Good morning,
Roll up, roll up the NFP circus is in town! (complete with red haired clowns that always scared me as a child)
And everything on the street is reflecting just that, Asian trading was light and tight with ranges being strictly and painstakingly adhered to, all of which were practically inside yesterdays European session framework. As always there are several pundits out there calling wild and wonderful numbers for the print ranging from -65 to -125, and more importantly trying to predict what the likely market impact will be from either of these extreme prints. I refuse to trade around this number and will tell you folks out there only this much, I am always naturally bearish this print and will expect the worse end of the scale today also.
There are those out there that are talking up the further decline in US treasury yields as a result of this data, but let’s face it, it’s going to happen anyway as it has been for the last 2 weeks, the only difference being the pace at which it continues. And of course the correlated move on the JPY… I remain JPY bullish and feel that on the day the USDJPY will likely test and falsely breakout of the resistance around the 86.30 level taking stops before we resume our downward move. The equity market will move in tandem and like everything else the futures (US) will be dead and buried in nervous anticipation of the print at 14.30CET.
So where to from here today?
Left and then right, up and then down… simple as that really but in all fairness it’s going to be uber quiet out there until this afternoon. Other data on the day includes CAD NFP as well production data out of the UK. I still like my USDCAD long position, however would look for a dip into 1.0100 ahead of the data, to then likely see another jump back into 1.0180. GBPCAD is one to watch and while I never trade round numbers I think this thing is going to take out the 1.6050 level on the back of the CAD data, and there should be at least 80bps on the breakout lower.
Otherwise look for the EURUSD to trade 1.3150/1.3230 before the print and Cable to do likewise around 1.5830/1.5930. Commodity currencies and high beta pairs will be most at risk today but overall I look for false breakouts that then correct and retrace.
Remember folks never trust a red haired clown and bring your helmets out from under your beds, you’ll need them today.
Good weekend and best regards,
Ken Veksler.
piątek, 6 sierpnia 2010
Komentář Kena Vekslera - 06.08
Good morning,
Roll up, roll up the NFP circus is in town! (complete with red haired clowns that always scared me as a child)
And everything on the street is reflecting just that, Asian trading was light and tight with ranges being strictly and painstakingly adhered to, all of which were practically inside yesterdays European session framework. As always there are several pundits out there calling wild and wonderful numbers for the print ranging from -65 to -125, and more importantly trying to predict what the likely market impact will be from either of these extreme prints. I refuse to trade around this number and will tell you folks out there only this much, I am always naturally bearish this print and will expect the worse end of the scale today also.
There are those out there that are talking up the further decline in US treasury yields as a result of this data, but let’s face it, it’s going to happen anyway as it has been for the last 2 weeks, the only difference being the pace at which it continues. And of course the correlated move on the JPY… I remain JPY bullish and feel that on the day the USDJPY will likely test and falsely breakout of the resistance around the 86.30 level taking stops before we resume our downward move. The equity market will move in tandem and like everything else the futures (US) will be dead and buried in nervous anticipation of the print at 14.30CET.
So where to from here today?
Left and then right, up and then down… simple as that really but in all fairness it’s going to be uber quiet out there until this afternoon. Other data on the day includes CAD NFP as well production data out of the UK. I still like my USDCAD long position, however would look for a dip into 1.0100 ahead of the data, to then likely see another jump back into 1.0180. GBPCAD is one to watch and while I never trade round numbers I think this thing is going to take out the 1.6050 level on the back of the CAD data, and there should be at least 80bps on the breakout lower.
Otherwise look for the EURUSD to trade 1.3150/1.3230 before the print and Cable to do likewise around 1.5830/1.5930. Commodity currencies and high beta pairs will be most at risk today but overall I look for false breakouts that then correct and retrace.
Remember folks never trust a red haired clown and bring your helmets out from under your beds, you’ll need them today.
Good weekend and best regards,
Ken Veksler.
Roll up, roll up the NFP circus is in town! (complete with red haired clowns that always scared me as a child)
And everything on the street is reflecting just that, Asian trading was light and tight with ranges being strictly and painstakingly adhered to, all of which were practically inside yesterdays European session framework. As always there are several pundits out there calling wild and wonderful numbers for the print ranging from -65 to -125, and more importantly trying to predict what the likely market impact will be from either of these extreme prints. I refuse to trade around this number and will tell you folks out there only this much, I am always naturally bearish this print and will expect the worse end of the scale today also.
There are those out there that are talking up the further decline in US treasury yields as a result of this data, but let’s face it, it’s going to happen anyway as it has been for the last 2 weeks, the only difference being the pace at which it continues. And of course the correlated move on the JPY… I remain JPY bullish and feel that on the day the USDJPY will likely test and falsely breakout of the resistance around the 86.30 level taking stops before we resume our downward move. The equity market will move in tandem and like everything else the futures (US) will be dead and buried in nervous anticipation of the print at 14.30CET.
So where to from here today?
Left and then right, up and then down… simple as that really but in all fairness it’s going to be uber quiet out there until this afternoon. Other data on the day includes CAD NFP as well production data out of the UK. I still like my USDCAD long position, however would look for a dip into 1.0100 ahead of the data, to then likely see another jump back into 1.0180. GBPCAD is one to watch and while I never trade round numbers I think this thing is going to take out the 1.6050 level on the back of the CAD data, and there should be at least 80bps on the breakout lower.
Otherwise look for the EURUSD to trade 1.3150/1.3230 before the print and Cable to do likewise around 1.5830/1.5930. Commodity currencies and high beta pairs will be most at risk today but overall I look for false breakouts that then correct and retrace.
Remember folks never trust a red haired clown and bring your helmets out from under your beds, you’ll need them today.
Good weekend and best regards,
Ken Veksler.
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