the Chinese finally do move on the yuan, it will actually be USD-bullish vs. Europe, as it could short-circuit the reserve diversification trade, even as the USD would decline vs. Asia. The IMF's Strauss-Kahn holds the view that the Chinese need to move on the yuan and stated last night that "Allowing the yuan and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labor share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorient investment."
Other Asian news included a Japanese GDP report showing better than expected growth. JPY crosses have bounced back sharply higher from Friday's lows, choosing to follow the risk appetite rather than the moves in interest rates, which suggest that the JPY should be stronger here. EURJPY is one of the more interesting crosses to watch of late for JPY direction as it has mostly traded within a 200-pip range for eight trading days now and has failed to break in either direction.
US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data for the month of October showed an anemic rise ex Autos. So-called "Black Friday" - the first Friday after next Thursday's Thanksgiving - is fast approaching and is the next major indicator for the strength of holiday shopping in the US. It's hard to imagine a strong shopping season considering record real unemployment since WW II, dour "present situation" indicators for confidence, higher savings rates, anemic wage growth for those still with a job, and tighter credit conditions. Will this market ever see a reality check?
Looking ahead
We seem to be back in bubble inflation mode as we start this week. Gold has vaulted to new highs, the commodity currencies are rattling their cages once again, and equities are trading just off recent highs for the cycle. Last week's interesting move to USD strength failed to follow through and we're currently neutral in a narrow zone, looking at recent bubble highs to see if they will hold the market back from another round of risk appetite. To the downside on risk, we have last week's highs in the greenback that need to be breached to reinvigorate the argument for dollar strength again.
Watch out for the Fed's Bernanke out speaking in the US today. All signs are that the Fed is in a cautious, wait and see mode, but any turn of phrase can rock the boat.
16/11 - KOMENTARZ EKONOMICZNY
Przygotowal Pawel Kalinowski
• Japonski GDP lepszy od przewidywan - +1,2% q/q vs +0,7% przew., jednak wzrosty tokijskiego indeksu zostaly zniwelowane do minimum poprzez informacje o planowanych ogromnych emisjach dodatkowych ( min. Mitsubishi UFJ podobno planuje pozyskac z rynku 1 trylion jenow ! - to zawazylo takze na innych spolkach z tego sektora - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group minus 5.9%, Mizuho Financial Group minus 3.9% )
• Chinski minister handlu stwierdzil, ze *jest niesprawiedliwym wymaganie umocnienia tylko jednej waluty wobec dolara* w odniesieniu do informacji z zeszlego tygodnia o mozliwosci zwiekszenia wartosci chinskiej waluty wobec USD.
• FED Thomas Hoenig stwierdzil, ze nalezy wykluczyc *ZA DUZY BY UPASC* bez wzgledu na wielkosc firmy i polityczne wplywy.
• GM oswiadczyl, ze zacznie splacac rzadowa pozyczke w wysokosci 6,7 bn usd od 31.12, w wysokosci 1 bn kwartalnie.
• Zloto bije kolejne rekordy, tym razem powyzej 1130 usd.
• Czy dolar wytrzyma presje w dniu dzisiejszym ? ( dolar slabnie juz od rozpoczecia sesji azjatyckiej po oswiadczeniu na zakonczenie APEC Singapur , ze nalezy utrzymac wszystkie programy stymulujace do czasu potwierdzenia ozywienia w gospodarce , rowniez w dniu dzisiejszym USA placi kupon i wykupuje obligacje )
• Potencjalne czynniki, ktore moga miec wplyw na rynek to Sprzedaz Detaliczna w USA. Uwazamy, iz dane, ktore maja byc dzisiaj opublikowane moga pozytywnie zaskoczyc.
• 14-15 listopada odbylo sie spotkanie APEC: Prezydent Obama i inni liderzy APEC stwierdzili, ze uzaleznione od eksportu gospodarki azjatyckie nie moga polegac dluzej na amerykanskich konsumentach by podtrzymywac wzrost. Liderzy wyrazili swoje obawy dotyczace slabego dolara i renminbi, a takze globalnego poluzowania polityki pienieznej i plynnosci zasilajacej banki cenowe w Azji.
• PKB Strefy EURO wzroslo o 0.4% w III kwartale, wyciagajac region z recesji.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EU 11:00 CPI ( za pazdziernik )
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz Detaliczna / bez Sprzedazy samochodow osobowych Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 0,9% / 0.4% Wczesniej: -1.5% / 0.5%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5700, cel 5740. Stop Loss ponizej 5680.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5300, cel 5331. Stop Loss ponizej 5282.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1094, cel 1104. Stop Loss ponizej 1090.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy w piatek sprzedawali opcje ATM (at-the-money) i z barierami powyzej aktualnych poziomow cenowych spot z datami wygasniecia do 3 tygodni.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomow powyzej 1,50. Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1,4935-40, celem jest poziom 1,5015, a nawet 1,5065. Stop Loss ponizej 1,4890.
USDJPY: Oczekujemy , ze zadziala opor na poziomie 89,70-90 i kurs podazy w kierunku 89,20 , a nawet 88.70. Stop Loss powyzej 90.35
EURJPY: Wzrosty powinny zostac powstrzymane w okolicach 134.20-30, cel 133.50, a nawet 133.00. Stop Loss powyzej 134.70
GBPUSD: Neutralnie
AUDUSD: Jesli grajacym na zwyzke uda sie pokonac 0.9370 nastepnym celem bedzie 0.9425, jesli 0.9370 zadziala skutecznie jako opor, kurs moze powrocic do poziomu 0.9265
EURPLN: opor 4.11030, 4.1355, 4.1560 . Wsparcie 4.0770, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Przelamanie 2 miesiecznej lini trendu w okolicach 4,1825 doprowadzilo do spadkow ponizej 4,10. Kolejnym celem będzie wsparcie na poziomie 4.0635. Wszelkie wzrosty prawdopodobnie napotkaja silny opor na poziomie 4,1825 .
USDPLN: opor 2.7520, 2.7885 - mocny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7080, 2.6760 -silne, 2.6090 - silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie kieruje sie na 2.6760/2.6090. Krotkoterminowe wzrosty moga byc ograniczone do poziomu 2.8440.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ) Kolejne nowe szczyty w okolicach 1132
Strategia: Kupno na spadkach w kierunku 1120 z celem na poziomie 1131. Stop Loss ponizej 1115.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupno po przelamaniu poziomu 17.80 z celem na poziomie 18. Stop Loss ponizej 17.70
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po pokonaniu oporu na poziomie 77.80, cel 79.50. Stop Loss ponizej 76.80
www.saxobank.pl
• Japonski GDP lepszy od przewidywan - +1,2% q/q vs +0,7% przew., jednak wzrosty tokijskiego indeksu zostaly zniwelowane do minimum poprzez informacje o planowanych ogromnych emisjach dodatkowych ( min. Mitsubishi UFJ podobno planuje pozyskac z rynku 1 trylion jenow ! - to zawazylo takze na innych spolkach z tego sektora - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group minus 5.9%, Mizuho Financial Group minus 3.9% )
• Chinski minister handlu stwierdzil, ze *jest niesprawiedliwym wymaganie umocnienia tylko jednej waluty wobec dolara* w odniesieniu do informacji z zeszlego tygodnia o mozliwosci zwiekszenia wartosci chinskiej waluty wobec USD.
• FED Thomas Hoenig stwierdzil, ze nalezy wykluczyc *ZA DUZY BY UPASC* bez wzgledu na wielkosc firmy i polityczne wplywy.
• GM oswiadczyl, ze zacznie splacac rzadowa pozyczke w wysokosci 6,7 bn usd od 31.12, w wysokosci 1 bn kwartalnie.
• Zloto bije kolejne rekordy, tym razem powyzej 1130 usd.
• Czy dolar wytrzyma presje w dniu dzisiejszym ? ( dolar slabnie juz od rozpoczecia sesji azjatyckiej po oswiadczeniu na zakonczenie APEC Singapur , ze nalezy utrzymac wszystkie programy stymulujace do czasu potwierdzenia ozywienia w gospodarce , rowniez w dniu dzisiejszym USA placi kupon i wykupuje obligacje )
• Potencjalne czynniki, ktore moga miec wplyw na rynek to Sprzedaz Detaliczna w USA. Uwazamy, iz dane, ktore maja byc dzisiaj opublikowane moga pozytywnie zaskoczyc.
• 14-15 listopada odbylo sie spotkanie APEC: Prezydent Obama i inni liderzy APEC stwierdzili, ze uzaleznione od eksportu gospodarki azjatyckie nie moga polegac dluzej na amerykanskich konsumentach by podtrzymywac wzrost. Liderzy wyrazili swoje obawy dotyczace slabego dolara i renminbi, a takze globalnego poluzowania polityki pienieznej i plynnosci zasilajacej banki cenowe w Azji.
• PKB Strefy EURO wzroslo o 0.4% w III kwartale, wyciagajac region z recesji.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EU 11:00 CPI ( za pazdziernik )
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Sprzedaz Detaliczna / bez Sprzedazy samochodow osobowych Miesiac-do-miesiaca (Pazdziernik) Oczekiwania: 0,9% / 0.4% Wczesniej: -1.5% / 0.5%
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5700, cel 5740. Stop Loss ponizej 5680.
FTSE: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 5300, cel 5331. Stop Loss ponizej 5282.
S&P500: Kupuj po przelamaniu poziomu 1094, cel 1104. Stop Loss ponizej 1090.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Brokerzy w piatek sprzedawali opcje ATM (at-the-money) i z barierami powyzej aktualnych poziomow cenowych spot z datami wygasniecia do 3 tygodni.
Waluty
EURUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomow powyzej 1,50. Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1,4935-40, celem jest poziom 1,5015, a nawet 1,5065. Stop Loss ponizej 1,4890.
USDJPY: Oczekujemy , ze zadziala opor na poziomie 89,70-90 i kurs podazy w kierunku 89,20 , a nawet 88.70. Stop Loss powyzej 90.35
EURJPY: Wzrosty powinny zostac powstrzymane w okolicach 134.20-30, cel 133.50, a nawet 133.00. Stop Loss powyzej 134.70
GBPUSD: Neutralnie
AUDUSD: Jesli grajacym na zwyzke uda sie pokonac 0.9370 nastepnym celem bedzie 0.9425, jesli 0.9370 zadziala skutecznie jako opor, kurs moze powrocic do poziomu 0.9265
EURPLN: opor 4.11030, 4.1355, 4.1560 . Wsparcie 4.0770, 4.0635 silne, 4.0100. Przelamanie 2 miesiecznej lini trendu w okolicach 4,1825 doprowadzilo do spadkow ponizej 4,10. Kolejnym celem będzie wsparcie na poziomie 4.0635. Wszelkie wzrosty prawdopodobnie napotkaja silny opor na poziomie 4,1825 .
USDPLN: opor 2.7520, 2.7885 - mocny, 2.8140. Wsparcie 2.7080, 2.6760 -silne, 2.6090 - silne. Przelamanie w dol ponizej 3m bazy na 2.7555 ponownie kieruje sie na 2.6760/2.6090. Krotkoterminowe wzrosty moga byc ograniczone do poziomu 2.8440.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
(YGZ9 ) Kolejne nowe szczyty w okolicach 1132
Strategia: Kupno na spadkach w kierunku 1120 z celem na poziomie 1131. Stop Loss ponizej 1115.
SREBRO:
(YIZ9)
Strategia: Kupno po przelamaniu poziomu 17.80 z celem na poziomie 18. Stop Loss ponizej 17.70
ROPA :
(CLZ9)
Strategia : Kupno po pokonaniu oporu na poziomie 77.80, cel 79.50. Stop Loss ponizej 76.80
www.saxobank.pl
środa, 11 listopada 2009
11/11 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Kenneth Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Quiet markets overnight with equities remaining well bid and small retracements lower used as opportunities to seemingly buy more. Interestingly although not surprisingly Asia closed pretty much flat and the day ahead looks to be a quiet one with the US out on holiday or at least resting on the back of Veterans day. So in short expect the price action and liquidity to be thin at best.
Otherwise overnight of perhaps most interest was New Zealand’s Bollard out on the wires again jawboning the fate of the Kiwi, again repeating that such strength is undeserved in the local currency and ultimately not of any benefit to a faltering economy. Net result was only a small 30 point retracement lower in the NZDUSD. The AUDUSD on the other hand has once again failed at the 0.9330 mark and while it hasn’t come back too far it still seems to me that it’s running out of steam, but once again I urge caution in selling the cross too early. Look to the AUDNZD and as per previous comment look to sell the rally into 1.2650.
Today the only real event risk lies with the UK in the form of unemployment and the quarterly inflation report. The Cable comes in bid this morning with the market stop hunting in thin liquidity for orders sitting above 1.6750/70. I firmly believe we will see a buy the rumor sell the fact scenario unfold this morning and would be a seller of the cross on squeezes to what is likely to be 1.6830 at a stretch.
The EURGBP has held the 0.8950 level well overnight and looks like its gearing up for another serious attempt at 0.9050, although this will be entirely dependent on the Cable as per above.
As far as the other major crosses, I remain in the same frame of mind as yesterday in that we see tight trading ranges, with the USDJPY being a sell into 90.30, while the EURUSD is a buy on dips into 1.4950. As I print this though Gold makes new highs and the EURUSD goes with it, looking for the 1.5060 level.
Heads up for the BoE today and otherwise, all quiet on the western front.
www.saxobank.pl
Quiet markets overnight with equities remaining well bid and small retracements lower used as opportunities to seemingly buy more. Interestingly although not surprisingly Asia closed pretty much flat and the day ahead looks to be a quiet one with the US out on holiday or at least resting on the back of Veterans day. So in short expect the price action and liquidity to be thin at best.
Otherwise overnight of perhaps most interest was New Zealand’s Bollard out on the wires again jawboning the fate of the Kiwi, again repeating that such strength is undeserved in the local currency and ultimately not of any benefit to a faltering economy. Net result was only a small 30 point retracement lower in the NZDUSD. The AUDUSD on the other hand has once again failed at the 0.9330 mark and while it hasn’t come back too far it still seems to me that it’s running out of steam, but once again I urge caution in selling the cross too early. Look to the AUDNZD and as per previous comment look to sell the rally into 1.2650.
Today the only real event risk lies with the UK in the form of unemployment and the quarterly inflation report. The Cable comes in bid this morning with the market stop hunting in thin liquidity for orders sitting above 1.6750/70. I firmly believe we will see a buy the rumor sell the fact scenario unfold this morning and would be a seller of the cross on squeezes to what is likely to be 1.6830 at a stretch.
The EURGBP has held the 0.8950 level well overnight and looks like its gearing up for another serious attempt at 0.9050, although this will be entirely dependent on the Cable as per above.
As far as the other major crosses, I remain in the same frame of mind as yesterday in that we see tight trading ranges, with the USDJPY being a sell into 90.30, while the EURUSD is a buy on dips into 1.4950. As I print this though Gold makes new highs and the EURUSD goes with it, looking for the 1.5060 level.
Heads up for the BoE today and otherwise, all quiet on the western front.
www.saxobank.pl
wtorek, 10 listopada 2009
10/11 Daily market commentary
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Fair to say I’m feeling a little more chipper this morning and it may just have something to do with taking profit on half of my EURGBP long overnight. Clearly this position and the misery of the Cable was helped by overnight news that Fitch regards the UK the most likely of all developed nations to lose its AAA sovereign rating in the near future. Cable as a result took a swan dive of around 150 points lower and tested the 1.6600/6580 support zone. This was despite the fact that the RICS data posted almost 6 year highs (best results). It tells me that this market is sensitive to the Cable downside and is more likely to move spectacularly lower on the back of a bad inflation report tomorrow. On the day I am a cautious seller of rallies looking to scale in from 1.6680 up to 1.6750.
The EURUSD has retreated a little overnight despite the best performance of the DOW for 2009, but again price action is reminiscent of the last time it got to the 1.5000 area and pullbacks seem to be shallow. I believe we will be testing the 1.5060 area sooner rather than later and moves lower into 1.4930 and 1.4885 provide opportunities to get long into this move. Of interest although likely little impact for the cross today will be the ZEW index survey which is likely to continue its recent positive tone, but if anything I think this will be supportive of the EUR rather than outright bullish.
The AUD overnight failed to really capitalize on the good business confidence data out of Australia and this price action once again suggests to me that an exhaustive rally is in the making. I look for a test of 0.9330/40 to fail and would like to sell into that resistance. Trade minister Simon Crean last night almost verbosely repeated New Zealand’s English (of a few weeks ago) in saying that the domestic economy and exporters in particular will need to get used to a stronger currency and that this is simply representative of the shape of the domestic economy. Hmmm….
Otherwise in the USDJPY my feeling remains, a sell on rallies into 90.30 looking for 89.60 and a break of which shows 88.90.
One last comment on my EURGBP long, the next test is that of the overnight high 0.9015, a persistent and clean break of which takes us into the next resistance zone of 0.9050.
Fair to say I’m feeling a little more chipper this morning and it may just have something to do with taking profit on half of my EURGBP long overnight. Clearly this position and the misery of the Cable was helped by overnight news that Fitch regards the UK the most likely of all developed nations to lose its AAA sovereign rating in the near future. Cable as a result took a swan dive of around 150 points lower and tested the 1.6600/6580 support zone. This was despite the fact that the RICS data posted almost 6 year highs (best results). It tells me that this market is sensitive to the Cable downside and is more likely to move spectacularly lower on the back of a bad inflation report tomorrow. On the day I am a cautious seller of rallies looking to scale in from 1.6680 up to 1.6750.
The EURUSD has retreated a little overnight despite the best performance of the DOW for 2009, but again price action is reminiscent of the last time it got to the 1.5000 area and pullbacks seem to be shallow. I believe we will be testing the 1.5060 area sooner rather than later and moves lower into 1.4930 and 1.4885 provide opportunities to get long into this move. Of interest although likely little impact for the cross today will be the ZEW index survey which is likely to continue its recent positive tone, but if anything I think this will be supportive of the EUR rather than outright bullish.
The AUD overnight failed to really capitalize on the good business confidence data out of Australia and this price action once again suggests to me that an exhaustive rally is in the making. I look for a test of 0.9330/40 to fail and would like to sell into that resistance. Trade minister Simon Crean last night almost verbosely repeated New Zealand’s English (of a few weeks ago) in saying that the domestic economy and exporters in particular will need to get used to a stronger currency and that this is simply representative of the shape of the domestic economy. Hmmm….
Otherwise in the USDJPY my feeling remains, a sell on rallies into 90.30 looking for 89.60 and a break of which shows 88.90.
One last comment on my EURGBP long, the next test is that of the overnight high 0.9015, a persistent and clean break of which takes us into the next resistance zone of 0.9050.
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Wszystko wskazuje na to ze ponad 500 000 bezrobotnych w USA moze byc pozytywnym czynnikiem, ktory wywolal wczoraj dzien imponujacych wzrostow. W dniu wczorajszym nie bylo istotnych danych i praktycznie dzisiaj rowniez ich nie ma (aczkolwiek sondaz ZEW jest godny uwagi). Utrzymujemy nadal nasze stanowisko kupowania ryzykownych aktywow na odbiciach.
Stany Zjednoczone maja deficyt do pokrycia i dlatego zaleja rynek w tym tygodniu 81 miliardami USD w obligacjach. Proces ten rozpoczal sie wczoraj 40 miliardami USD w 3-letnich obligacjach i okazal sie sukcesem z wysokimi wskaznikami bid-to-cover (co oznacza, ze popyt na amerykanskie obligacje jest wysoki). Dzisiaj rozpocznie sie aukcja 25 miliardow USD w 10-letnich obligacjach.
Grupa czlonkow FED bedzie miala dzisiaj przemowienia (Lockhart 14:15, Yellen 15:05, Rosengren 16:15 i Tarullo o 20:30), ktore moga wplynac na zachowanie rynkow.
Ryzyko powraca do gry. Brak sygnałów ze strony G20, które wskazywałyby na zmianę polityki pieniężnej stał się powodem wzrostu apetytu na ryzyko na szerokim rynku. Najprawdopodobniej nastroje te będą się utrzymywać.
Agencja ratingowa FITCH ostrzega UK , ze moze stracic rating AAA , imformacja powoduje znaczne oslabienie funta w godzinach porannych.
Francja – rozczarowujace dane o produkcji przemyslowej -1,5% m/m vs +0,5% przew.
Indeksy
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1088, cel 1104. Stop loss ponizej 1080.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5622, cel 5684. Stop loss ponizej 5595.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5239, cel 5287. Stop loss ponizej 5218.
Waluty
EURUSD: Jesli 1.4950 sie utrzyma oczekujemy testow ostatnich szczytow na 1.5060. Ponizej ryzyko spadku do 1.4915.
USDJPY: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach powyzej 90.00 lub przlamanie poziomu 89.65 w kierunku testu 89.26. Stop loss powyzej 90.50.
EURJPY: Opor znajduje sie na poziomie 135.00. Sprzedawaj odbicie do 134.80 z celem 134.00 a nastepnie 133.00. Stop loss powyzej 135.60.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj wzrosty w przedziale 1.6670-90 spodziewajac sie spadku ponizej 1.66 z celem na 1.6530.
AUDUSD: Wsparcie na 0,9250 musi sie utrzymac, aby wzrostu powyzej poziomu 0.93 byly mozliwe. Ponizej tego poziomu kurs spadnie do 0.92 zanim zobaczymy wzrosty.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 może siegnac 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2324 2: 4.2479 3: 4.2617. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.1927 2: 4.1874 3: 4.1750
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.7610 – silne 2: 2.7555 – silne, 3: 2.7420 - silne
ZŁOTO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku wsparcia na 1095, cel: kolejny test 1110. Stop loss ponizej 1088.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach do 17.20 w kierunku odbicia na poziom 17.45 i 17.60. Stop loss ponizej 17.08.
ROPA:
Strategia (CLZ9): Oczekujemy konsolidacji w przedziale 79.0 – 80.0.
Opracował Paweł Kalinowski
Stany Zjednoczone maja deficyt do pokrycia i dlatego zaleja rynek w tym tygodniu 81 miliardami USD w obligacjach. Proces ten rozpoczal sie wczoraj 40 miliardami USD w 3-letnich obligacjach i okazal sie sukcesem z wysokimi wskaznikami bid-to-cover (co oznacza, ze popyt na amerykanskie obligacje jest wysoki). Dzisiaj rozpocznie sie aukcja 25 miliardow USD w 10-letnich obligacjach.
Grupa czlonkow FED bedzie miala dzisiaj przemowienia (Lockhart 14:15, Yellen 15:05, Rosengren 16:15 i Tarullo o 20:30), ktore moga wplynac na zachowanie rynkow.
Ryzyko powraca do gry. Brak sygnałów ze strony G20, które wskazywałyby na zmianę polityki pieniężnej stał się powodem wzrostu apetytu na ryzyko na szerokim rynku. Najprawdopodobniej nastroje te będą się utrzymywać.
Agencja ratingowa FITCH ostrzega UK , ze moze stracic rating AAA , imformacja powoduje znaczne oslabienie funta w godzinach porannych.
Francja – rozczarowujace dane o produkcji przemyslowej -1,5% m/m vs +0,5% przew.
Indeksy
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1088, cel 1104. Stop loss ponizej 1080.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5622, cel 5684. Stop loss ponizej 5595.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5239, cel 5287. Stop loss ponizej 5218.
Waluty
EURUSD: Jesli 1.4950 sie utrzyma oczekujemy testow ostatnich szczytow na 1.5060. Ponizej ryzyko spadku do 1.4915.
USDJPY: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach powyzej 90.00 lub przlamanie poziomu 89.65 w kierunku testu 89.26. Stop loss powyzej 90.50.
EURJPY: Opor znajduje sie na poziomie 135.00. Sprzedawaj odbicie do 134.80 z celem 134.00 a nastepnie 133.00. Stop loss powyzej 135.60.
GBPUSD: Sprzedawaj wzrosty w przedziale 1.6670-90 spodziewajac sie spadku ponizej 1.66 z celem na 1.6530.
AUDUSD: Wsparcie na 0,9250 musi sie utrzymac, aby wzrostu powyzej poziomu 0.93 byly mozliwe. Ponizej tego poziomu kurs spadnie do 0.92 zanim zobaczymy wzrosty.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 może siegnac 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2324 2: 4.2479 3: 4.2617. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.1927 2: 4.1874 3: 4.1750
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.7610 – silne 2: 2.7555 – silne, 3: 2.7420 - silne
ZŁOTO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku wsparcia na 1095, cel: kolejny test 1110. Stop loss ponizej 1088.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach do 17.20 w kierunku odbicia na poziom 17.45 i 17.60. Stop loss ponizej 17.08.
ROPA:
Strategia (CLZ9): Oczekujemy konsolidacji w przedziale 79.0 – 80.0.
Opracował Paweł Kalinowski
poniedziałek, 9 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Fatalne piątkowe dane: Przeciętny godzinowy wymiar tygodnia pracy bez zmian na 33,0. Stopa bezrobocia – 10,2%. Zatrudnienie poza rolnictwem – 190,0 tys. – Pomimo spadku Wskaźnika aktywności zawodowej o 0,1%.
Później opublikowano dane dotyczące kredytów konsumpcyjnych -14.8 mld USD Pomimo CfC i zanim Citigroup podniosła oprocentowanie kart kredytowych do 30%.
Tak czy inaczej, optymizm na rynkach utrzymał się i kursy odbiły się po spadkach zanotowanych po publikacji danych. Kurs EURUSD wzrasta przy spadającej rentowności obligacji skarbowych.
Indeksy
Na dziś nie zaplanowano publikacji ważnych danych makro ani komunikatów spółek, więc spodziewamy się spokojnego dnia.
SP500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1068 z poziomem docelowym 1078. Stop poniżej 1065.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5513 z poziomem docelowym 5553. Stop poniżej 5495.
Waluty
EURUSD: Kurs sięgnął początkowego poziomu oporu na 1,4980. Wahania poniżej 1,50 przed ewentualnym przebiciem wyżej. Wsparcie: 1,4915.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 mozliwie odbije sie od 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2479 2: 4.2617 3: 4.2739. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.2140 - mocne, 2: 4.2073 3: 4.19
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.8088 2:87610 3: 2.7555 - mocne
Złoto
Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1100 z poziomem docelowym 1110. Stop poniżej 1095.
Ropa
Strategia (CLZ9): Kupuj po przełamaniu poziomu 78,70, poziom docelowy 80. Ustaw stop poniżej 78,25.
Opracował zespół Saxo Bank
Później opublikowano dane dotyczące kredytów konsumpcyjnych -14.8 mld USD Pomimo CfC i zanim Citigroup podniosła oprocentowanie kart kredytowych do 30%.
Tak czy inaczej, optymizm na rynkach utrzymał się i kursy odbiły się po spadkach zanotowanych po publikacji danych. Kurs EURUSD wzrasta przy spadającej rentowności obligacji skarbowych.
Indeksy
Na dziś nie zaplanowano publikacji ważnych danych makro ani komunikatów spółek, więc spodziewamy się spokojnego dnia.
SP500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1068 z poziomem docelowym 1078. Stop poniżej 1065.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5513 z poziomem docelowym 5553. Stop poniżej 5495.
Waluty
EURUSD: Kurs sięgnął początkowego poziomu oporu na 1,4980. Wahania poniżej 1,50 przed ewentualnym przebiciem wyżej. Wsparcie: 1,4915.
EURPLN: Obecny spadek z 4.3280 mozliwie odbije sie od 2m linii trendu na 4.1750. Jeśli 4.1750 zostanie przelamane wówczas otworzy się droga w kierunku 4.1435.
Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2479 2: 4.2617 3: 4.2739. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.2140 - mocne, 2: 4.2073 3: 4.19
USDPLN: Nieudane testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Zatrzymanie wzrostow na tym poziomie wymusilo ruch powrotny w kierunku 2.8330. Ponizej 2.8330 ryzyko spadku w okolice 2,7420.
Opory na poziomach 1: 2.8556 2: 2.8722 3:2,8827. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.8088 2:87610 3: 2.7555 - mocne
Złoto
Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1100 z poziomem docelowym 1110. Stop poniżej 1095.
Ropa
Strategia (CLZ9): Kupuj po przełamaniu poziomu 78,70, poziom docelowy 80. Ustaw stop poniżej 78,25.
Opracował zespół Saxo Bank
piątek, 6 listopada 2009
Codzienny komentarz ekonomiczny
Wczoraj mielismy do czynienia z silnymi wzrostami, ktore zanegowaly ruchy cenowe indeksu S&P500 ze srody. Pozytywny sentyment moze sie utrzymac przed danymi z amerykanskiego rynku pracy lecz inwestorzy moga byc zawiedzeni wskaznikiem bezrobocia, ktory w opinii Saxo Bank ma duze prawdopodobienstwo osiagniecia 10%. Liczba utworzonych miejsc pracy rowniez moze okazac sie rozczarowujaca. W komunikacie ktory ma byc opublikowany o 14.30 czasu polskiego nalezy zwrocic szczegolna uwage na Wskaznik Aktywnosci Zawodowej i Tygodniowy Czas Pracy.
Nasza strategia: Kupuj na ewentualnych odbiciach ceny po publikacji danych. Nie zalecamy otwierania dlugich pozycji przed publikacja informacji o stanie rynku pracy w USA.
Publikacje Danych Makroekonomicznych
USA – 14.30 czasu polskiego – Zmiana liczby zatrudnionych w sektorze pozarolniczym – Rynek oczekuje: -175 000, Poprzednia publikacja: -263 000, Oczekiwania Saxo Bank: -205 000
USA – 14.30 czasu polskiego – Stopa bezrobocia – Rynek oczekuje: 9.9%, Poprzednia publikacja 9.8%, Oczekiwania Saxo Bank: 10.00%
Indeksy
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1051, cel 1060. Stop loss na 1045.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5412, cel 5471. Stop loss na 5380.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5100, cel 5138. Stop loss na 5075.
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy kupowanie na spadkach w kierunku 1.4835-45 na 1.49 i cel na poziomie 1.4950-60. Zalecamy stop loss na 1.48.
USDJPY: Prawdopodobnie utknie w przedziale cenowym 90.40-91.20.
EURJPY: Oczekujemy, iz bedzie sie poruszal w przedziale cenowym 134.25 – 135.35.
GBPUSD: Istnieje szanse na dalsze wzrosty po wczorajszych ruchach. Przelamane 1.6625 otworzy droge w kierunku 1.67, wsparcie na poziomie 1.6540-50
AUDUSD: Kupuj na przelamaniu 0.9145, cel 0.9275. Stop loss na 0.9090
Warte odnotowania jest, iz RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) ma pozytywne nastawienie jesli chodzi o stan australijskiej ekonomii – w zwiazku z tym AUDUSD prawdopodobnie przetestuje ostatnie szczyty w najblizszym tygodniu.
EURPLN: opor 4.2739, 4.2831, 4.3178. Wsparcie 4.2366, 4.2340, 4.2141 silne. Przelom powyzej 4.2950 potwierdzil strukture byka przed obecnym oslabieniem. Tylko ponizej 4.2141, ruch w kierunku 4.3420 moze zostac zaniechany.
USDPLN: opor 2.8827, 2.9073, 2.9463 silny. Wsparcie 2.8395, 2.8330 silne, 2.8088. Para testowala 3m linie trendu na 2.9389. Trwaly przelom moze uruchomic ozywienie w kierunku 2.9955, nawet wyzej. Ponizej 2.8330 powstrzyma byki.
ZŁOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1085, cel 1095. Stop loss ponizej 1080
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kupuj na przelamaniu poziomu 17.62, cel 17.85. Stop loss ponizej 17.50.
ROPA:
Strategia (CLZ9): Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 79, cel 77.50. Stop loss powyzej 80.30.
Przygotował zespół Saxo Bank
Nasza strategia: Kupuj na ewentualnych odbiciach ceny po publikacji danych. Nie zalecamy otwierania dlugich pozycji przed publikacja informacji o stanie rynku pracy w USA.
Publikacje Danych Makroekonomicznych
USA – 14.30 czasu polskiego – Zmiana liczby zatrudnionych w sektorze pozarolniczym – Rynek oczekuje: -175 000, Poprzednia publikacja: -263 000, Oczekiwania Saxo Bank: -205 000
USA – 14.30 czasu polskiego – Stopa bezrobocia – Rynek oczekuje: 9.9%, Poprzednia publikacja 9.8%, Oczekiwania Saxo Bank: 10.00%
Indeksy
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1051, cel 1060. Stop loss na 1045.
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5412, cel 5471. Stop loss na 5380.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5100, cel 5138. Stop loss na 5075.
Waluty
EURUSD: Preferujemy kupowanie na spadkach w kierunku 1.4835-45 na 1.49 i cel na poziomie 1.4950-60. Zalecamy stop loss na 1.48.
USDJPY: Prawdopodobnie utknie w przedziale cenowym 90.40-91.20.
EURJPY: Oczekujemy, iz bedzie sie poruszal w przedziale cenowym 134.25 – 135.35.
GBPUSD: Istnieje szanse na dalsze wzrosty po wczorajszych ruchach. Przelamane 1.6625 otworzy droge w kierunku 1.67, wsparcie na poziomie 1.6540-50
AUDUSD: Kupuj na przelamaniu 0.9145, cel 0.9275. Stop loss na 0.9090
Warte odnotowania jest, iz RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) ma pozytywne nastawienie jesli chodzi o stan australijskiej ekonomii – w zwiazku z tym AUDUSD prawdopodobnie przetestuje ostatnie szczyty w najblizszym tygodniu.
EURPLN: opor 4.2739, 4.2831, 4.3178. Wsparcie 4.2366, 4.2340, 4.2141 silne. Przelom powyzej 4.2950 potwierdzil strukture byka przed obecnym oslabieniem. Tylko ponizej 4.2141, ruch w kierunku 4.3420 moze zostac zaniechany.
USDPLN: opor 2.8827, 2.9073, 2.9463 silny. Wsparcie 2.8395, 2.8330 silne, 2.8088. Para testowala 3m linie trendu na 2.9389. Trwaly przelom moze uruchomic ozywienie w kierunku 2.9955, nawet wyzej. Ponizej 2.8330 powstrzyma byki.
ZŁOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1085, cel 1095. Stop loss ponizej 1080
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kupuj na przelamaniu poziomu 17.62, cel 17.85. Stop loss ponizej 17.50.
ROPA:
Strategia (CLZ9): Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu 79, cel 77.50. Stop loss powyzej 80.30.
Przygotował zespół Saxo Bank
czwartek, 5 listopada 2009
5/11 - Ken Veksler's daily comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Head Trader, Saxo Bank
Well the FOMC proved to be pretty much a non event almost as expected. The tone of the language was not at all different to the last message in September and despite a small spike (basically on stops being cleared) in the EURUSD to 1.4883 and a slightly more buoyant equity market, things stabilized fairly quickly. The DOW then returned almost all of its 150 gains to end the session only slightly (30 points) up. Asia was subdued for the most part but data out of both New Zealand and Australia gave the antipodeans something to think about as both currencies were hit with whipsaw price action. Overall the NZD wore the bulk of the pain and this has given the AUDNZD cross an even bigger boost into overbought territory. On that note I would begin scaling into shorts on this cross and look for 1.2650 to be my ideal short level.
On the day we look for BoE and ECB decisions along with initial and continuing claims from the US, UK manufacturing production and Euro Zone retail sales. The market is pricing in at least another 25bn of QE extension for the UK and really I think the market would in some ways be pleased to see the whole 50bn that’s been spoken about in recent times. Nothing done will see the Cable shoot higher, while 50bn would mean that a nervously long market is cleaned out savagely and we trade 3 figures lower.
The ECB will do nothing and the rhetoric might just mention the need to monitor the situation as it develops, while keeping stimulus programs in place. As always look for a small sell off in the EURUSD on the back of Trichet comments. I would expect the 1.4770/80 level to hold on the day as the market will not do anything of real value ahead of tomorrow’s NFP numbers.
On the day I stand aside as for the last few days I have not been able to get a clean read on this market. For your guide however I am currently short some EURUSD at an average of 1.4867 and also equally short EURJPY. On the former I look for 1.4770 as noted and with the EURJPY I now revise my downside target for the remaining chunk of my position and will take it back around the 132.50 level.
http://pl.saxobank.com/pl/about-us/legal-documentation/pages/ogolne-warunki-korzystania-z-uslug-saxo-bank.aspx
Well the FOMC proved to be pretty much a non event almost as expected. The tone of the language was not at all different to the last message in September and despite a small spike (basically on stops being cleared) in the EURUSD to 1.4883 and a slightly more buoyant equity market, things stabilized fairly quickly. The DOW then returned almost all of its 150 gains to end the session only slightly (30 points) up. Asia was subdued for the most part but data out of both New Zealand and Australia gave the antipodeans something to think about as both currencies were hit with whipsaw price action. Overall the NZD wore the bulk of the pain and this has given the AUDNZD cross an even bigger boost into overbought territory. On that note I would begin scaling into shorts on this cross and look for 1.2650 to be my ideal short level.
On the day we look for BoE and ECB decisions along with initial and continuing claims from the US, UK manufacturing production and Euro Zone retail sales. The market is pricing in at least another 25bn of QE extension for the UK and really I think the market would in some ways be pleased to see the whole 50bn that’s been spoken about in recent times. Nothing done will see the Cable shoot higher, while 50bn would mean that a nervously long market is cleaned out savagely and we trade 3 figures lower.
The ECB will do nothing and the rhetoric might just mention the need to monitor the situation as it develops, while keeping stimulus programs in place. As always look for a small sell off in the EURUSD on the back of Trichet comments. I would expect the 1.4770/80 level to hold on the day as the market will not do anything of real value ahead of tomorrow’s NFP numbers.
On the day I stand aside as for the last few days I have not been able to get a clean read on this market. For your guide however I am currently short some EURUSD at an average of 1.4867 and also equally short EURJPY. On the former I look for 1.4770 as noted and with the EURJPY I now revise my downside target for the remaining chunk of my position and will take it back around the 132.50 level.
http://pl.saxobank.com/pl/about-us/legal-documentation/pages/ogolne-warunki-korzystania-z-uslug-saxo-bank.aspx
5.11.2009 - KOMENTARZ EKONOMICZNY
W swoim komunikacie FOMC po raz kolejny wskazał, że niski poziom stóp utrzyma się przez „dłuższy czas”. W naszej opinii oznacza to przynajmniej pół roku. Dziś komunikat Banku Anglii (rynki spodziewają się zwiększenia zaangażowania banku w nabycia aktywów do 225 mld z 175 mld GBP). To może mieć dodatkowy negatywny wpływ na funta, i - poza słabym dolarem - może stanowić dodatkowe wsparcie dla cen surowców.
Ceny złota poszły w górę po decyzji i oświadczeniu Fed.
Po głosowaniu Kongresu nad ograniczeniem wysokości odsetek od kart kredytowych nastąpiła wyprzedaż akcji (to prawo uderzy w spółki sektora finansowego).
Uważaj na jutrzejsze dane dotyczące zatrudnienia poza rolnictwem i bezrobocia. Szczególności stopa bezrobocia, która może osiągnąć 10% i więcej, może wywołać strach na rynkach.
Indeksy
Sesja w Europie otworzy się na ok.1% spadku, co wygląda dla nas na okazję do zakupów - szczególnie jeżeli Bank Anglii zwiększy wartość swojego zaangażowania w zakupy aktywów.
SP500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1043. Realizuj zyski na poziomie 1050. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 1040
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5400. Realizuj zyski na poziomie 5453. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 5377.
Waluty
EURUSD: Wsparcie w okolicach 1,4825, jesli grajacym na zwyzke na tej parze uda sie utrzymac ten poziom, mozliwe ponowne wzrosty w kierunku 1,49, przelamanie wyzej wymienionego wsparcia otworzy droge do spadkow w kierunku 1,4760
EURPLN: Przelamanie 4.2950 moze potwierdzic wzrostowy sentyment i otworzyc droge w kierunku 4.3944 przez 4.3420. Ponizej 4.2141 wzrosty beda utrudnione. Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2831 2: 4.3180 3: 4.3280. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.2340, 2: 4.2140 3: 4.2073
USDPLN: Testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Przelamanie moze spowodowac ruch w kierunku 2.9955 lub wyzej. Ponizej 2.8330 wzrosty moga zostac powstrzymane. Opory na poziomach 1: 2.9073 2: 2.9463 3:2,9565. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.8500 2:8410 3: 2.8330
ZŁOTO
Nowe, rekordowe poziomy cen zlota w okolicach 1100 dolarów
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1081 i realizuj zyski na poziomie 1091. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 1078
ROPA
Strategia (CLZ9): Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 79.50 i realizuj zyski na poziomie 81.00. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 79.
Przygotował Zespół Saxo Bank
Ceny złota poszły w górę po decyzji i oświadczeniu Fed.
Po głosowaniu Kongresu nad ograniczeniem wysokości odsetek od kart kredytowych nastąpiła wyprzedaż akcji (to prawo uderzy w spółki sektora finansowego).
Uważaj na jutrzejsze dane dotyczące zatrudnienia poza rolnictwem i bezrobocia. Szczególności stopa bezrobocia, która może osiągnąć 10% i więcej, może wywołać strach na rynkach.
Indeksy
Sesja w Europie otworzy się na ok.1% spadku, co wygląda dla nas na okazję do zakupów - szczególnie jeżeli Bank Anglii zwiększy wartość swojego zaangażowania w zakupy aktywów.
SP500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1043. Realizuj zyski na poziomie 1050. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 1040
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5400. Realizuj zyski na poziomie 5453. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 5377.
Waluty
EURUSD: Wsparcie w okolicach 1,4825, jesli grajacym na zwyzke na tej parze uda sie utrzymac ten poziom, mozliwe ponowne wzrosty w kierunku 1,49, przelamanie wyzej wymienionego wsparcia otworzy droge do spadkow w kierunku 1,4760
EURPLN: Przelamanie 4.2950 moze potwierdzic wzrostowy sentyment i otworzyc droge w kierunku 4.3944 przez 4.3420. Ponizej 4.2141 wzrosty beda utrudnione. Opory na poziomach 1: 4.2831 2: 4.3180 3: 4.3280. Wsparcia na poziomach 1:4.2340, 2: 4.2140 3: 4.2073
USDPLN: Testy 3M lini trendu na 2.9389. Przelamanie moze spowodowac ruch w kierunku 2.9955 lub wyzej. Ponizej 2.8330 wzrosty moga zostac powstrzymane. Opory na poziomach 1: 2.9073 2: 2.9463 3:2,9565. Wsparcia na poziomach 1: 2.8500 2:8410 3: 2.8330
ZŁOTO
Nowe, rekordowe poziomy cen zlota w okolicach 1100 dolarów
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1081 i realizuj zyski na poziomie 1091. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 1078
ROPA
Strategia (CLZ9): Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 79.50 i realizuj zyski na poziomie 81.00. Zamykaj pozycje ponizej 79.
Przygotował Zespół Saxo Bank
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