11/12 Daily market commentary

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

And indeed it is a good morning, it’s Friday, the sun is shining (even in Copenhagen, sort of) and the weekend beckons oh and of course there was a raft of fantastic Chinese data overnight.

If you’re anything like me you’ll be taking this with a bucket of salt (the Chinese data I mean), but nonetheless it has given the markets a little bit of a kick in the pants and the risk willingness of market participants has resumed if only a little bit. Asian bourses also lifted a little overnight in what was otherwise a relatively quiet session.

The Cable found somewhat of a bid on the back of Moody’s reassuring the market they weren’t going to downgrade the UK (at least not this week) while everything else pretty much languished in apathy with (for the tenth time this week) everyone slowly winding down to the end of the year.

On the day we are light on the European data front with only the UK PPI out, whereas the US session promises some more interest with Advanced retail sales, Import prices and of course the Uni. Of Michigan survey out. I don’t expect too much more topside in the equities today and think the S&P is likely to top out around the 1112 mark on the day. The DXY seems to have taken a pause on its corrective rally for the time being and this too will perhaps add some excitement to the mix, although don’t put your pillows away just yet.

With regard the crosses today and into early next week, from the top I see the following;

EURUSD: Looking tired and levels to watch are stops above the 1.4750 level with moves into 1.4830 not to be ruled out. Having said that though I firmly believe the risk lies in the downside on this pair and it would not surprise me to see it trade through 1.4620/30 and slowly take us down to the 1.4500’s. In short I am a cautious seller of rallies looking for at the very least more sideways consolidation rather than anything explosive.

GBPUSD: As you should all well know by now I am a Cable bear and nothing has changed. Rallies in this cross offer fresh shorting opportunities, but I warn ahead of time that squeezes higher are on the menu at the moment. I would expect 1.6350 and the associated stops to get taken out today and we could see a print into 1.6380 before the day is out, but again these are just more chances to sell or improve averages. 1.6430 and a close above in the very short term (intraday) to me marks a sit and wait to see where the upside settles.

USDCAD: The old chestnut holds true the trend is your friend and in this instance that trend just happens to be sideways range trading and/or consolidation. With that in mind look for 1.0430 on the downside to buy and the topside is 1.0700/50, but in intraday terms 1.0630/50 is just a good a place to sell as any other.

AUDNZD: I have taken back the bulk of my short in this cross and the trailing stop currently sits just above 1.2630, the downside still has 1.2530 and 1.2470 in sight. While we’re in this neck of the woods, it’s worth mentioning the AUDUSD, which I have been calling lower for some time, rallies are opportunities to fade the strength and moves into 0.9250/0.9300 allow fresh shorts to be established looking for 0.9050.

USDJPY: Remains in my view heavy and the price action of the last week is a dead giveaway. Rallies in this cross are capped into 90.30/80 and I am a firm seller at least for the next week or so. I’m hard pressed to be a buyer but would encourage punters to have a look at the range and make up their own minds.

EURGBP: This cross to me is interesting and in the very short term I feel that a break lower is quite likely. Stops below 0.9030 are primed to be taken out and today is likely to be the day for it, which then takes us into 0.9000 and a nice gap from there sees 0.8975/50 open up. It is here that I begin buying the cross or at the very least looking very closely at it. On the topside 0.9070 marks first resistance and thus far has been formidable, which to me says “hello stops” and the break of this level opens the door for a quick move to 0.9100/20.

That should wrap it up for today, to all a good weekend and as always safe helmet wearing.

Obserwuj zachowanie dolara po danych dotyczących sprzedaży detalicznej

Co się dzieje?

Lepsze dane z Chin ( wzrost gospodarczy + produkcja ) mogą spowodować powrót apetytu na ryzyko, głównymi beneficjentami mogą być: ropa i zloto.
Korporacyjne CDS w dolarach spready obligacji korporacyjnych zawężają się coraz bardziej. Powrót apetytu na ryzyko może zostac w pełni odbudowany jesli kurs EURUSD powróci i zdoła się utrzymać powyżej 1.4856 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca ). Zapalnikiem w dniu dzisiejszym mogą być dane z USA dotyczące sprzedaży detalicznej
Amerykanskie indeksy na zielono ( Dow +0.67%, SP500 +0.58%, NASD +0.33% ), japoński NIKKEI 225 +2.48%
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Kalendarium
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:

Warto w dniu dzisiejszym zwrócić uwagę na sprzedaż detaliczną z USA i reakcję dolara na te dane.

UK godz. 10:30 polskiego czasu - Inflacja PPI
ECB godz. 13:15 polskiego czasu - wystąpienie Tricheta
POLSKA godz. 14:00 polskiego czasu - Bilans handlowy
USA godz. 14:30 polskiego czasu - Sprzedaż detaliczna
USA godz. 16:00 polskiego czasu - U. Michigan.

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Waluty

EURUSD: Preferujemy krótką stronę w okolicach 1.4760/80. Kluczowym wsparciem okolice 1.4670. Oporem 55-dniowa średnia krocząca
USDJPY: Wzrosty mogą być kontynuowane. Kupno na dołkach ( okolice 88.60 ), oczekujemy pokonania 89.07 ( tygodniowy pivot ).
EURJPY: Możliwe wzrosty – korekta.
GBPUSD: Wybicie dołem ponizej 1.6250 nie bylo trwale. Konsolidacja – możliwy ruch w gorę w kierunku 1.6380 ( 55-dniowa średnia krocząca)
EURPLN: opór 4.1710 silny , 4.1975/2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.1140, 4.0630, 4.0410. Zdecydowane przełamanie kluczowego wsparcia na 4.0740/4.0635 skupia się na wydłuzenie trendu niedźwiedzia. Jeśli obecne ożywienie zatrzyma się poniżej 4.1975, wówczas niedźwiedzie są nadal faworyzowane ( niższy szczyt ).
USDPLN: opór 2.8408, 2.8440, 2.8555. Wsparcie 2.7857, 2.7236 , 2.7065. Nadal utrzymuje się nad 2.6960. Punktem zwrotnym może być pokonanie przez byki poziomu 2.8300/50 ( ceny zamknięcia )

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Indeksy giełdowe

DAX: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5735, cel 5770. Stop loss poniżej 5722.
FTSE: Kupuj na przełamaniu 5257, cel 5288. Stop loss poniżej 5241.
S&P500: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1105, cel 1110. Stop loss poniżej 1101.
NADAQ 100: Kupuj na przełamaniu 1802, cel 1808. Stop loss poniżej 1798.

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Kontrakty Futures:

ZłOTO: Kupuj w okolicach połomu 1135, cel 1150. Stop loss poniżej 1129.
SREBRO: Kupuj na przełamaniu 17.50, cel 17.70. Stop loss poniżej 17.40.
ROPA (CLF0): Kupuj w okolicach 71, cel 73. Stop loss poniżej 70.10.