Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Wczorajsze publikacje ekonomiczne byly mieszane, ale restrukturyzacjacja dlugu Dubaju spowodowala spadek 200 punktowy w notowaniach CDS (Credit Default Swap) Dubaju. Innymi slowy, rynek nie widzi problemu.
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Nasze stanowisko na dzisiaj to „kupuj na spadkach“ i uwazamy, iz S&P500 moze przelamac opor na poziomie 1114 i ostatecznie przetestowac kluczowy opor na poziomie 1121 wynikajacy ze zniesien i rozszerzen Fibanacciego.
Uwaga na Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP i Bezowa Ksiege FED .
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 14:15 czasu polskiego Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym ADP Oczekiwania: -150K Wczesniej: -203K
USA 20:00 czasu polskiego Bezowa Ksiega FED
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5752, cel 5802, Stop Loss ponizej 5727.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5283, cel 5324, Stop Loss ponizej 5265.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1104, cel 1112, Stop Loss ponizej 1102.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza w opcjach o krotkim terminie wygasniecia i powinna sie wyrownac lecz jest malo prawdopodobne aby za gamme agresywnie placono w szczegolnosci w zwiazku z przygaszonymi przedzialami zmian cen na rynku fx spot.
AUDUSD: Zmiennosc jest znacznie nizsza niz wczoraj, w zwiazku z kursem spot powoli pnacym sie do gory. Wiekszosc aktywnosci brokerow skupia sie na decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA 17 grudnia z kupcami zarowno poszukujacymi poziomow barier powyzej aktualnego kursu spot jak i ponizej.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Tak dlugo jak kurs znajduje sie powyzej wsparcia na 86.55-60 istnieje ryzyko odbicia do 87.15 mozliwy wzrost do 87.55 zanim ruch wzrostowy zostanie zniesiony.
EURJPY: Ma potencjal wzrostowy lecz moze miec problem z pokonaniem 131.65. Sugerujemy rozgrywanie przedzialu 130.75-131.75.
GBPUSD: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1.6565 lub kup wybicie powyzej 1.6640, ktore moze spowodowac test 1.67. Stop loss ponizej 1.6515.
AUDUSD: Kupuj na spadkach lub wybicie ponad 0.9305 z celem na 0.9350.
EURPLN: opor 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0920 silne, 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne. Odbicie od piatkowego maks 4.1980 kieruje sie w rejon min pomiedzy 4.0920/4.0635. Ponizej moze owtorzyc droge w kierunku 4.000 (poziom psychologiczny). Powyzej 4.1710 moze otworzyc droge do 4.1980.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1208, cel 1220. Stop loss ponizej 1200.
SREBRO:
Strategia: Kup przelamanie poziomu 19.37, cel 19.50. Stop loss ponizej 19.30.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup przelamanie poziomu 78.60, cel 80, Stop loss ponizej 78.
środa, 2 grudnia 2009
2/12 Daily Comment
Ken Veksler, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
Little news of any significance overnight outside of the fact that gold posted new record highs yet again and dragged (in some part) the remaining commodity market with it. We also had the BOJ inject the first round of liquidity into the system in over a year perhaps as a sign that that they are indeed serious on acting on their recent rhetoric (wouldn’t that make a pleasant change).
However the USDJPY was little moved and despite opening a little better bid this morning I still see enough natural supply coming in at 87.50 to keep this move capped. I would be wary of entering into shorts towards that level simply because the bulk of the market sees the same thing I do and stop loss orders sitting above there would significant enough to trip the cross up to 88 or close to it fairly quickly.
In the other majors, we see risk appetite firmly back in favor after the Dubai nonsense seems to be petering out. The DXY is returning to recent lows and the greenback is suffering as a result. The EURUSD is benefiting as a result and still looks on course for the 1.5164 level. Dips could be seen as good opportunities to get long once more, however, don’t be surprised to see this thing retrace all the way to 1.4970/80.
We have now also had persistent rumors for the second day in a row of a large order in the Cable, but no one seems to be able to attach a credible name to the flow let alone pin point what other cross this is being expressed against.
Talk abounded of EURGBP, GBPCHF and straight Cable, but to this point nothing has really come of it and my gut says that traders are simply trying to explain away a move that they clearly missed. On the topic of the Cable I remain a seller of rallies and would today expect moves higher to extend all the way into 1.6650/80. Punters should consider scaling into shorts around those levels and placing stops above 1.6730.
Returning briefly to the gold story (and oil for that matter) the obvious impact is being felt in the USDCAD, this coupled with a weaker USD will see us testing formidable support (also the bottom end of the recent range) at 1.0430, a break here opens up 1.0380. I suggest intraday jumps into 1.0530 and above to be faded looking for the above mentioned targets.
On the data front it promises to be a quiet day with the only releases of note being the UK Construction PMI, US ADP employment change (not a lot of significance) and later tonight the Fed’s beige book. None of the above should throw any shocks into the mix and the day looks to be equity driven once again.
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