Przygotował Paweł Kalinowski
Wczorajszy wskaznik ISM dla sektora uslugowego (ISM Non-Manufacturing) byl wystarczajaco zly by spowodowac szeroko zakrojona redukcje ryzyka. W zwiazku ze spadkiem notowan rzadowych i korporacyjnych CDS (Credit Default Swaps) mozemy zobaczyc odbicie w apetycie na ryzyko przed danymi o rynku pracy z USA. Aczkolwiek uwazamy, iz rynek pracy zawiedzie i w zwiazku z tym nalezy realizowac zyski lub otwierac krotkie pozycje przed publikacja.
Konferencja prasowa ECB w dniu wczorajszym wskazywala, iz podejmuje on drobne kroki w kierunku normalizacji polityki pienieznej. Kurs EUR wzrosl po tej informacji, ale Trichet w ciagly podkreslal, iz zmiana w 1-rocznej, 1% linii kredytowej nie powinna byc widziana w ten sposob – kurs EUR spadl po tej informacji. Jest trudno jednak zaprzeczyc, iz FED jest przed ECB w tym cyklu i oczekujemy, ze USD bedzie znajdowal sie ponownie pod presja w nastepnym tygodniu.
Publikacje Makrekonomiczne:
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Zatrudnienie w sektorze pozarolniczym (LISTOPAD) SAXO BANK Oczekuje: -139000 Konsensus: -125000 Wczesniej: -190000
USA 14:30 czasu polskiego Wskaznik bezrobocia (LISTOPAD) SAXO BANK Oczekuje: 10.3% Konsensus: 10.2% Wczesniej: 10.2%
USA 16:00 czasu polskiego Zamowienia w przemysle miesiac-do-miesiaca (PAZDZIERNIK) SAXO BANK Oczekuje: -0.3% Konsensus: 0.0% Wczesniej: 0.9%
Indeksy
DAX: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 5763, cel 5700, Stop loss powyzej 5786.
FTSE: Sprzedawaj na wrostach w kierunku 5305, cel 5229, Stop loss powyzej 5333.
S&P500: Sprzedaj przelamanie poziomu 1097, cel 1089. Stop loss powyzej 1102.
Opcje walutowe
EURUSD: Zmiennosc jest ponownie nizsza a ECB nie dal wielkiego impetu. Z rynkiem nastawionym na spadek Gamma w tym przedziale, jakakolwiek niespodzianka w danych o zatrudnieniu w USA moze spowodowac wzrost zmiennosci.
AUDUSD: 1-miesieczne opcje znajdywaly dzisiejszego ranka kupcow, w gore z 13.5 do 13.65. Zauwazylismy zainteresowanie kupnem AUD opcji sprzedazy z poziomami barier ponizej aktualnego kursu SPOT po decyzji w sprawie stop procentowych w USA.
Waluty
EURUSD: Sprzedawaj wzrosty do 1.5080 z celem ponizej 1.50. Stop loss powyzej 1.5150.
USDJPY: Odbicie moze rozszerzyc sie do 88.50, mozliwy poziom 88.75 przed potencjalnymi spadkami. Wsparcie na 87.90.
EURJPY: Spodziewamy sie dalszej konsolidacji w przedziale 132.00-133.00
GBPUSD: Spodziewamy sie, iz opor na 1.6580, ograniczy wzrosty by zapoczatkowach ruch spadkowy do 1.6460. Stop loss powyzej 1.6620.
AUDUSD: Oczekujemy, iz wsparcie na poziomie 0.9195 utrzyma sie lecz pozniej spodziewamy sie trendu bocznego w przedziale 0.92-0.9275.
EURPLN: opor 4.1210, 4.1710, 4.2020 silny, 4.2125 silny. Wsparcie 4.0740 silne, 4.0635 silne, 4,00/01 – psychologiczne. Przelamanie wsparcia na poziomie 4.0920 otwiera możliwość testu poziomu 4.0740/4.0635 oraz psychologicznego poziomu 4.00. Scenariusz taki może zostac zanegowany zanegowany powyżej poziomu 4.17.
USDPLN: opor 2.7390, 2.7835, 2.8350 silny. Wsparcie 2.6960 silne, 2.6760 silne, 2.6090 silne. Przedluzenie od piatkowego maks 2.8300 ponownie moze kierunkowac sie na 2.6960. Ponizej sygnaly przedluzenia trendu niedzwiedzia przez 2.6760 do 2.6090. Poziom 2.7835 chroni 2.8300.
Surowce:
ZLOTO: Sprzedawaj na przelamaniu poziomu 1200, cel 1185. Stop loss powyzej 1206.
SREBRO: Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 19.10, cel 18.80. Stop loss powyzej 19.25.
ROPA (CLF0): Sprzedawaj na wzrostach w kierunku 77.25, cel 74.50. Stop loss powyzej 78.50.
piątek, 4 grudnia 2009
4/12 Watch out for Non-farm payrolls this afternoon (daily comment)
Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory
Feeling a little more subdued this morning and quite happy that its Friday, and better still a Friday that features the NFP numbers this afternoon. All in all that simply means that a market which was deathly quiet overnight will continue in the same vein until this afternoon when the market gets all giddy with nervous anticipation waiting to find out just how deep in the proverbial toilet the US really is.
Estimates on the street are pointing to a smaller (better) number on the actual change, but also a worse number on the overall official rate rising towards 10.3/4%. I (surprisingly even for me) expect a rather flat number and somewhat of an anticlimax to the whole event.
I think the rate will stay around the same level while the number might actually print a larger positive than the market anticipates (chances are though this will be eroded with revisions).
It really is all quiet on the western front otherwise, as the market is in no rush to commit to anything really fundamental relating to FX moves and the equity markets are running out of puff but still showing a bid tone coming into year end.
With regard the majors I see the following unfold into the weekend and perhaps into the early parts of next week;
USDJPY: It seems like the jawboning continues out of the officials down there, but for a change there seems to be some (if not limited) back up to it in the form of additional liquidity being thrown into the system. They claim this isn’t the end of it but until I see anything more firm I believe that further Yen weakness is limited and what we’ve seen so far t his week is simply a small clean out. We need to see 90.30/80 cleared and closed above on a daily basis to confirm that this intermediate downtrend is in fact over. I remain skeptical and therefore bearish the cross, sell rallies is the call and don’t be shy about scaling in. Targets remain the previous lows into 85.00
GBPUSD: I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today the Cable trades a range and I am a seller of the Cable strength into 1.6750/6800 targets on the bottom end are 1.6550 and 1.6470. It worked yesterday and believe it will continue to work, a seemingly easy way to earn approximately 1.75% on the move. The only cautionary note is that while it is indeed a range, I only play the sell side, as I fundamentally believe that the risk is for a breakout from 1.6470 into at least 1.6250.
EURUSD: This puppy is running out of puff, but having said that as I have maintained all week, pullbacks may prove to be deeper than anticipated into 1.4850, but even these provide good opportunities to gear up again into fresh longs with the topside limited into 1.5160/5200.
AUDUSD: Topside is limited at 0.9330/60 and I fade the move higher looking for retracements into 0.9150 and lower. There is plenty of hype around this cross, but being Australian myself I am naturally hesitant to believe it all or get caught up in the euphoria.
USDCAD: The good thing about coming into year end is that without any real commitment from market participants crosses naturally fall into ranges, and in the case of the USDCAD there is no exception I still sell 1.0700/0800 and buy it back at 1.0430/50. Not unlike the Cable though I only play this range from the short side.
To all I say a good weekend and safe helmet wearing.
Feeling a little more subdued this morning and quite happy that its Friday, and better still a Friday that features the NFP numbers this afternoon. All in all that simply means that a market which was deathly quiet overnight will continue in the same vein until this afternoon when the market gets all giddy with nervous anticipation waiting to find out just how deep in the proverbial toilet the US really is.
Estimates on the street are pointing to a smaller (better) number on the actual change, but also a worse number on the overall official rate rising towards 10.3/4%. I (surprisingly even for me) expect a rather flat number and somewhat of an anticlimax to the whole event.
I think the rate will stay around the same level while the number might actually print a larger positive than the market anticipates (chances are though this will be eroded with revisions).
It really is all quiet on the western front otherwise, as the market is in no rush to commit to anything really fundamental relating to FX moves and the equity markets are running out of puff but still showing a bid tone coming into year end.
With regard the majors I see the following unfold into the weekend and perhaps into the early parts of next week;
USDJPY: It seems like the jawboning continues out of the officials down there, but for a change there seems to be some (if not limited) back up to it in the form of additional liquidity being thrown into the system. They claim this isn’t the end of it but until I see anything more firm I believe that further Yen weakness is limited and what we’ve seen so far t his week is simply a small clean out. We need to see 90.30/80 cleared and closed above on a daily basis to confirm that this intermediate downtrend is in fact over. I remain skeptical and therefore bearish the cross, sell rallies is the call and don’t be shy about scaling in. Targets remain the previous lows into 85.00
GBPUSD: I said it yesterday, and I’ll say it again today the Cable trades a range and I am a seller of the Cable strength into 1.6750/6800 targets on the bottom end are 1.6550 and 1.6470. It worked yesterday and believe it will continue to work, a seemingly easy way to earn approximately 1.75% on the move. The only cautionary note is that while it is indeed a range, I only play the sell side, as I fundamentally believe that the risk is for a breakout from 1.6470 into at least 1.6250.
EURUSD: This puppy is running out of puff, but having said that as I have maintained all week, pullbacks may prove to be deeper than anticipated into 1.4850, but even these provide good opportunities to gear up again into fresh longs with the topside limited into 1.5160/5200.
AUDUSD: Topside is limited at 0.9330/60 and I fade the move higher looking for retracements into 0.9150 and lower. There is plenty of hype around this cross, but being Australian myself I am naturally hesitant to believe it all or get caught up in the euphoria.
USDCAD: The good thing about coming into year end is that without any real commitment from market participants crosses naturally fall into ranges, and in the case of the USDCAD there is no exception I still sell 1.0700/0800 and buy it back at 1.0430/50. Not unlike the Cable though I only play this range from the short side.
To all I say a good weekend and safe helmet wearing.
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