Przygotowal Piotr Wilczynski
Apetyt na ryzyko nadal nie slabnie. USD ustanawia nowe minima a surowce pna sie w gore. Ceny korporacyjnych CDS bez zmian a spread obligacji korporacyjnych nadal sie zwezaja.
Uwazamy , ze dane dotyczace nowych wnioskow o zasilek beda lepsze od oczekiwan ( ze wzgledu na krotszy zeszly tydzien ), jednak sugerujemy realizacje z dlužich pozycji tuz przed publikacja ISM w sektorze uslug ( wg. Odczyt bedzie slabszy )
Pierwszy raz od dluzszego czasu EUR bedzie w centrum uwagi, ze wzgledu na odczyt PKB za 3 kw., Sprzedaz detaliczna oraz decyzje ECB w sprawie stop procentowych ( zwlaszcza podczas konferencji Tricheta spodziewamy sie duzego zakresu zmian na EURUSD )
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
EUR 13:45 czasu polskiego - PKB 3 kw
EUR 11:00 czasu polskiego – Sprzdaz detaliczna
EUR 13:45 czasu polskiego – Decyzja ECB w sprawie stop procentowych
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego - cotygodniowa liczba wnioskow o zasilek dla bezrobotnych ( dodatkowo wydajnosc pracy i jednostkowe koszty pracy )
EUR 14:30 czasu polskiego – Konferencja prasowa po decyzji ECB
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego – ISM w sektorze uslug
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego – wystapienie szefa FED Bena Bernanke
Indeksy
DAX: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5771, cel 5834, Stop Loss ponizej 5730.
FTSE: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 5322, cel 5371, Stop Loss ponizej 5300.
S&P500: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1111, cel 1120, Stop Loss ponizej 1107.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest nizsza , nie spodziewamy sie wiekszych zmian przed decyzja ECB dzisiaj oraz jutrzejszymi NFP.
Waluty
EURUSD: Poziom 1.5145 jest najblizsza bariera dla dalszych wzrostow. Nalezy rozgrywac przedzial 1.5065-1.5140 lub kupic wybicie z tego przedzialu z celem na 1.5220.
USDJPY: Sprzedaj teraz ( poziom 87.90 ) lub 88.20, celem jest 87.30, zlecenie stop loss powyzej 88.55.
EURJPY: Szanse na wzrosty w okolice 133, spodziewamy sie oporu na tym poziomie i ruchu w bok w przedziale 132-133.
GBPUSD: Spodziewamy sie testu poziomu 1.6755.
AUDUSD: Pokonanie 0.9295/00, pozwoli na wzrosty w kierunku 0.9360, mozliwe 0.94.
EURPLN: opor 4.1210, 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4,00/01 – psychologiczne. Przelamanie wsparcia na poziomie 4.0920 otwiera możliwość testu poziomu 4.0740/4.0635 oraz psychologicznego poziomu 4.00. Scenariusz taki może zostac zanegowany zanegowany powyżej poziomu 4.17.
USDPLN: opor 2.7835, 2.8350 silny, 2.8440. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Kontrakty Futures:
ZLOTO
Strategia: Kupuj na spadkach w kierunku 1213, cel 1223. Stop loss ponizej 1210.
SREBRO:
Strategia: sprzedaj po przelamaniu poziomu 19.09, cel 18.88. Stop loss powyzej 19.17.
ROPA :
(CLF0)
Strategia : Kup po pokonaniu 77.10, cel 79, Stop loss ponizej 76.10
czwartek, 3 grudnia 2009
3/12 Daily Comment
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.
In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.
On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.
We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.
Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.
The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.
And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.
Today promises to be an important day not so much as a result of the raft of data we have ahead, but more so because several crosses and indices are at the precipice of either breaking major levels or staging significant retracements of recent gains.
In detail on the data front we have the ECB out and of most interest will be what (if anything) they decide to do on the 1yr refinance rate. Any mention of an increase in the price or alternatively a shortening of the loan duration window will send the EURUSD into a hissy fit of unbridled volatility, and my money firmly sits on stops being taken out at the 1.5125/30 level and a strong drive into 1.5165, from there expect some serious profit taking into 1.5050/30. But as I said it will be volatile out there today folks.
On the USDJPY we took out the much anticipated stops above the 87.50 level and got 87.90 on the move. The cross still looks bid but I prefer to fade the move and sell on rallies looking for stops to be placed above 88.30. There should be an orderly (read as boring) move back into 87.20/00 over the course of the remaining week.
We also have the initial and continuing claims out of the US today, and truly expect a mixed bag that will most likely leave the market a little confused, the timing of the release isn’t helped by coinciding with the Trichet press conference.
Euro zone GDP will also be worth keeping an eye on, although at first glance I would think that any negative sentiment expressed in the EURUSD as a result should be used as an opportunity to initiate spec longs.
The AUDUSD is in my view approaching the spot where I would think about starting to fade the rally and I am a seller into 0.9330/50, I think this market is due a squeeze and small clean out.
And finally the Cable is also looking overbought and I look at scaling into shorts between 1.6730 and 1.6825, stops above 1.6865 and limits around 1.6550 and 1.6470. Obviously this is not an intraday trade, but one worth looking at a little closer as this thing is simply now trading a sideways range.
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